Inflation

[waterbottle]

Hmmmmmmmm... So Fed has been raising interest rates based on overestimated jobs data... That last sentence in the bottom suggests there might be further downward revisions... So are we in a recession?

 

[divs4ever]

Hmmmmmmmm... So Fed has been raising interest rates based on overestimated jobs data... That last sentence in the bottom suggests there might be further downward revisions... So are we in a recession?

View attachment 150561

my bet is YES and maybe for more than a year , maybe even including the outrageous money-printing as real GDP wedged into the calculations (political manipulations )

 

[sptrawler]

The thing feeding inflation IMO is low unemployment, high wages and lack of enthusiasm.
Unless we can get more people on the 'program' how the hell can we keep Sydney/Melbourne house prices buoyant??

Australia’s skilled migration program needs overhaul to boost economy, report says

Grattan Institute says government should target permanent skilled visas at younger, higher-skilled migrants

www.theguardian.com

From the article:
A better skilled migration program could be the solution to Australia’s major economic challenges, a new report says.

A lack of productivity growth, growing debt in the federal budget and the economy’s transition to net-zero could be assisted by key reforms, the submission by the public policy thinktank, the Grattan Institute, to the federal government’s migration review has said.


In the past decade, only a quarter of permanent visas were issued to migrants based on their skills with the rest granted through family and humanitarian streams.

The submission said while this reflected the diverse objectives of Australia’s migration program, the government should target permanent skilled visas at younger, higher-skilled migrants.

This would allow them to stay in Australia for longer and contribute to the economy.

A second recommendation was to change policy to ensure permanent employer sponsorship was available for workers earning more than $85,000 a year in any industry.
The institute said this would better target migrants with valuable skills, simplify the sponsorship process, offer clearer pathways to permanent residency and boost Australian government budgets.

 

[over9k]

Markets getting very worried about things now, not from a recession point of view but because the labour market is so hot that the fed can keep pumping rates without nosediving the country into mass unemployment, i.e there might be a huge dump in asset values and a "recession" from an investment perspective but not from an on-the-ground employment perspective. This is the "technical" recession they talk about - GDP dropping but employment still remaining strong.

In other words, we're going to see a significant wealth/balance shift from capital into labour and so growth plays are essentially done.

 

[over9k]

You invest in short duration and what's driving the rate increases, duh.

 

[over9k]

Well worth a listen, especially from 20 mins on.

 

[over9k]

Guidance is hawkish.

Fed now expecting a terminal rate of 5.1% with a GDP of 0.5%.

Feds going to crash the economy.

Lets wait for the press conference

Seems... optimistic.

I also can't see markets doing much positioning for this 12-24 months out either. A lot can happen in the meantime.

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 150629

Seems... optimistic.

I also can't see markets doing much positioning for this 12-24 months out either. A lot can happen in the meantime.

Well if the Fed was acting on shoddy on employment data that was overestimating jobs created by ~1 million in June 2022 (and who know's what thereafter), then they've been hiking into a rising unemployment rate that they never knew about (or did they?....). I think there's some credence to what the market is predicting, holing rates steady for a year might be too far.

 

[over9k]

Well if the Fed was acting on shoddy on employment data that was overestimating jobs created by ~1 million in June 2022 (and who know's what thereafter), then they've been hiking into a rising unemployment rate that they never knew about (or did they?....). I think there's some credence to what the market is predicting, holing rates steady for a year might be too far.

I was speaking from a "there's still plenty more oil supply problems to come" perspective

 

[wayneL]

Well worth a listen, especially from 20 mins on.

Another, not dissimilar, view.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Another, not dissimilar, view.

For some reason, I still listen to Kyle Bass when he talks, anyone else who does so should handicap everything that comes out of his mouth with his incessantly wrong views on Japan and then China and Hong Kong that demonstrate he has no understanding of how their financial systems works and the absurd amount of money he has lost clients betting on his misunderstanding.

Kyle Bass's Most Famous Trade Is A Disaster, And It Is Never Going To Work Out

www.businessinsider.com

(unfortunately the original thread linked by Mr Mojo Risin is blocked now so you can't see it but it was a masterpiece of debunking...the FT screenshot for John Greenwood is still in there)

He's one of many financial commentators who would have been laughed out of the room if it wasn't for their political views overlapping with those who will boost anyone espousing those views.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Anyone else remember that time in 2011 when Kyle Bass bought 20 million US nickels for their metal value because he was convinced hyperinflation was coming

 

[wayneL]

For some reason, I still listen to Kyle Bass when he talks, anyone else who does so should handicap everything that comes out of his mouth with his incessantly wrong views on Japan and then China and Hong Kong that demonstrate he has no understanding of how their financial systems works and the absurd amount of money he has lost clients betting on his misunderstanding.

Kyle Bass's Most Famous Trade Is A Disaster, And It Is Never Going To Work Out

www.businessinsider.com

(unfortunately the original thread linked by Mr Mojo Risin is blocked now so you can't see it but it was a masterpiece of debunking...the FT screenshot for John Greenwood is still in there)

He's one of many financial commentators who would have been laughed out of the room if it wasn't for their political views overlapping with those who will boost anyone espousing those views.

That's how it rolls in the macro world, big wins, big losses. Almost every macro commentator out there has been spectacularly wrong in some way or another.

Caveat Emptor.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

That's how it rolls in the macro world, big wins, big losses. Almost every macro commentator out there has been spectacularly wrong in some way or another.

Caveat Emptor.

There's "I was wrong because of some unforseen externality" and then there's "I was wrong because I think I'm an expert at something that I demonstrably know nothing about but I'll keep starting funds anyway".

Bass is definitely the latter.

 

[divs4ever]

well i probably shouldn't mock anyone else i am still waiting for the crash i predicted for mid 2013 ( lucky for me some of those 'safe-haven ' plays i made paid off anyway )

 

[wayneL]

There's "I was wrong because of some unforseen externality" and then there's "I was wrong because I think I'm an expert at something that I demonstrably know nothing about but I'll keep starting funds anyway".

Bass is definitely the latter.

To be honest, I wouldn't give either of you my money.

I will fark up my own finances thanks very bloody much.

 

[divs4ever]

To be honest, I wouldn't give either of you my money.

I will fark up my own finances thanks very bloody much.

that is mostly my plan , although i do park SOME cash with ETFs , LICs and REITs ( because i can't manage to get those results by myself )

 

[over9k]

I will fark up my own finances thanks very bloody much

But then how will sapphire pay her rent this week?

 

[wayneL]

But then how will sapphire pay her rent this week?

There are always contra deals

 

[divs4ever]

Aussies are skipping meals to get by​

Aussies are skipping meals to get by

#recession #firstworldproblems #heisesays Aussies are skipping meals to get by. Are times really getting that tough, or are these just "First World Problems"? Twitch https://www.twitch.tv/heisesays ...

odysee.com

got used to skipping meals because the workload blew out ( and the retail outlets were closed )

now i get to fast specifically for my blood tests ( all that practice worked out , who knew ?? )