Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[DaveTrade]

The 'Technical' chaps are worried:

Technical traders that know what they're doing are not worried, they are looking for another good entry point just like a lot of other traders.

 

[Sean K]

The 'Technical' chaps are worried:

View attachment 187376View attachment 187375

jog on
duc

You're scaring me again ducati.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Technical traders that know what they're doing are not worried, they are looking for another good entry point just like a lot of other traders.

You're scaring me again ducati.

This is quite a volatile time so I will not be making a decision as to what to do with gold for aa few days, whether to continue holding, to buy or to sell. A momentous change has occurred with Trump's election. When considering Trump's effect on gold I believe his policies would have a similar effect to Harris' were we unfortunate enough to have the US elect her.

Let us not worry for a few days but work, on the initial reactions, other markets' reactions to the election and further effects such as the $AUD/$USD movements. Traders, long term holders, central banks, shorters and criminals holding bitcoin will all be wondering what to do.

We shall take it one step at a time. As an aside, the first thing the Australian government should do is recall and sack that buffoon Rudd from Washington. Small things matter, and out of small things big things grow.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold would appear to have dropped $USD 40 to $2700 as the election was called for Trump. It immediately recovered.



So I have not yet opened my panic room which contains my panic cupboard within which is my panic porte which contains my charged old Nokia phone with a direct line to a good looking gal called Gwen or Guiying to us in the know at Commsec who was a comely young lass in the day but could very well be living in a mansion in Hong Kong nowadays.

Trading between $2750 and $2700 may be a new normal for gold. Let us see. Some analysts were saying that Trump's tariffs would cause so much disruption to bonds and money markets that gold would rise. Why did it fall? Who knows. Is it a short term thing? Who knows?

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The $AUD fell from $USD0.6810 to $0.6517 and then recovered to $0.6524 . Which doing maths on my fingers equates to about a 0.5% fall. Not that much in the big scheme of things but enough to move stocks such as PMGOLD which will be more expensive to buy and garner better prices when sold via the ASX.



Looking at the moves over the past year it is the most immediate but by not by any means the largest nor smallest move on currency markets which repsonds immediately to fundamentals.




gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

That's enough from me.

Where to from here?

gg

 

[Sean K]

That's enough from me.

Where to from here?

gg

A few sherberts, a snooze and re-evaluate when the dust settles.

I don't think either of the least worse candidates in history had any plan to reign in debt.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

An example of the effect that the change in forex has on the gold price since it became obvious that Trump would be the 47th shows :
At just a few moments ago the change in the Gold price today was down 0.66% in $USD, and up 0.11% in $AUD.

I don't have the skills nor math background to juggle two ( three if you treat $AUD and $USD as two separate entities ) which are such rapidly changing assets. Those of us holding or trading Gold just go with one or the other, I go with $USD for sentiment i.e deciding to buy and sell ( is it on the way up or down ) and $AUD for actual $amount and spreads, limits on buys and sells or at market buys and sells. Otherwise you go nuts !

@Sean K 's advice ( and mine btw ) to wait for the mist to clear is good advice imo.

I cannot comment on gold stocks as I have no expertise in that area of investing.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

An example of the effect that the change in forex has on the gold price since it became obvious that Trump would be the 47th shows :
At just a few moments ago the change in the Gold price today was down 0.66% in $USD, and up 0.11% in $AUD.

I don't have the skills nor math background to juggle two ( three if you treat $AUD and $USD as two separate entities ) which are such rapidly changing assets. Those of us holding or trading Gold just go with one or the other, I go with $USD for sentiment i.e deciding to buy and sell ( is it on the way up or down ) and $AUD for actual $amount and spreads, limits on buys and sells or at market buys and sells. Otherwise you go nuts !

@Sean K 's advice ( and mine btw ) to wait for the mist to clear is good advice imo.

I cannot comment on gold stocks as I have no expertise in that area of investing.

gg

for whatever reason, the USD is considered a safehaven, a mostly weird consideration but that is the way the dominant market behaves.
Whenever there is a crisis, a level of uncertainty, the potential for great change, the USD will always go up against everything.
For those who think that Trumps's ascension to to his heavenly throne will bring all manner of disaster, my advice to you is to buy the USD.
Mick

 

[greggles]

That was a pretty weak sell off. Silver had the same weak sell off. I don't think traders are worried about PMs because nothing has really changed. The formula is still the same. Print big, spend big, put the rest on the credit card. Trump spent big last time, he'll spend big this time only it'll be spent to please his own voter base.

"Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."

Trump has a grudge against Iran, so he is going to be very pro-Israel. As for Ukraine, I don't think that's going to be a simple fix despite his assurances.

Also, Trump is very pro-business and silver is an industrial metal so that would be bullish for silver.

I think we may see some hysterical traders jump out at the open tonight but I think buyers will move in quickly and I expect we'll see a bounce.

 

[Sdajii]

I was expecting a Harris victory due to fraud, but they couldn't pull it off this time with so much scrutiny, so Trump is back. If I'd anticipated that I'd have sold gold early today before the result. I'm not surprised to see gold fall in USD, mostly because the market knows Trump will be good for the US economy and USD, thus reducing gold's price in USD (though not so much in AUD), and partly because some people are scared of a Trump term (ironic since last time he ended wars, started none, and heavily improved the US economy and global stability). Unless we have extreme TDS we can see that Trump is good for the American economy and global economics. Of course, TDS is widespread and that impact on the market is not negligible.

I agree with greggles, silver being an industrial metal should do better than gold under Trump.

Additionally, Trump is pro crypto, meaning no doubt some money is moving from gold to crypto on the election result.

While I'm very happy to see a Trump victory (not that I like Trump, but under America under the Democrats would have meant far less stability, safety and prosperity for the world), it does mean my gold holdings aren't set to rocket like they would have under Harris. Of course, short term, TDS riots in the US are likely and short term anything could happen to the perception of the market.

 

[finicky]

.. not that I like Trump ..

You have exited my top ten

 

[rederob]

For those worried about POG, fear not.
Under POTUS #45 POG nearly doubled in price.
Yes there was a big retrace after his election, just as happened yesterday and has continued into our morning, but Trump's economic incompetence, especially relating to managing debt, will be a huge plus for bugs.
And the evidence?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

For those worried about POG, fear not.
Under POTUS #45 POG nearly doubled in price.
Yes there was a big retrace after his election, just as happened yesterday and has continued into our morning, but Trump's economic incompetence, especially relating to managing debt, will be a huge plus for bugs.
And the evidence?
View attachment 187474

The only difference this time is Trump's endorsement of BTC. Although I agree, Trump per se is not a harbinger of a fall in Gold.

gg

 

[Sean K]

The GDX.ARC was bought up on the initial sell off last night which is a slight positive out of the PM sell-off. Maybe the damage will be slightly limited, but there obviously will be damage.

Is it going to be a BTD opportunity?

 

[mullokintyre]

I have put in quite a few low ball bid on goldies.
TCG, RSG, WAF and EVN are all in my sights.
I am also preparing to load up on silver - SBVL, ARD and even the dreaded MKR.
The gold/Silver pull back may go further, i do not know.
However, I am confident that once the dust settles and people realise that the rest of the world is shunning the USD, gold will become more important.
If trump brings in Tarriffs against other countries, there will be even less need for them to hold USD reserves.
Gold and other physical commodities are only going one way.
mick

 

[Sdajii]

For those worried about POG, fear not.
Under POTUS #45 POG nearly doubled in price.
Yes there was a big retrace after his election, just as happened yesterday and has continued into our morning, but Trump's economic incompetence, especially relating to managing debt, will be a huge plus for bugs.
And the evidence?
View attachment 187474

Interpretation is important here. Note that the price of gold was flat for most of Trump's term and rallied as it was coming to an end, on the assumption (correct as it turned out) that he would not be reelected. When Trump was elected the first time gold had not just rallied. Currently, gold has just rallied hard and so it's much easier for it to fall hard.

I think we can all agree that if Harris had been elected, gold would have surged. Biden was in office and gold did surge. The last four years have been completely insane, probably the most ridiculous four years in the history of the USA, so there's a lot of potential reversal to be done. Gold has fully doubled in price since late in Trump's first term, and is well over double what it was during most of Trump's last term. That's a massive potential reversal, as opposed to the situation when Trump first took office when gold had been falling heavily for the previous six years!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The last 24 hours have been quite interesting with the anticipated fall in the POG which was immediate and chilling to watch. Hopefully we will trade sideways or if there is a further fall it will stop at some of the many resistance levels mentioned by previous posters. I won't feel completely at ease until we are back up at $USD 2740. Hopefully this will stop the stratospheric rise in Gold which most traders and investors do not really feel comfortable with. It does go to show that one day you are a rooster and the next a feather duster. **** a ......





gg

 

[qldfrog]

Interpretation is important here. Note that the price of gold was flat for most of Trump's term and rallied as it was coming to an end, on the assumption (correct as it turned out) that he would not be reelected. When Trump was elected the first time gold had not just rallied. Currently, gold has just rallied hard and so it's much easier for it to fall hard.

I think we can all agree that if Harris had been elected, gold would have surged. Biden was in office and gold did surge. The last four years have been completely insane, probably the most ridiculous four years in the history of the USA, so there's a lot of potential reversal to be done. Gold has fully doubled in price since late in Trump's first term, and is well over double what it was during most of Trump's last term. That's a massive potential reversal, as opposed to the situation when Trump first took office when gold had been falling heavily for the previous six years!

I feel it might be a good btd, but i am already overweight gold silver
I will look at my last offload. And put back some pm there

 

[frugal.rock]

panic porte which contains my charged old Nokia phone with a direct line to a good looking gal called Gwen or Guiying

3g won't work for you anymore. Or is that just a NSW thing?