Inflation

[over9k]

You think they did, but you have no evidence that this is the case. All the evidence from people who study how markets function shows the opposite.

If you knew more about how markets worked, you would realise you're wrong.

Oh yeah, the fact that we see almost vertical movements within seconds of a data dump or fed statement like this every single time such a data dump or fed comment occurs:




Is just a giant coincidence that also just happens to occur every single time as well.

Give me a break.

 

[over9k]

Come on dude, let's hear you explain why we see things like a 3% move in NDX futures within 60 seconds of a jpowell statement. You assert that it's not the fed causing it, so let's hear it, why does it really occur so much so quickly so consistently?

I'll wait.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Come on dude, let's hear you explain why we see things like a 3% move in NDX futures within 60 seconds of a jpowell statement. You assert that it's not the fed causing it, so let's hear it, why does it really occur so much so quickly so consistently?

I'll wait.

Keep waiting, I don't mind if you want to delude yourself.

 

[over9k]

The resolution of event risk moves markets today just as it always has. Options dealers and market makers especially. It's the event and participants, not the content of the event that drives the price action. As a stylised simple example, let's say a lot of people were buying puts into the CPI print. After the CPI is over they no longer need the puts because the event has passed. Now the options dealers need to do a lot of trading to handle that flow. It's a lot of money. It shows up as price action for a few days. It doesn't mean anything.

Options dealers and market makers do not have a view on the Fed. They do not care.

Absolute shite. An options trader doesn't know the exact second powell is going to make some kind of statement in response to a question or whatever. You can buy options that expire minutes/seconds after the CPI dump or whatever if you want but you have no idea when powell is or isn't going to say something that'll move markets massively.

It's the event and participants, not the content of the event that drives the price action.

Yes, and it's the content of the event that dictates what the participants will do. Again, how are you not getting this?

It doesn't mean anything.

Tell me exactly what you mean by a big move in response to a data dump or fed comment meaning something.


Honestly, the idea that markets don't respond to what the fed does/says is just about the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

Anything that effects markets is relevant. The more it effects them, the more relevant it is, and the fed effects things massively.

 

[over9k]

Keep waiting, I don't mind if you want to delude yourself.

Hah, that's what I thought.

You're an idiot.

 

[over9k]

Great chart from @LizAnnSonders (Chief Investment Strategist for Schwab) on Twitter

US inflation YoY comparisons are now crazy hard. Even +0.2% MoM every month is going to have CPI at 2% by mid '23. Anything less than that could be staring down a deflationary barrel.

View attachment 147675

Inflation swaps etc are pricing this in already.

Fed needs to back way off right now.

Hang on a minute mate, why are you saying the fed needs to back way off right now? I thought the fed was irrelevant?

I mean, if the fed's irrelevant, it can't effect things can it? So why ask for action from something that can't make any difference? Seems a bit odd?

 

[divs4ever]

Come on dude, let's hear you explain why we see things like a 3% move in NDX futures within 60 seconds of a jpowell statement. You assert that it's not the fed causing it, so let's hear it, why does it really occur so much so quickly so consistently?

I'll wait.

since several ( former ) Fed officials have been detected front-running the markets and HFTs usually including news-filtering software a VERY quick response hints at fore-knowledge and/or automated trading

perhaps that question would be better put to the regulators ( who have the ability to analyze those transactions in depth after the fact )

 

[waterbottle]

Looks like the ECB and BoE also hiked overnight, both planning on increasing further into 2023.

Phil Lowe is going to have to backpedal...

 

[over9k]

If something truly crazy happens, like oil gapping to $200-300, is raising rates really going to be the right reaction? They will be knifing the economy into a crisis. I just don't see it.

But the fed's irrelevant bro, how could it raise rates and knife the economy into a crisis? The fed doesn't effect markets according to you.

 

[over9k]

@Joe Blow This guy is either galactically stupid and genuinely believes what he's saying or he doesn't and he's just arguing in bad faith. Either way, it's getting tiresome. Every post he makes is just one giant case of "You're wrong and stupid. I'm not going to explain why, you just are".

So I'm voting for him to explain his assertions or ban.

 

[Joe Blow]

@Joe Blow This guy is either galactically stupid and genuinely believes what he's saying or he doesn't and he's just arguing in bad faith. Either way, it's getting tiresome.

If no common ground can be found, and no progress is being made, then I would consider the use of the software's ignore feature. It's a last resort move, but that's what it's there for.

 

[over9k]

Keep waiting, I don't mind if you want to delude yourself.

I'm just going to leave this here for anyone seriously thinking about listening to this idiot. I'm hitting ignore.

 

[waterbottle]

We're debating semantics at this point. Even if you didn't think the Fed was 'relevant' to the economy/market, the fact that the market movements are correlated with Fed members speaking is enough of a reason to take notice.

 

[over9k]

We're debating semantics at this point. Even if you didn't think the Fed was 'relevant' to the economy/market, the fact that the market movements are correlated with Fed members speaking is enough of a reason to take notice.

It's almost as if they're in some way connected.

 

[mullokintyre]

Looks like the ECB and BoE also hiked overnight, both planning on increasing further into 2023.

Phil Lowe is going to have to backpedal...

And you can add Canada to the list .
Increased by 50 basis points on December 7th.
This list of CB's that changed interest rates recently includes only 5 out of 26 Cb's to have dropped interest rates.
Mick

 

[over9k]

Worth noting that central banks don't all meet with the same frequency - pretty sure the fed's 8x per year vs the rba being 11x (just off the top of my head) for example.

 

[Smurf1976]

If no common ground can be found, and no progress is being made, then I would consider the use of the software's ignore feature. It's a last resort move, but that's what it's there for.

Personally I'm happy to agree to disagree and won't choose to block anyone I disagree with.

I'm just really not following the reasoning being presented but I'll live.....

 

[over9k]

This is european for "we are f**ked".

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 150556

This is european for "we are f**ked".

subject to revision , of course

but am very glad in hindsight i didn't buy into Westfield to get the EU REIT exposure after the take-over ( URW i think it is )

although my investments into NZ as an alternative ( to the EU ) might still come back to bite hard

sometimes my dithering is a good thing

 

[waterbottle]

Just saw this on WSB, going to dig around a bit more and see if this is relevant or not....