HCH - Hot Chili

[dyna]

The dogs bark .... The caravan moves on .

More gruff out today . Market ain't buying it , though . S.P. down 5 % now , to 72 cents .

Lots of stuff in the ground . What else ? 19 drill rigs !
A lot going on .....but only $ 19 mill cash left in the kitty .

 

[Sean K]

The dogs bark .... The caravan moves on .

More gruff out today . Market ain't buying it , though . S.P. down 5 % now , to 72 cents .

Lots of stuff in the ground . What else ? 19 drill rigs !
A lot going on .....but only $ 19 mill cash left in the kitty .

There's going to be a lot of CRs to go before this gets close to a BFS. They've been mining the market for a long time.

I'm surprised they didn't go for one after they brought out the LaVerde results that warrant a significant DD drill program to see if it goes to depth and to identify potential tonnage and hopefully find a high grade core close to surface for a starter pit - the one thing they're really missing.

I actually doubt this gets started unless they establish 200Mt @ 1% close to surface somewhere.

 

[Sean K]

Might have been a DB down there but I think I've said that before, like Aug/Sep 24. Hitting some resistance too.

The PFS is supposed to be out this quarter but I doubt they'll get it out on the already delayed timetable. They've been terrible at meeting guidance to market for years.

Even when they get the PFS out based on the last MRE, they'll couch it with the fact they have discovered a new significant lode in La Verde. Not sure why it's called La Verde, it looks pretty brown to me. Maybe they should have been called La Marron or La Cafe.

If the La Verde MRE gets to where it probably should on the current dimensions (400x500x300x2.6 = 156Mt @ 0.4% = 600Kt), then the overall tonnage goes well above 4Mt CuEq. Proposed mine life extended 4+ years. But, that's just a start for this deposit, potentially. Although, they still have to move the ore to a central hub for processing and that's going to be a long way away.

 

[Barnouste]

Might have been a DB down there but I think I've said that before, like Aug/Sep 24. Hitting some resistance too.

The PFS is supposed to be out this quarter but I doubt they'll get it out on the already delayed timetable. They've been terrible at meeting guidance to market for years.

Even when they get the PFS out based on the last MRE, they'll couch it with the fact they have discovered a new significant lode in La Verde. Not sure why it's called La Verde, it looks pretty brown to me. Maybe they should have been called La Marron or La Cafe.

If the La Verde MRE gets to where it probably should on the current dimensions (400x500x300x2.6 = 156Mt @ 0.4% = 600Kt), then the overall tonnage goes well above 4Mt CuEq. Proposed mine life extended 4+ years. But, that's just a start for this deposit, potentially. Although, they still have to move the ore to a central hub for processing and that's going to be a long way away.


View attachment 193717

They need a Gazillion $'s to develop this. If one reads up on BHP then my impression is that they're looking at Cu moving in 2028, add a year or so for the usual market delay to these matters and we're at 2030, fair enough as EV projections have slowed and the whole climate change urgency has abated somewhat.

There's no hurry for anyone to stump up the big $$$$'s need for Costa Fuego, a JV or Huasco to contribute to Capex.

There's a lot to play out and I doubt we've seen the bottom after recent news. I expect the PFS to disappoint the market unless there's a huge surprise between now and then in terms of funding or a JV and I don't think that will happen this year, maybe not even next year.

Trump's words and actions are creating risk off in the markets.

 

[Sean K]

They need a Gazillion $'s to develop this. If one reads up on BHP then my impression is that they're looking at Cu moving in 2028, add a year or so for the usual market delay to these matters and we're at 2030, fair enough as EV projections have slowed and the whole climate change urgency has abated somewhat.

There's no hurry for anyone to stump up the big $$$$'s need for Costa Fuego, a JV or Huasco to contribute to Capex.

There's a lot to play out and I doubt we've seen the bottom after recent news. I expect the PFS to disappoint the market unless there's a huge surprise between now and then in terms of funding or a JV and I don't think that will happen this year, maybe not even next year.

Trump's words and actions are creating risk off in the markets.

PFS capex will scare the crap out of people. I think the PEA was about US$1b, so I'd guess add 25% to that, at least.

There needs to be an 'incentive' price for this to get developed. Like uranium was about $60 to get the old mines out of mothballs, I guess $5 Cu is what will make these porphyrs with huge capexes feasible. I think that's going to happen in a few years. 2028 is a good guess.

If you have the patience and can sustain a potentially massive drawdown, you could make money on this in the long term.

I lost patience with management a while ago.

 

[Sean K]

This is not a good look. Whenever 'effective immediately' is added to the exit and it's more than one at a time, it stinks.

 

[The Triangle]

This is not a good look. Whenever 'effective immediately' is added to the exit and it's more than one at a time, it stinks.

View attachment 195080

is 66 cents a new all time low??? 100% stink-a-rama. Speculation time:

1) Large shareholder block requested their resignation because they were preventing something from happening (probably not - otherwise replacements would have been named)
2) Caught in the office in sexually explicit actions. (probably not - but would be interesting!)
3) Sick of the MD and could not get backroom shareholder backing to get a new one.... I give this a high likelihood
4) Saw no hope and some horrific capital raisings on the horizon and decided to bail before it hurt their reputations....I give this a high likelihood
5) Did not agree with Pre-PFS results and decided financial engineering and creative accounting was occurring....I give this a high likelihood

One maybe all of the above???

Thought these were the new board members brought in relatively recently with the consolidation (did they list in North America too? I can't recall) -

Christian needs to go - he's been there since day one collecting a paycheque while delivering squat for shareholders. Typical West Aussie junior mentality. Paid himself $400,000 salary last year. Add on super, bonuses, expenses... His shareholding is minuscule for someone who is the 'founder' and been there 15 years.

 

[Sean K]

is 66 cents a new all time low??? 100% stink-a-rama. Speculation time:

1) Large shareholder block requested their resignation because they were preventing something from happening (probably not - otherwise replacements would have been named)
2) Caught in the office in sexually explicit actions. (probably not - but would be interesting!)
3) Sick of the MD and could not get backroom shareholder backing to get a new one.... I give this a high likelihood
4) Saw no hope and some horrific capital raisings on the horizon and decided to bail before it hurt their reputations....I give this a high likelihood
5) Did not agree with Pre-PFS results and decided financial engineering and creative accounting was occurring....I give this a high likelihood

One maybe all of the above???

Thought these were the new board members brought in relatively recently with the consolidation (did they list in North America too? I can't recall) -

Christian needs to go - he's been there since day one collecting a paycheque while delivering squat for shareholders. Typical West Aussie junior mentality. Paid himself $400,000 salary last year. Add on super, bonuses, expenses... His shareholding is minuscule for someone who is the 'founder' and been there 15 years.

Agree with 3, 4, 5.

RR recently said what they lacked was a high grade core starter pit. I think he put NAB in position prior to this and has often promoted HCH at his conferences, because he believed in CE, owned it, and the longer term copper narrative. Something in this mix has gone wrong. Has RR ditched them and henceforth NAB bailed to save reputation?

Whatever the case, it looks like trouble.

 

[Sean K]

PFS finally out.

As guessed Capex 25% higher at $1.25b.
IRR 19%, yikes, but that's a big porphyr.
Production under 120Kt pa CuEq but only 95Kt pa copper. Many would have hoped for more.
LOM revenue US$17.3b makes it a Tier 1 I think.

Copper over $6 will make this look much better and that's just a matter of time.
Maybe by the time they get a DFS out some time in the 2030s.

I can not believe the MD has the gaul to claim that they got this out "on time". What an insult.

 

[Sean K]

Someone on another site asked Chat GPT to do a comparison of this and Filo's key asset- Filo del Sol.

(Filo was sold for CAD$4.5b to BHP and Lundin)

1. Scale and Production

• Filo del Sol: Anticipates processing 60,000 tonnes per day (tpd) over a 14-year mine life, yielding average annual production of 67,000 tonnes of copper, 159,000 ounces of gold, and 8.65 million ounces of silver.The Lundin Group
• Costa Fuego: Plans a 20-year mine life with average annual production of 116,000 tonnes of copper equivalent (CuEq) during the initial 14 years, including 95,000 tonnes of copper and 48,000 ounces of gold.

2. Cost Competitiveness

• Filo del Sol: Reports a Life-of-Mine (LOM) average C1 cash cost of $1.23 per pound of CuEq.The Lundin Group
• Costa Fuego: Indicates a LOM average C1 cash cost of $1.38 per pound of copper and an All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $1.85 per pound of copper, positioning it in the lower quartile globally.

3. Capital Intensity

• Filo del Sol: Requires an initial capital expenditure of $1.27 billion, with a capital intensity of approximately $18,955 per tonne of annual CuEq production.
• Costa Fuego: Estimates an initial capital cost of $1.27 billion, resulting in a capital intensity of $14,079 per tonne of annual CuEq production, placing it among the lowest quartile globally.

4. Financial Metrics and Economics

• Filo del Sol: At base case metal prices ($3.00/lb Cu, $1,300/oz Au, $20/oz Ag), reports an after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) at an 8% discount rate of $1.28 billion and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 23%.The Lundin Group+1Filo Mining Corp.+1
• Costa Fuego: At a base case copper price of $4.30/lb, indicates a post-tax NPV8% of $1.2 billion and an IRR of 19%. At current spot prices (~$5.30/lb Cu), the NPV increases to approximately $2.2 billion with an IRR of 30%.

5. Risk and Permitting

• Filo del Sol: Located in the Andes Mountains on the Chile-Argentina border, the project benefits from the Mining Integration and Complementation Treaty between the two countries, facilitating cross-border mining projects.The Lundin Group+1Newswire+1
• Costa Fuego: Situated at a lower elevation with established infrastructure and permitted access to seawater for processing, reducing development and operational risks.

6. Ore Reserve and Grade

• Filo del Sol: Probable reserves of 259.1 million tonnes grading 0.39% copper, 0.33 g/t gold, and 15.1 g/t silver, containing 2.23 million tonnes of copper, 2.76 million ounces of gold, and 126 million ounces of silver.MINING.COM+1NS Energy+1
• Costa Fuego: Probable reserves of 502 million tonnes grading 0.37% copper, 0.10 g/t gold, and 97 ppm molybdenum, with significant gold and molybdenum credits enhancing project economics.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @Sean K . Any other time I’d be throwing a few kopeks at this.

gg.

 

[Sean K]

Just reviewing my yearly comp picks and I think I might be miraculously just in front on this turkey turd.

I picked it because I thought it was so far in the toilet that any movement on POC, and with the PFS coming out, it might have looked like a long term good thing. Especially when you compare it to Filo that got bought by BHP and Lundin in a much less favourable location for $4.5b or something.

Perhaps the much heralded Chair and one of the other Directors leaving with immediate effect with no reason whatsoever (good comms) just before the PFS was a sign. It's crap, and will continue to be crap in the toilet.

I might have to buy back in with this analysis.

 

[Sean K]

They've miraculously got this out in Q1, which they will claim is 'on time'.

Capex for the sea water looks OK but the desal will blow punters sox off. I think US1.4b is well over A$2b.

IRRs below 20%.

Who is going to give them the money to do this? Maybe the other copper mines up the hill who have no water at all.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

this thing's going to take off

 

[The Triangle]

Who is going to give them the money to do this?

More dumb moms and dads?

Just have to wait another decade or two or three and this might be a good project.

These "PFS" results in the past few days explain exactly why there were board departures. They'd a seen it and thought - na, no way is this feasible in its current form. Like sunrise over in NSW. It'll always be around asking for money, but never generating any.

is it now at record lows? when is the next capital raising?

 

[Sean K]

More dumb moms and dads?

Just have to wait another decade or two or three and this might be a good project.

These "PFS" results in the past few days explain exactly why there were board departures. They'd a seen it and thought - na, no way is this feasible in its current form. Like sunrise over in NSW. It'll always be around asking for money, but never generating any.

is it now at record lows? when is the next capital raising?

I think they're going to have to wait for a long term base in copper prices well above what they've put in the PFS models. Maybe $7-8lb? Could happen in the next decade.

I've been googling to try and find out why the directors left or were booted and there's not a thing out there. Very dodgy.

Rick Rule seems to be still supporting this. He's got CE presenting at his Symposium in Boca in July. He only has companies presenting who he owns. Maybe this is one he's losing his shirt on, like CTM.

 

[The Triangle]

I think they're going to have to wait for a long term base in copper prices well above what they've put in the PFS models. Maybe $7-8lb? Could happen in the next decade.

I've been googling to try and find out why the directors left or were booted and there's not a thing out there. Very dodgy.

Rick Rule seems to be still supporting this. He's got CE presenting at his Symposium in Boca in July. He only has companies presenting who he owns. Maybe this is one he's losing his shirt on, like CTM.

Reasonable thought.

Too many people have seen in the workings of HCH over the past 15 years or so. The only interested parties are the ones who gain a salary for life and those who have hope a few more exploration holes will hit some high grade...Id like to see a tenement map with all the holes as I can't imagine they have anywhere else left to drill - which would be attractive.

Gold is different, move a few metres and find yourself a whole new vein system. But copper? Mmm. Not really.

I see now in the 50 cents range 59.5 as I post.

 

[Sean K]

Reasonable thought.

Too many people have seen in the workings of HCH over the past 15 years or so. The only interested parties are the ones who gain a salary for life and those who have hope a few more exploration holes will hit some high grade...Id like to see a tenement map with all the holes as I can't imagine they have anywhere else left to drill - which would be attractive.

Gold is different, move a few metres and find yourself a whole new vein system. But copper? Mmm. Not really.

I see now in the 50 cents range 59.5 as I post.

Thus Spoke Zamarket.

@Dona Ferentes

Not quite.