wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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House prices to stagnate for 'years'
- Thread starter krisbarry
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theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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Julia
In Memoriam
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Initially I was surprised when I read some of the preceding comments about boomers being in debt, but I guess that's true when I look at those who are still working. I don't know anyone in my own circle who has any debt other than investment property, and that's minimal.
Talking with my accountant recently she remarked on the number of clients she has who intend to "just blow" most of their super when they can access it!!! New car, overseas travel for extended period etc. In response to her suggestion that it would be smart to plan for income for the retirement years, she says many of them just shrug their shoulders and say they'll always have the Centrelink pension if necessary. Well, whoopdedo, that's just great until they actually try to live on said Centrelink pension. I just don't get this attitude.
Talking with my accountant recently she remarked on the number of clients she has who intend to "just blow" most of their super when they can access it!!! New car, overseas travel for extended period etc. In response to her suggestion that it would be smart to plan for income for the retirement years, she says many of them just shrug their shoulders and say they'll always have the Centrelink pension if necessary. Well, whoopdedo, that's just great until they actually try to live on said Centrelink pension. I just don't get this attitude.
chops_a_must
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Not to mention getting rid of all those assets they've splurged on. And if they get it wrong.... no money until they can have another means test 5 years on...
great speculation, predictions, you read to much garbage
why cant you discuss solely the property situation, not negative equity will do this, economy will do this, now the sub-prime loans is causing this
18mths on for this thread and it still hasnt occurred
thankyou
robots
asxg, this post opened up a whole Pandora's Box so to speak...
The one thing I came to conclusion after reading this is the messed up way in which State and federal governments are elected totally screwed any chance of any effort to combat high house prices being effective.
Interest rates come from 'independent' RBA, or so they claim atm, so they'll do whatever they can by themselves.
Income tax cuts? We can definitely do with more of these, but it'll not be effective IMO as long as fat-cat Labors made so from stamp duties continue these same old same old. Same goes for legislation change - it'll help, but not by much since one party can't control what the other's doing. Only when both State and Feds get united on this issue will there be real change, which IMO is close to hopeless.
Solution? Change the way State and Fed govts are elected, and their respective taxation and legislative powers.
All of which, of course, is easier said than done; we need champions and influential people in politics to do this. Dare we hope? Hmmmmmmm.....
NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH...
The one thing I came to conclusion after reading this is the messed up way in which State and federal governments are elected totally screwed any chance of any effort to combat high house prices being effective.
Interest rates come from 'independent' RBA, or so they claim atm, so they'll do whatever they can by themselves.
Income tax cuts? We can definitely do with more of these, but it'll not be effective IMO as long as fat-cat Labors made so from stamp duties continue these same old same old. Same goes for legislation change - it'll help, but not by much since one party can't control what the other's doing. Only when both State and Feds get united on this issue will there be real change, which IMO is close to hopeless.
Solution? Change the way State and Fed govts are elected, and their respective taxation and legislative powers.
All of which, of course, is easier said than done; we need champions and influential people in politics to do this. Dare we hope? Hmmmmmmm.....
NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH...
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Ummm, they're all interelated
Australia is in a similar position as the US.
Just about everyone has gone crazy buying over-priced assets with easy money.
Even in an environment of low unemployment and no real jolt to the American economy, it still went South when reality caught up with fantasy.
Now as far as Australia is concerned, we would be in pretty bad shape economically if it hadn't been for the commodities boom. When this ends/slows down some people are going to be in for a nasty shock.
And on a side issue ROBOTS. I have never seen you post anything to support your point of view or perspective.
Maybe you need a processor upgrade or something to help you see the bigger picture...
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Re: House prices to BOOM for 'years'
no its not
such as resource stocks? XJO over 6000. nah thats not the bubble. the bubble is in property right?
we ARE IN BAD SHAPE. even with a resource boom we are still doing more importing than exporting, resulting in a trade deficit black hole. strong AUD now making it worse, and then what if rates rise? but this has NOTHING to do with the property cycle. and neither does 99% of the other rubbish logic posted here.
at least he uses logic based on FACTS and makes sense. the rest of you are just scaremongering nancy-boys who dont understand the economic clock. when BHP & RIO earnings started going through the roof in 2004 did you sell them? same situation with property now. rents are skyrocketing. its time to BUY property.
at the end of the day you have all been WRONG. property prices have been RISING since you all started saying the sky is falling.
no its not
such as resource stocks? XJO over 6000. nah thats not the bubble. the bubble is in property right?
we ARE IN BAD SHAPE. even with a resource boom we are still doing more importing than exporting, resulting in a trade deficit black hole. strong AUD now making it worse, and then what if rates rise? but this has NOTHING to do with the property cycle. and neither does 99% of the other rubbish logic posted here.
at least he uses logic based on FACTS and makes sense. the rest of you are just scaremongering nancy-boys who dont understand the economic clock. when BHP & RIO earnings started going through the roof in 2004 did you sell them? same situation with property now. rents are skyrocketing. its time to BUY property.
at the end of the day you have all been WRONG. property prices have been RISING since you all started saying the sky is falling.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: House prices to BOOM for 'years'
Argumentum Ad Hominem /\. Unnecessary and puerile.
As a point of order, you have managed to string together a whole bunch of counterpoints and assertions regarding property without a jot of sound economic reasoning. The correlation between rent and house prices is poor and non-transparent. More on this later...
Argumentum Ad Hominem /\. Unnecessary and puerile.
As a point of order, you have managed to string together a whole bunch of counterpoints and assertions regarding property without a jot of sound economic reasoning. The correlation between rent and house prices is poor and non-transparent. More on this later...
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Re: House prices to BOOM for 'years'
My BHP shares trade at 9 times cashflow and are liquid
My apartment 'trades' at 30 times cashflow and is illiquid
Which one is better value?
My BHP shares trade at 9 times cashflow and are liquid
My apartment 'trades' at 30 times cashflow and is illiquid
Which one is better value?
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Re: House prices to BOOM for 'years'
I have never seen Robots use any facts, all we get are about 5 "don't worry, be happy", "nothing to see here, move along" sentences.
And if Reality = Scaremongering, then I think we are really onto something.
Isn't this called irrational exuberance?
Ummm, like about six months ago when people were offering more than the asking price for houses in Perth.
Interestingly, the Sydney market effectively topped out around the same time as the US Market topped and has been pretty much stagnating since then(about the time this thread started). Now if it wasn't for some money still sloshing into NSW's from the commodities boom, how do you think the NSW market would be looking today after a rather severe drought last year.
How would the Australian economy be looking if it wasn't for the commodity's boom?
Go take some more of your irrational exuberance pills. Me I'm getting cashed up during the boom and I'll be picking up the bargains when they come my way.
I have never seen Robots use any facts, all we get are about 5 "don't worry, be happy", "nothing to see here, move along" sentences.
And if Reality = Scaremongering, then I think we are really onto something.
Isn't this called irrational exuberance?
Ummm, like about six months ago when people were offering more than the asking price for houses in Perth.
Interestingly, the Sydney market effectively topped out around the same time as the US Market topped and has been pretty much stagnating since then(about the time this thread started). Now if it wasn't for some money still sloshing into NSW's from the commodities boom, how do you think the NSW market would be looking today after a rather severe drought last year.
How would the Australian economy be looking if it wasn't for the commodity's boom?
Go take some more of your irrational exuberance pills. Me I'm getting cashed up during the boom and I'll be picking up the bargains when they come my way.
hello,
an example:
13 park St, Abbotsford (within 15km of Melb) extended 3-bed victorian cottage
Feb 1993 Sold 122k
Sep 1997 Sold 155k
Nov 1998 Sold 240k
Dec 2003 Sold 405k
Feb 2007 Sold 480k
on research that seems around the correct price for a property of that type
using a savings calculator thats a return of about 9% over the 14 yrs
that is supposedly the long term average I understand, property and shares are both asset classes
wow what a period of price stagnation on that one wayne, talking property nothing else here not return on investment etc, what a crash there, running at the long term average I understand
can't afford? i think so, so therefore everything has to crash
dont listen to the crap from the media
thankyou
robots
an example:
13 park St, Abbotsford (within 15km of Melb) extended 3-bed victorian cottage
Feb 1993 Sold 122k
Sep 1997 Sold 155k
Nov 1998 Sold 240k
Dec 2003 Sold 405k
Feb 2007 Sold 480k
on research that seems around the correct price for a property of that type
using a savings calculator thats a return of about 9% over the 14 yrs
that is supposedly the long term average I understand, property and shares are both asset classes
wow what a period of price stagnation on that one wayne, talking property nothing else here not return on investment etc, what a crash there, running at the long term average I understand
can't afford? i think so, so therefore everything has to crash
dont listen to the crap from the media
thankyou
robots
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Feb 2012 Sold ?
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Feb 2012.....probably a perfect time to buy it again
, if you were a first home buyer or property investor.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Agree 100%Feb 2012.....probably a perfect time to buy it again
Watch this bear turn it a raging, foaming at the mouth bull at the right time.
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x2
I'll be buying like there is no tomorrow when no-one would touch property with a barge pole..
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mummy, Im scared!
Its curious that some of you think 2012 will be a good time to buy property.
To state the obvious, baby boomers will retire in 2010. Until then, they will be adding funds to their retirement accounts, ie managed funds, ie shares. Come 2010, they will stop adding funds to that market. Furthermore, they will begin drawing on these funds, ie selling. It is quite likely that many retirees will sell large chunks of shares / managed fund units, because they require frequent and consistent income streams. What provides this? PROPERTY.
Furthermore, retirees cannot live in a managed fund. They will require a residence. Demand for primary residences will increase. Demand for investment properties will skyrocket. This pattern is unlikely to change until the retirees start to die off, maybe 10-20 yrs later.
So the only market that is doomed, is EQUITIES (unless investing in healthcare)
Its curious that some of you think 2012 will be a good time to buy property.
To state the obvious, baby boomers will retire in 2010. Until then, they will be adding funds to their retirement accounts, ie managed funds, ie shares. Come 2010, they will stop adding funds to that market. Furthermore, they will begin drawing on these funds, ie selling. It is quite likely that many retirees will sell large chunks of shares / managed fund units, because they require frequent and consistent income streams. What provides this? PROPERTY.
Furthermore, retirees cannot live in a managed fund. They will require a residence. Demand for primary residences will increase. Demand for investment properties will skyrocket. This pattern is unlikely to change until the retirees start to die off, maybe 10-20 yrs later.
So the only market that is doomed, is EQUITIES (unless investing in healthcare)
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