Timmy
white swans need love too
- Joined
- 30 September 2007
- Posts
- 3,457
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- 3
There's the 'imminent' conundrum again, a one-year horizon probably doesn't qualify as imminent for traders?
There could always be a wager on the future - global equity markets will be lower than they are now, this time next year?
There could always be a wager on the future - global equity markets will be lower than they are now, this time next year?
That's a bet from which someone can only lose.If i am right, you no longer post here under any user name.
If i am wrong i will no longer post here under any user name.
That's a bet from which someone can only lose.
On the charts, value support kicks in around 4,000 the floor of support at 2,000 but do not be surprised if it overshoots to 1,000
I try to post some sort of objective analysis of data, after stripping out all of the headline grabbing crap which the permabull ra ra cheer sqaud base their justification for only going long?
For ie, Chinese GDP. If ever there was a set of basically total garbage purporting to be an indicator of growth! They measure how much is produced instead of how much is consumed (sold). So if they throw $500B at the productive sector in stimulis then it will show a growth in GDP - simple. But has it resulted in someone somewhere consuming the product? It certainly has not been exported to the US or Japan or Europe ie global trade figures? Probably still sitting some factory in some province somewhere?
US GDP - ditto - as long as they keep the gov handouts going then we will get figures like this, but it is ultimately unsustainable as long as the budget is paying out more than it is receiving (see previous chart on Jaws of Death)
The UK is still a basket case - no rebound there yet - ie the market has priced in some ways ahead of itself.
US unemployment and continuing claims does not indicate a recovery - still! Goldman Sachs has done an excellent job in raising global stock markets - the ultimate in leverage.
Global markets in commercial real estate have yet to even get close to bottoming out, in fact the worst is yet to come for them, and will ultimately ensure a severe global depression and capitulation of the current capitalist system as we know it?
Australia's reliance on China means we are at the mercy of a corrupt junta controlling some sort of hybrid experiment of pseudo communism and moral hazard capitalism of the worst type. We really do have all our eggs in the Chinese basket, because we have stuff all left to sell to the rest of the world other than what comes out of big hole in the ground?
Trade what you see but plan for reality?
I wont get into a semantic argument explod, but will just say that I wont use your definition of imminent but rather will stick with what the rest of the English speaking world accept as its reasonable definition.
Here is a Google link to "define: imminent"
http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=define:+imminent&btnG=Google+Search&meta=&aq=f&oq=
Having your own personal definition may help to avoid having to admit that the calls made here are vague and imprecise. Nothing wrong with that, but just helpful to recognise them for what they are, background market commentary.
so many posts go back on this thread about imminent and severe etc and the same people come out and bang away again, without ever saying oh shucks got that wrong last time.
Now good bear talk is fun, but please don't expect me to take you guys seriously until you get it right at least once.
I will take that bet. Which market will be the indicator, S&P500?
If i am right, you no longer post here under any user name.
If i am wrong i will no longer post here under any user name.
Deal?
Nothing wrong with that, but just helpful to recognise them for what they are, background market commentary.
I say that the stock markets and financial systems will collapse period for all the reasons I have stated for the last three years and have known for many more years back from that, "it is imminent and it will be servere" IMVHO and I respect yours without going crook or taking up bets. Democracy is a wonderful thing
the Wall Street equivalent of circle jerking
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/Circle%20Jerk.png
except for Calyon.... whats wrong there guys? bitter? unloved?
Uncle F, perhap you just like being a bear, a glass half empty guy as your assessments above can be challenged on so many levels, e.g. myriad of Chinese data will show how much is being consumed (cars, telephones, TVs, housing). Perhaps you see infrastructure as production until people start using the subways etc. The business I'm involved in is booming in China, health care. Having travelled to China last year to visit my brother who lives there, I find your comments on pseudo communism, moral hazard capitalism and corrupt junta as naive and condescending.
The "jaws of death" charts I've seen remind me of Nostradamus, fanciful but useless in predicting the immediate future. Pity you didn't get time to respond to my other post requesting a redraw of your chart using a different year base on the DOW and XAO comparatives. Nor did you advise what you thought the divergence represented in any case. Hint: could it be that Australia has simply outperformed US economy or resources have been more important than American motor vehicles, etc. Not sure what you were thinking - just two lines with a dubious base that showed XAO had outperfomed DOW, so what?
Not just your good self Uncle F, but so many posts go back on this thread about imminent and severe etc and the same people come out and bang away again, without ever saying oh shucks got that wrong last time. I wouldn't mind but find much of the purported logic and reasoning fairly shallow, often conspiracy laced about official data and ulterior motives.
Now good bear talk is fun, but please don't expect me to take you guys seriously until you get it right at least once.
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