Imminent and severe market correction

[MR.]

USA = $8600- per person
Australia = $19400- per person
Europe = $3500- per person
UK = $5600- per person
Japan = $12,000- per person

Is there an extra zero for Oz, seems a bit high?

Have a look at this site -

http://buttonwood.economist.com/content/gdc

Yes, I'd like to know how we went from being a country with one of the lower public debts, to one with one of the highest :. While we like to whinge about our debt, we're still far better off in that respect than most other countries.

Doesn’t “look” right Australia vs other countries, agree.... Think the figures were from the ABC News before I divided by populations. Australia’s $19,400 per person is Public debt plus Private debt. Not “National” (Public) debt as I claimed.

However, thanks for the link UF. It appears that Japan’s figures quoted above also have private cash savings already calculated. I can’t go adding private cash savings in Japan again to Public debt. Lucky you all didn’t make me treasurer!

Japan just took a turn for the worst (for me)...... But is Japan’s “Public Debt as a % of GDP” as bad as it really looks? The Japanese people do have 8 trillion equivalent of USD’s socked away for a rainy day!
Perhaps explains why the figure for Australia looks so bad.

 

[cutz]

Thanks for the links Uncle Festivus,

Good stuff.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, expects a “tough” holiday shopping season with consumers delaying purchases, said John Fleming, chief merchandising officer.
Walmart plans to reduce prices as the season advances in areas including home, food and gifts, Fleming told analysts today at a conference in Rogers, Arkansas.
Consumers’ wallets “are challenged,” Fleming said. The holiday season “is going to be tough, it is going to be late.”

Translations -

"tough" - no one is buying anything at all
"delaying purchases" - we hope they will buy, something, anything, eventually.....pleeeease
Consumers’ wallets “are challenged" - empty!
it is going to be late - um, try 2015

Classic quotes -

Walmart, based in Bentonville, Arkansas, fell $1.07, or 2.1 percent, to $50.63 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock has declined 9.7 percent this year.
Cleaner, less-cluttered stores and faster checkout will help keep new customers as the economy improves, said Eduardo Castro-Wright, vice chairman and U.S. stores chief.

Well that's right Eduardo, if there's no-one buying anything then why stock the stuff! Hand that man some in-the-money stock options for that observation , so he can promptly sell them, like everyone else is doing these days.

The WSJ insider table is again severely lopsided with insider selling.

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co. dropped 5.1 percent in New York trading after Rochdale Securities LLC analyst Dick Bove cut the stock to “sell,” saying third-quarter profit was “unsustainable” and included a swing in mortgage servicing fees that is “impossible to explain.”

All was going so nicely today on Wall St, that was until somebody shouted "the Emperor has no clothes on". Finaly someone has said out loud what everyone has been saying in private - the figures just don't add up? Or at the least, are not sustainable. Now when they figure out the better-than-expected profits form the other money shufflers bears little resemblance to support a recovery in the real economy then last one out turn the lights off......

Servicing fees on mortgages rose $1.1 billion, or 15 cents a share, and a lower tax rate gave a 2-cent boost, Bove said in a note to clients. Hedges tied to mortgage servicing rights produced a $3.6 billion gain, compared with a $1.3 billion loss in the second quarter, he wrote. The impact on earnings per share was 68 cents, he said.
“This is more money than the bank earned, overall, including the hedge profit, in the third quarter,” he wrote. “The remaining businesses of the bank were very mixed in the quarter. Most disturbing is that loan losses seem to be accelerating on the negative ide.”

 

[gfresh]

US consumer going to get squashed before they recover, due to the rapidly bleeding dollar.. price of consumer imports UP, fuel price UP.. something they are not really used to. May take a while to kick in, but kick in it shall to squash that consumer even further.

dive dive..

 

[Donga]

Thought I'd beat the bears in resuming this thread. Surprised the usual suspects hadn't already come out of their caves to display their latest charts and gloomy articles.

So the correction is underway, how far do we think XAO will fall?

I'll venture 4600 before recovering back to 4800s during November and still optimistic of 5000 by Christmas.

 

[drsmith]

Thought I'd beat the bears in resuming this thread. Surprised the usual suspects hadn't already come out of their caves to display their latest charts and gloomy articles.

That could be the best bear indicator of all.

 

[Mr J]

4600 wasn't a healthy break for the SPI.

I'll venture 4600 before recovering back to 4800s during November and still optimistic of 5000 by Christmas.

The markets can't keep rising forever.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Unemployment claims lessening and real GDP figures looking good so don't get too carried away with the downside.

 

[Timmy]

The markets can't keep rising forever.

LOL! Did you forget to add a smiley to this, or is it meant to be insightful?

 

[Nyden]

Thought I'd beat the bears in resuming this thread. Surprised the usual suspects hadn't already come out of their caves to display their latest charts and gloomy articles.

So the correction is underway, how far do we think XAO will fall?

I'll venture 4600 before recovering back to 4800s during November and still optimistic of 5000 by Christmas.

Am I crazy, or was the market already lower than 4600 when you posted this?

 

[WinnieBlues]

i hope this bloke isn't right....super depression dead ahead as soon as USD collapses

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkYYuNIIv2M&feature=related

 

[nomore4s]

The markets can't keep rising forever.

Surely that depends on time frame and perspective?

:

 

[WinnieBlues]

mortgage rests coming next year....

and uncle ben has run out of bullets.....look out below

http://www.bearishnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/mortgage-reset-chart.jpg

his judgement cometh, and that time soon!!!!

 

[WinnieBlues]

I hope that the world doesn't turn out like this......if it is, we are majorly screwed...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4122Cx-HHmo&feature=related

this bloke has got it right...check out the trends research institute on google...they are amazingly accurate....

time to batten down the hatches

 

[nunthewiser]

loves this thread on red days ......... um Guys can hardly call it a correction /crash as yet ....... currently sitting on a major pivot point .

Will it go quiet here if it bounces off it ?

As stated previously here i am a major bear expecting a retest if not a break of the past lows but geez everytime the market drops its guts a cupla points all the doomsyaers come flying through the door.

The sky is still there , no need for sqwarking yet.

 

[nunthewiser]

Trailing stops anyone ?

Or is it better to dump everything because you get a scare? .......

I know where i am.

Do you ?

 

[WinnieBlues]

loves this thread on red days ......... um Guys can hardly call it a correction /crash as yet ....... currently sitting on a major pivot point .

Will it go quiet here if it bounces off it ?

As stated previously here i am a major bear expecting a retest if not a break of the past lows but geez everytime the market drops its guts a cupla points all the doomsyaers come flying through the door.

The sky is still there , no need for sqwarking yet.

nun.....the only reason the markets up is through fabricated govt spending, stimulus and QE

we are majorly screwed.....your world and my world will change forever...

am sitting 100% cash at the moment

this won't be pretty....most of the smart movers on wall street have already made it to the exits

ordinary people are going to get crushed, as usual

 

[explod]

Trailing stops anyone ?

Or is it better to dump everything because you get a scare? .......

I know where i am.

Do you ?

Stick to the stops, and the chart language, saw the doji on sss last night and got out at .028, a great trade, could not care less about the tipping, when you pick up 150% on a big play you just think if Christmas.

 

[WinnieBlues]

Looking into 2012........from celente....google him....he has been amazingly correct in the last 20 years....and predicted the course of events over the last 2 years...this is part of his latest report.....

Episode V Autumn 2012, the “Greatest Depression” has spread worldwide. Billions are unemployed, homeless and desperate. Countries bankrupt, trade pacts broken, tariffs rise, borders close.
Protectionist, nationalist and anti-globalization movements have moved out of the margins and into the mainstream. Immigrants brought in during boom times ”” blamed for bringing down wages, stealing jobs and rising crime ”” are being rounded up and deported.
Despite differences between the 1930’s Great Depression and today’s “Greatest Depression,” unsettling similarities conjure up memories of pre-World War II. From the United Kingdom to Russia, war drums eerily beat.
China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore ”” all countries that ramped up production to meet insatiable business and consumer demands of the prior decade ”” fight for survival.
Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, long industrialized and export driven, blame China for their mounting trade imbalances, internal strife and Southeast Asian instability.
Mexico, once the US resort/retirement retreat, is as dangerous as the Congo, and its government ”” what’s left of it ”” is equally ruthless.
Across much of South America, depression, coups and wars prevail; few nations have been spared.
In Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan it’s the same news, different year, different body count: “Five US

The 2nd American Revolution troops killed in Afghanistan.” “US drone attack kills 60 civilians in Pakistan.” “Car bomb blast kills 47 in Iraq.”
In the eleven years since President George W. Bush promised to bring Osama bin Laden back “dead or alive,” there have been more Elvis sightings than traces of bin Laden.
The US military asks for more troops, more money and more time. The President and Congress plunder the treasury and sacrifice more lives all under the pretext of keeping America Al Qaeda-free.
The Israeli-Palestinian peace process remains permanently and violently stalemated.
Iran, having forged a business/military alliance with China and Russia, is now a Nuclear Club member, and the world is forced to deal with it.
Oil-rich nations, having sunk trillions and lost trillions in high stakes investments, are trying to cope with internal rebellion and decreased demand for their only cash crop.
India’s miracle economy has run out of miracle, pushing it back into Third World conditions. Incessant flare-ups with Pakistan carry nuclear implications.
Canada, Australia and New Zealand are not in great shape, but compared to most other nations, they seem like paradise.
Africa is Africa. Not much has changed. Corruption, poverty and conflict prevail. Despots and dictators vie for control.

I am glad i am in 100% cash now....this is serious, and will affect all of us......this is more than the market.......this is nation changing stuff...massive deflation ahead in almost every asset class, bar gold and safe currencies...

 

[nunthewiser]

nun.....the only reason the markets up is through fabricated govt spending, stimulus and QE

we are majorly screwed.....your world and my world will change forever...

am sitting 100% cash at the moment

this won't be pretty....most of the smart movers on wall street have already made it to the exits

ordinary people are going to get crushed, as usual

Um i know why the markets are up and yes agree it is a fabricated fairyland .

Whats that got to do with trading ?

Can you show me figures for this alleged exodus on wall street or is that merely an opinion or an opinion off some doom and gloom media article?

Ordinary People always get crushed , thats not my problem nor is it my concern as a trader ... Goes with the turf....... If the game isnt morally suitable for you i suggest you pick another form of wealth creation .

No offense intended