House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[numbercruncher]

Is the answer that they are both overpriced?

They both go down

 

[wayneL]

 

[robots]

ramp :sleeping:

 

[wayneL]

ramp :sleeping:

Touche'

LOL

(....but isn't it a DE-ramp)

 

[Mofra]

Touche'

LOL

(....but isn't it a DE-ramp)

Not if you are actually long bond futures :

 

[numbercruncher]

Home prices fall for first time in 11 years
Case-Shiller price index shows prices dropping in 17 of 20 cities in January

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices continued to fall in January, with prices in 10 major cities now down 0.7% year-over-year, according to Standard & Poor's and MacroMarkets LLC, which released the January Case-Shiller price indexes on Tuesday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/home-prices-go-negative-first/story.aspx?guid=%7B30B54985%2D2189%2D4AE9%2DB8E5%2DECF89F6095F3%7D&dist=TNMostRead


The slide is just beginning perhaps?

 

[wayneL]

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/home-prices-go-negative-first/story.aspx?guid=%7B30B54985%2D2189%2D4AE9%2DB8E5%2DECF89F6095F3%7D&dist=TNMostRead


The slide is just beginning perhaps ?

Here is the Chart

:sleeping::sleeping::sleeping: (getting in first )

 

[theasxgorilla]

Not if you are actually long bond futures :

Don't they appreciate in value when the interest rates go down?

 

[wayneL]

Don't they appreciate in value when the interest rates go down?

Yeah, but we knew what he meant

 

[wayneL]

:sleeping: De-Ramp :sleeping:

The State of Sth Dublin RE Market (One that has had a huge boom as well) from a RE agent.

http://www.daft.ie/discussions.daft...293&dcn[root_discussion_id]=0&dcn[forum_id]=4

Hello

Im an estate agent (can hear the boos and hisses already).
I work in good south dublin areas - high prices, healthy demand (usually).
Been reading all the links about peoples opinions on where they think the market is and where they think its going etc.

Just to set the record straight from someone in the business 6 days a week.

1) in general, the south dublin market is down 15% - 20% on last year.
I am talking actual sale price, you can throw guides out the window.

2) in gereral, the south dublin market is down 15% - 20% if, that is, you can get a bid and hence a sale.

3) I have 21 properties for sale - more than ive ever had before.
3 have bids.
no competing bids.
bids are low, and much lower than what the owner wants / needs.
maybe 1 will sell.

4) since 1st January, I have sale agreed 12 properties.
10 have fallen through, 2 sold (at substantially lower prices).
Out of the 10 that fell through, only 1 has had another bid since.
As its lower than the first bid, that sale aint going anywhere.

5) i refuse to take on apartments because the owners have an over-inflated opinion of their price.
The market for apartments has bombed.
Irish people want to live in houses - apartments are temporary.
There is a colossal amount of new apartments on the market making it practically impossible to shift 2nd hand ones without a massive reduction in price.

hence the domino effect :
someone selling an apartment (and buying a house) will get much less than they initially calculated. Consequently, they can now only bid much less for the house. The house seller refuses the offer because it is too low (even though it may be the highest and best price out there). Therefore, both sale agreeds fall through and inventories build up.
Guide prices may stay the same throughout (not reflecting the real lower prices).
Although guide prices stay the same, it masks the reality that real prices are falling.

Incidentially, the sellers determine guide prices - not estate agents. We provide the guide, they provide the price !
We must follow their instructions no matter how bad we tell them it is.
Hence guide prices reflect what they are looking for, not the real market.

On occasions, some people are lucky enough to sell their apartment for a high price. These people can then go on to successfully buy a house at a high price.
Hence some houses are still going for reasonably high prices.
But, i cannot stress enough, this is generally a rare event.

6) I do not sell new developments but i know a lot of developers very well.
Most new developments are having a torrid time.
Developers will accept a much lower price than what they are quoting.
There is a serious overhang from the past 7 months and developers of these properties are trying to get out before the new crop hits the market.

7) Some developments are doing well.
These are housing developments (NOT APARTMENTS), in good locations and well priced.
Well priced can mean the same price as last year but with much better furnishings and contents, hence, same price - but much more for it.
Or, in effect, if the house had the same (lack of) contents as last year, it would achieve a lower price.

This is extremely important as it is providing 'evidence' that house prices are not falling and we are heading for a 'soft landing'.
This is WRONG.
Example:
Last year house price €1,000,000.
This year house price €1,000,000 (but with €100,000 extras).
Officially no change in house prices.
Reality, house prices down €100,000.

Dont be fooled, Developers know the markets gone.

8) Some of the best known estate agents are (quietly) closing down offices and letting people go.
The ones that havent already, are planning it.

9) Banks are looking for reasons / excuses not to give out money.
This has taken even me by surprise, as in all my years of experience (ok only 6), ive never come across this.
Out of the 10 sale agreeds that i mentioned earlier that fell through, 6 were because of banks saying 'NO'.

10) In hindsight, the high of the market was in April 2006.
Prices stayed high until august/september, with an unusually large amount of activity in between (no summer lull).
Buyers disappeared sometime around august/september and consequently so did the prices.
This happened before minister mcdowells comments on stamp duty and whilst it didnt start the process, it certainly hasnt helped entice the first time buyers back into the market.
There are buyers out there - but most are sitting on the sidelines.

And YES, that means if you were unlucky to buy anytime after March 2006, you are looking at a loss should you wish to sell.


Please note that the above 10 points are FACTS !
They are not projections or opinions or assumptions, but based upon real deals.
My experiences are not unusual and generally reflect those of my colleagues and estate agent friends across the entire south dublin area.
I am not saying the markets doomed as i cannot predict the future.
However, it has certainly dropped to the extent that many of my comrades in the business are starting to look at the posibility of changing jobs.

....but, but, but, houses only ever go up.

 

[money tree]

you guys still waffling on like the sky is falling?

newsflash!

we arent in the U.S, or Ireland. I doubt anyone here owns property in these places.

We are in AUSTRALIA

here the market is booming.

what you are doing is effectively stopping your car along the freeway everytime you see a car wreck, jumping out & taking photos cos its just so darn exciting! meanwhile, every other car on the road got to their destination days ago.

 

[numbercruncher]

here the market is booming.

Do you have evidence to support this claim?

 

[robots]

hello,

go for youself to an auction 10 - 15kms of a capital city, you will see multiple buyers, solid prices, well over reserves

the longer you wait the more you will regret in years to come

prices in Melbourne started moving around september 2006

cant afford?

thankyou

robots

 

[krisbarry]

Australia has the highest priced houses in the world...

Is the average joe buying these homes? NOT ANYMORE!!!

Then that begs the question who is going to buy these homes?

Why would foreigners invest in the highest priced property market in the world?

Its the top of the market boy and girls and everyone in between

 

[Kimosabi]

prices in Melbourne started moving around september 2006

:sleeping: De-Ramp :sleeping:

This is commonly referred to as a 'Dead Cat Bounce'

 

[theasxgorilla]

:sleeping: De-Ramp :sleeping:

This is commonly referred to as a 'Dead Cat Bounce'

OR a wave-B

 

[Kimosabi]

:sleeping: De-Ramp :sleeping:

Front Page, The West Australian, 27th March 2007

Interestingly, I was talking to one of my clients yesterday (who owns a Real Estate Agency) about the article below and one of his clients, who after reading the article below accepted an offer $40,000 below what they were hoping for.

 

[money tree]

Do you have evidence to support this claim?

Well I bought a house in 2005 for $220k, sold for $346k in 2006, then bought another house for $257k, just revalued @ $390k

Perth went up 37% also in the last year.

 

[numbercruncher]

But you said the market is booming now which it isnt, it boomed in the past, your an attestment to it booming in the past,its finito now pretty much.

 

[wayneL]

you guys still waffling on like the sky is falling?

newsflash!

we arent in the U.S, or Ireland. I doubt anyone here owns property in these places.

We are in AUSTRALIA

here the market is booming.

what you are doing is effectively stopping your car along the freeway everytime you see a car wreck, jumping out & taking photos cos its just so darn exciting! meanwhile, every other car on the road got to their destination days ago.

There is correlation however.

The liquidity bubble is a anglosphere wide phenomenon. Credit will tighten in unison.

Didn't you notice they all boomed in unison?

(NB there are local issues which will make this correlation not exact in time and magnitude however)