Inflation

[Smurf1976]

I am wondering what a "huge portfolio" is these days.

I suppose it could also be defined in terms of the number of assets held.

Eg someone directly owns shares in 100 companies. That's a large portfolio by one measure at least, regardless of the $ amount.

 

[over9k]

All my gains are from ridiculous amounts of luck mixed in with being a lazy bastard and forgetting trades.

Oi don't tell them the secret, I've got people thinking I actually know what I'm doing around here.

 

[frugal.rock]

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm not an economist and don't know much about what kneebone affects what thigh bone when people talk about inflation but I do know a few things. I'm just talking about the effect of tariffs on the USA brought about by Trump tariffs.

• Price rises are different from inflation.
• Not every tariff is going to lead to a price rise.
• Price rises do not necessarily lead to inflation.
• If a tariff is applied it varies whether the cost is borne by the importer or the exporter.
• If it is the latter it is not a problem for the USA.
• It also varies whether the importer decides to just apply the tariff cost to that which is imported or spread it over all in that class of imports, even those to which no tariff applies.
• Price rises may lead to increased wages and less profit on imported goods or it may not. It depends.
• Inflation does not occur immediately after tariffs are applied and later on as price rises.
• Team Trump is now talking about applying tariff increases gradually.
• The USA is a closed economy. Most of its activity is USA generated. The guy who makes an EV car, sells it to a dealer who sells it to someone else who works for a mob making EV engines which are bought by the guy who makes cars, same with bananas or buildings.
• Less than 20% of economic activity is with other countries, lower than every other country in the world, so after tariffs start it is not going to affect 80% of the economy.
• I could go on but the NYSE opens in 2 hours and I have some charts to look at.
• Finally I don't believe tariffs will hurt the US consumer nor cause US inflation but it may affect other countries, probably will.

gg

 

[frugal.rock]

I am wondering what a "huge portfolio" is these days.

I broke it down backwards as such,

Folio is like a folder ok,
If the folder is port it's on the left side, right?
Huge must mean it's a A3 sized folder... unless it's A2 or could it be so huge it's A1?
Not sure I've ever seen a folder for those sizes.

 

[qldfrog]

I'm not an economist and don't know much about what kneebone affects what thigh bone when people talk about inflation but I do know a few things. I'm just talking about the effect of tariffs on the USA brought about by Trump tariffs.

• Price rises are different from inflation.
• Not every tariff is going to lead to a price rise.
• Price rises do not necessarily lead to inflation.
• If a tariff is applied it varies whether the cost is borne by the importer or the exporter.
• If it is the latter it is not a problem for the USA.
• It also varies whether the importer decides to just apply the tariff cost to that which is imported or spread it over all in that class of imports, even those to which no tariff applies.
• Price rises may lead to increased wages and less profit on imported goods or it may not. It depends.
• Inflation does not occur immediately after tariffs are applied and later on as price rises.
• Team Trump is now talking about applying tariff increases gradually.
• The USA is a closed economy. Most of its activity is USA generated. The guy who makes an EV car, sells it to a dealer who sells it to someone else who works for a mob making EV engines which are bought by the guy who makes cars, same with bananas or buildings.
• Less than 20% of economic activity is with other countries, lower than every other country in the world, so after tariffs start it is not going to affect 80% of the economy.
• I could go on but the NYSE opens in 2 hours and I have some charts to look at.
• Finally I don't believe tariffs will hurt the US consumer nor cause US inflation but it may affect other countries, probably will.

gg

The California fires will probably do more to boost US inflation than the tariffs will, at least initially.
A lot of if demands in building materials cars, tv, sofa, etc plus trades.close the borders and the builders will get very busy.
Inflation in the US is good, reduce the real debt and avoid default
so Trump will be a winner on that one.not that it will be acknowledged as such, just that the economic alternatives are worse

 

[qldfrog]

From the above:
Now what will inflation be here?
More cheap China products for us, less mineral export,AUD falling and oil more expensive?
A recession in Australia?
Honestly not sure