Don't think buying today would be madness. This morning would have been good. Some folk have been waiting for a major pullback since 3800 and I just don't think it's gonna happen in the short term. Recently had 6% retreat and we'll see if this deteriorates into something worse, but doubt it. Now if China starts choking, I'm outa here!
Imminent and severe market correction
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
- Start date
Don't think buying today would be madness. This morning would have been good. Some folk have been waiting for a major pullback since 3800 and I just don't think it's gonna happen in the short term. Recently had 6% retreat and we'll see if this deteriorates into something worse, but doubt it. Now if China starts choking, I'm outa here!
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Seems to be the same pattern recurring in the market...push higher, consolidate, down day, wash out the dead wood, then trudge higher again. I removed my stops this morning as I have been caught in the white wash to often with this market behaviour. Stops will be replaced for Monday. Risky stratergy I know, but seemed that today was always going to be an over reaction on the open.
I agree. That does seem to be the pattern of late. However how we go on Monday tho would depend on what the Dow finishes on overnight. Yes?
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Our Big Bwanks are either denying any exposure or refusing to speak.
Hmmm.
Wasn't that their EXACT SAME response at the start of the "1st" World Financial Crisis that happened ages ago - way back in 2008?
Sure, sure... I believe.......
Hmmm.
Wasn't that their EXACT SAME response at the start of the "1st" World Financial Crisis that happened ages ago - way back in 2008?
Sure, sure... I believe.......
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Well... I'm out. Gold stocks only. A correction was due and this is the catylyst.
If I'm wrong, I'm sure if I'm patient I won't get back in too far from where I left.
Strengthening USD? Whats that all about.
If I'm wrong, I'm sure if I'm patient I won't get back in too far from where I left.
Strengthening USD? Whats that all about.
skc
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According to Wikipedia, Dubai GDP was only $37B in 2005... a couple more good years in 06 and 07 probably push the figure up to say $50B? But over 20% was construction which is now busted, while only 6% is oil and gas.
Their national debt on the other hand is $100B... so 2-3 times the GDP. It is also important to think about GDP. It's really only the equivalent of "revenue" to a country. The "profit" is the tax receipts. And Dubai is well known for having the lowest tax rate in the world (something like 5% for individual income). So I hate to think really what's their "interest cover" ratio.
One would think that the UAE will just announce some sort of bail out over the weekend and calm things over.. but I don't know of any precedence of the UAE federation bailing out the member states.
That surely is not the most prudent risk strategy? The Aussie market hasn't been able to move up even with the DOW making new highs, it will be very surprising if we bolt up Monday. Esp considering that US is half day tonight and unlikely to provide clear leads.
My punt is that the attention will be turned next to those Eastern EU countries who are about to go bust.
Their national debt on the other hand is $100B... so 2-3 times the GDP. It is also important to think about GDP. It's really only the equivalent of "revenue" to a country. The "profit" is the tax receipts. And Dubai is well known for having the lowest tax rate in the world (something like 5% for individual income). So I hate to think really what's their "interest cover" ratio.
One would think that the UAE will just announce some sort of bail out over the weekend and calm things over.. but I don't know of any precedence of the UAE federation bailing out the member states.
That surely is not the most prudent risk strategy? The Aussie market hasn't been able to move up even with the DOW making new highs, it will be very surprising if we bolt up Monday. Esp considering that US is half day tonight and unlikely to provide clear leads.
My punt is that the attention will be turned next to those Eastern EU countries who are about to go bust.
» BREAKING NEWS » News
Stocks plunge on Dubai debt news Australian shares have plunged in the wake of the government of Dubai asking for a six-month debt moratorium for its investment vehicle, Dubai World.
Austock Securities senior client adviser Michael Heffernan said the market wasn't too upset and he was confident that Dubai would not default.
"If it was anybody I owed money to I would love it to be the Dubai royal family," he said.
"They have oil dripping out of them and have plenty of dough pouring into them.
"This doesn't affect whether shoppers going to Woolworths or Safeway - and they're both down and all the banks are down - and I don't think they have any extensive lending to the Dubai royal family."
Mr Heffernan said the drop in the market meant it would be a buying day, with retail and banking stocks selling at good value.
He said Leighton Holdings and WorleyParsons were two companies with exposure to Dubai.
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I think everyone needs to pick up the balls and start buying .. The Royal Family have substanial worth and income and I think can cover this money in a worst case scenario .. If you have an opportunity to resturcture and ask for a 6 month grace period why wouldnt you take it .. I dont think the hole debt falls due right now anyway.. They just need to give a personal guarantee on the debt and all will be fine. .
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Not prudent on face value, however the end result should be the same unless if we gap down on Monday. I knew the intial wave of selling would knock my stops out, and when the market has news like this before the open, 9/10 the lowest point of the day with be the open. Stops will be replaced tonight under the lows of the day. It still comes within managing my risk given that I have kept an extra allocation of risk up my sleave on each purchase lately, so they I can try and move my stop away from these short down moves which are just taking me out of far too many profitable trades. I will see how it goes, this is the first time I have attempted not buying my full allocation of shares (i.e normally 1%, I have now done .7% and have left .3% to allow the stop extra room if need be). I will quickly learn whether this is suited current market conditions or not
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Not prudent on face value, however the end result should be the same unless if we gap down on Monday. I knew the intial wave of selling would knock my stops out, and when the market has news like this before the open, 9/10 the lowest point of the day with be the open. Stops will be replaced tonight under the lows of the day. It still comes within managing my risk given that I have kept an extra allocation of risk up my sleave on each purchase lately, so they I can try and move my stop away from these short down moves which are just taking me out of far too many profitable trades. I will see how it goes, this is the first time I have attempted not buying my full allocation of shares (i.e normally 1%, I have now done .7% and have left .3% to allow the stop extra room if need be). I will quickly learn whether this is suited current market conditions or not
Hi sammy, we fell 40 odd points after the open today but bounced straight back up; If you're not looking to trade intraday then I guess thats fine, but IMO you should haev let yourself get stopped out, reasses; and then possibly re-enter.
Cheers
Nyden
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Could it be a bad sign, that in the thread titled "Imminent and sever market correction", the majority of the last few posts are in fact bullish - calling for a big swing up on Monday?
This whole week, heck, even the previous week has had me a little worried. Every day we seem seem to be led downwards by selling pressure. And, as mentioned already, the US kept making new highs this week, yet we kept floundering in a sideways-down motion.
We could very well head right back up, though. It just seems odd, that we're heading back down so quickly after our previous dip. Doesn't seem to be the same pattern as before.
I tend to get a little uneasy when the doomsayers are no where to be found, is all. Perhaps they're all long.
This whole week, heck, even the previous week has had me a little worried. Every day we seem seem to be led downwards by selling pressure. And, as mentioned already, the US kept making new highs this week, yet we kept floundering in a sideways-down motion.
We could very well head right back up, though.
It just seems odd, that we're heading back down so quickly after our previous dip. Doesn't seem to be the same pattern as before.I tend to get a little uneasy when the doomsayers are no where to be found, is all. Perhaps they're all long.
Jancha, Dubai oil is running out fast, a lot of the money that was pouring in to them was BLACK money from Russian and china. I just hope our banks are not in bed with them.
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Agreed, was just trying to find innovate ways to stop my current draw down. Also re-entry is a lot harder mentally than defending positions on a down day.
Back on topic, not worried by Dubai. Dubai was always a bubble, I would hope most market participants were smart enough to price that in. Nevertheless, Abu Dahbi has over $150b cash in reserves. Considering they only have a GDP of $37m, the ramifications for us should not be too large. I'm just glad I don't own leightons
I think the doomsdayers are there reminding us that what caused the GFC hasn't been solved. The thing is with Bernake determinded to hold rates at 0% and govts spending like crazy there obviously a lot of money around and so up in the short-term seems logical. I too have been getting the downward vibe lately however I think its irrelevant to look at our market in isolation. If the S&P picks up so will we.
explod
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Agreed, was just trying to find innovate ways to stop my current draw down. Also re-entry is a lot harder mentally than defending positions on a down day.
Back on topic, not worried by Dubai. Dubai was always a bubble, I would hope most market participants were smart enough to price that in. Nevertheless, Abu Dahbi has over $150b cash in reserves. Considering they only have a GDP of $37m, the ramifications for us should not be too large. I'm just glad I don't own leightons
Crowd sentiment/behaviour is very powerfull and infectious, add fear and you have a bad mix. The Dubai issue will make many more question the fundamentals of many other financial weeklings, it was already in the last week or so looking a bit dodgy again in the US, this could tip things a great deal now. When minds drift bact to the October 08 crash it may not be pretty at all.
Just my humble overview.
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I just took a peek at the Hang Seng index...
DOWN -666 points
Omen??
Errr.. make that -765 after another 2 mins....
I just took a peek at the Hang Seng index...
DOWN -666 points
Omen??
Errr.. make that -765 after another 2 mins....
That has to be a definate omen Aussiejeff. When did you wakeup from out of the cave?
Nyden
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Please another 20% drop then follow by margin call and another panic
I been saving cash since August
4 stocks I like to have but people need to start throw them out of the windows because of margin call.
There you are! Looks like we're headed up on Monday after all
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