Inflation

[wayneL]

.... And, I keep getting ads on my timeline about intermittent fasting. Not sure what that says about my internet surfing habits, but my Mormonesque emergency food supply ensures that probably will never happen.

 

[divs4ever]

.... And, I keep getting ads on my timeline about intermittent fasting. Not sure what that says about my internet surfing habits, but my Mormonesque emergency food supply ensures that probably will never happen.

depending on what you have stashed , that can be awesome emergency currency ( wink )

 

[wayneL]

depending on what you have stashed , that can be awesome emergency currency ( wink )

I should probably be more secretive about it, methinks.

They'll never find my PMs, but my year's supply of anchovies and white truffles might be a bit easier to find

 

[divs4ever]

anchovies for my rice or pasta , maybe we can trade ( damn shame the local Post Office ran out of jerky )

PS think long term this mess could go on for several years

cheers

 

[wayneL]

anchovies for my rice or pasta , maybe we can trade ( damn shame the local Post Office ran out of jerky )

PS think long term this mess could go on for several years

cheers

Since I had my jaw dislocated earlier this year, jerky is off the table unfortunately. Will have to be something pretty spectacular to trade my anchovies for... A year's supply of blue bone groper and I'm in

 

[divs4ever]

sorry didn't stock-pile fish , however the rural property has a dam and possibly some silver perch survived and bred , i hoarded some hooks and fishing line instead ( i bet i only catch the eels , not much of a fisherman )

besides the tins go off after an extended period

 

[wayneL]

sorry didn't stock-pile fish , however the rural property has a dam and possibly some silver perch survived and bred , i hoarded some hooks and fishing line instead ( i bet i only catch the eels , not much of a fisherman )

besides the tins go off after an extended period

Yabbies?

 

[divs4ever]

Yabbies?

maybe , there were shell from dead ones before the dam was put in about 50 metres away , haven't seen a live one ( there ) but some shells weren't ancient , since the eels found a way in maybe there are some yabbies as well but they are only small ( the shells ) less than a 20 cent piece across the body )

two different species of eel though ( and obviously the transiting turtles )

 

[over9k]

https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/agribusiness-etf-moo/

Wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.

 

[waterbottle]

Vale, the Santa rally
St Jerome said no more pumps
Farewell, dear market

 

[divs4ever]

looks like we finally get to see TRUE market sentiment

( this could look scary )

 

[over9k]

Yeah it doesn't look like a good end to the year does it?

Rasputitsa due in ukraine/russia soon too.

 

[over9k]

Bank of japan slaughters everything, the euro's put a price cap on russian natural gas in place that essentially guarantees a shortage, good times.

 

[over9k]

So now that BOIL's tanked in response to the gas price cap in europe, do I buy some for when the inevitable shortage happens and they have to lift the cap to get what they need?

Pure degen play but the logic is sound. Hmmmm.

 

[waterbottle]

So now that BOIL's tanked in response to the gas price cap in europe, do I buy some for when the inevitable shortage happens and they have to lift the cap to get what they need?

Pure degen play but the logic is sound. Hmmmm.

I thought about this too, but too much market interference, no longer being governed by pure supply-demand (was it ever?).
Also, winter's already started in Europe and they don't seem to be struggling too much...

 

[over9k]

I thought about this too, but too much market interference, no longer being governed by pure supply-demand (was it ever?).
Also, winter's already started in Europe and they don't seem to be struggling too much...

Tanks were brimmed in anticipation though, if they don't last (doubtful they will) then it's either up the price or rationing time.

 

[mullokintyre]

I thought about this too, but too much market interference, no longer being governed by pure supply-demand (was it ever?).
Also, winter's already started in Europe and they don't seem to be struggling too much...

The Weather Channel has suggested that the Northern Hemisphere, in particular western continental USA, is about to get a severe cold weather bomb.
As to whether this weather translates into colder EU weather, and hence greater demand for gas, is a moot point.
Bloombergs said on November 13 that the EU was likely to get a warmer winter this year.
So far, it would appear that is correct.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

The Weather Channel has suggested that the Northern Hemisphere, in particular western continental USA, is about to get a severe cold weather bomb.
As to whether this weather translates into colder EU weather, and hence greater demand for gas, is a moot point.
Bloombergs said on November 13 that the EU was likely to get a warmer winter this year.
So far, it would appear that is correct.
Mick

interesting , a 'cold bomb ' MIGHT result in heavier snowfall in the mountains giving California access to more water in the Spring thaw ( and potentially more stable hydro-power for 2023 )

but time will tell

 

[waterbottle]

I've been keeping an eye on inflation numbers given the recent downward revision to jobs numbers in the US. Looks the Fed is fast approaching their 2% target, current headline CPI projections by the Cleveland Fed (who've been quite accurate compared to official figures) is at 3.47% annualised, compared to ~7% in July 2022!
Core CPI also trending down with a substantial reduction.



How much further will the Fed go?
According to historical data, market tends to bottom once the Fed is done cutting. So what does the Fed do once the CPI bottoms?

 

[waterbottle]

Correction for previous post, CPI was 7% in October, estimated CPI in December is 3.47% so far.

What does the Fed tend to do when CPI starts to fall? Fed funds rate follows the CPI... Question now is will they plateau? Do they need to plateau given they've been hiking into a falling CPI?