Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'll buy some more on a pullback, but generally happy with what I've got.

Have bought chunks in Aug 22, Feb 23, Jan 24, Mar 24. With a couple of crappy DRPs.

Good on you @Sean K

I’ve made some bad calls over the years with Gold stocks and incurred losses. I guess that has made me wary of investing in that space. I’ve considered getting back in at times such as you mentioned and received good info from various posters here on ASF. I’ll stick with the yellow metal though and leave the stocks to guys with a better hang of them.

It looks at last that there are some clear skies for them now. I wish you guys all the best.

gg

 

[greggles]

And there we are at last. A$4,000 gold.

 

[Sean K]

And there we are at last. A$4,000 gold.

View attachment 185984

A couple of parabolic moves after significant breakouts.

Been a good trade since 2019.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The highest PMGOLD got to today was $39.74 , the ASX must have closed before the final push over $4000 this afternoon. I do wish you guys wouldn't change your clocks so much, it's doing my head in and it's bad for your sex life. Dr. Who I am not. I believe New York changes clocks in early November which is another discomfort I must look forward to.

gg

 

[ducati916]

Free book on history of gold:

https://academy.saifedean.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Lips-Gold-Wars.pdf?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

jog on
duc

 

[win98]

I totally get what you're saying. With inflation creeping up, gold tends to shine as a safe haven. It’s always a good idea to keep an eye on gold prices during uncertain times, especially if you're looking to hedge against inflation. Overall I think you should invest in gold, anytime it will hold a price, even if its not the highest.

 

[DaveTrade]

I totally get what you're saying. With inflation creeping up, gold tends to shine as a safe haven. It’s always a good idea to keep an eye on gold prices during uncertain times, especially if you're looking to hedge against inflation. Overall I think you should invest in gold, anytime it will hold a price, even if its not the highest.

Hence the saying "this could be a golden opportunity".

 

[Sean K]

@Garpal Gumnut call of a $2600 support level has proved correct.

I was perversely hoping it would drop a bit deeper to other support levels to add a bit of coin, but it ran away from me, again.

I wonder if JMP and China will try and keep the price down a bit longer or if it's out of their control.

Looks like FOMO with the BTD at every opportunity now.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@Garpal Gumnut call of a $2600 support level has proved correct.

I was perversely hoping it would drop a bit deeper to other support levels to add a bit of coin, but it ran away from me, again.

I wonder if JMP and China will try and keep the price down a bit longer or if it's out of their control.

Looks like FOMO with the BTD at every opportunity now.

View attachment 186041

Thankfully !!

My first 5oz buy of Gold back in the late 1970's was for $600 an ounce when it fell from about $800.

It continued to fall and it took 7 or 8 years to get back to what I paid for it. So gold can go up and down. The USD and the AUD were at parity and for a while the AUD was actually stronger than the USD.

Interesting times now, as they have always been. Gold seems set above the $AUD 4000 mark now. ( touches head ).

gg

 

[ducati916]

Gold will make a run for the PP





Setting up nicely.

At work, more and more people are talking about gold. Gradually re-entering the mainstream.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It will not be long before we see Gold and Silver ingots on sale at Bunnings or Harvey Norman.

That great group originally named by Paul Keating as the Mr. and Mrs Shopping-Trolley family have the bit between their teeth, credit cards out and are ready to purchase the shiny metal.

gg

 

[DaveTrade]

Gold is looking very strong but markets don't just go straight up. You can see on the chart below the steepness of this latest move and how far it is away from the 50MA now, gold is due for a consolidation or pullback. Traders entering the market now would be entering with increased risk unless you are trading very short-term. @Sean K has mentioned this earlier and now this market has entered into my look-for-pullback zone.

is latest

 

[Sean K]

Gold is looking very strong but markets don't just go straight up. You can see on the chart below the steepness of this latest move and how far it is away from the 50MA now, gold is due for a consolidation or pullback. Traders entering the market now would be entering with increased risk unless you are trading very short-term. @Sean K has mentioned this earlier and now this market has entered into my look-for-pullback zone.

View attachment 186076is latest

It's going parabolic FOMO. Not healthy, but fun to watch while it lasts.

@ducati916 keeps reminding us with longer term charts and what happened in the 70s and naughties to put it in perspective.

Long term chart below not algo, but they were some serious moves. Let's hope history repeats. The planets do seem aligned.

Not sure what will stop it short term other than prudent profit taking, or peace breaking out in Europe and The Middle East as a short term shakeout.

 

[finicky]

Parabolas getting bigger

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It's going parabolic FOMO. Not healthy, but fun to watch while it lasts.

@ducati916 keeps reminding us with longer term charts and what happened in the 70s and naughties to put it in perspective.

Long term chart below not algo, but they were some serious moves. Let's hope history repeats. The planets do seem aligned.

Not sure what will stop it short term other than prudent profit taking, or peace breaking out in Europe and The Middle East as a short term shakeout.

View attachment 186085

Indeed @Sean K

The chart you posted is an EW interest group's stick book.

We are either at the end of a Wave 5 or two thirds of the way through a Wave 3. Let's hope we don't have to relearn our ABC's. Seriously though it is getting rather extended, but as you say FOMO is just starting. I'll ask Mrs Gumnut if there is anything in the Daily Mail about Gold.

gg

 

[Sdajii]

Gold is looking very strong but markets don't just go straight up. You can see on the chart below the steepness of this latest move and how far it is away from the 50MA now, gold is due for a consolidation or pullback. Traders entering the market now would be entering with increased risk unless you are trading very short-term. @Sean K has mentioned this earlier and now this market has entered into my look-for-pullback zone.

View attachment 186076is latest

Markets don't go straight up... except when they do. Sean's chart shows two great examples. Gold is quite an exceptional commodity. It's not just a company held by mum and dad shareholders who are going to react according to simple and often foolish thinking, and it doesn't exist off anyone's radar. It's gold. It is on the radar not only of every investor in the world, but right up to every national government in the world. It follows different rules even from bluechip companies - the government of Brazil or Mozambique or Germany won't be buying, selling or holding any BHP, but they certainly deal with gold.

Right now we all know gold is on the way up. Widespread inflation and the severe weakening of the USD make that inevitable. Why would you be selling gold right now? If we were looking at the same chart on an ASX-listed company, sure, you'd be getting an itchy finger hovering over the sell button, looking for a swing trade, even if you loved the fundamentals, but this is gold, it's a different game, the entire world knows it's going to go higher and the highest level players in the world and all staring right at it.

Obviously at some time it will pull back and/or consolidate, but in this case it's most likely going to overshoot before doing that rather than pulling back before running higher. It's very difficult to calculate gold's value now since gold's value has never really made any sense, but given how we value gold, how extreme inflation is and how bad the decline of the USA and her currency is, gold is clearly going a lot higher than it current is, everyone knows it, so we're unlikely to see much of a pullback for a while. *just this second gold hit a new all time high* Sure, we might see a pullback to $2600 or even $2500, but we also might keep running without much of a pullback or consolidation until $3,000 or more. Such a run would not be unprecedented for gold, and the current global situation is clearly quite extreme - the global money printing for the recent covid insanity was extreme, and in the big gold runs of 1980 and around 2010, we weren't seeing the world staring at the collapse of the USA. We also have a very obvious TA setup, the multi year cup and handle, which we started running up out of this year, which has a technical target of around $3,000, which is all sorts of obvious as a checkpoint we're likely to reach without a pullback or even much of a consolidation.

Of course, anything could potentially happen, but that very much includes gold going for a huge run, ignoring things like the 50 day MA.

Thanks, Sean, for posting that chart.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I thought I'd post an EW chart. My belief is that we are in a Wave 3 and that this wave will extend probably to half again or double it's length before there is a Wave 4, i.e. a retracement. ( Wave 3 is usually the longest and always longer than Wave 1 ).

I've used PMGOLD.ASX as a proxy for the POG and included 3 possible Wave 1's. Take your pick ! In any case the present Wave 3 as shown does not seem all that parabolic now that I'm looking at it in comparison to Wave 1.

There is a significant resistance/support at $38 to which any significant retracement will fall imo.

All prices quoted are approximations except for the price of PMGOLD.ASX




gg

 

[Captain_Chaza]

It's going parabolic FOMO. Not healthy, but fun to watch while it lasts.

@ducati916 keeps reminding us with longer term charts and what happened in the 70s and naughties to put it in perspective.

Long term chart below not algo, but they were some serious moves. Let's hope history repeats. The planets do seem aligned.

Not sure what will stop it short term other than prudent profit taking, or peace breaking out in Europe and The Middle East as a short term shakeout.

View attachment 186085

Can I Suggest you Look at the Logarithmic Chart Format for a TRUE Picture of % Gains
You may find the Truth is not that Flattering?

 

[Sean K]

Can I Suggest you Look at the Logarithmic Chart Format for a TRUE Picture of % Gains
You may find the Truth is not that Flattering?

Can you help me with that Capt?

 

[Rosscoe62]

Hi Sean,

I Agree with the Captain on this one, gold has perhaps another year or so to continue its growth pattern BUT many variables are in play for a huge retraction.

Presently gold is experiencing the most positive, ‘ go get em’ factors with sentiment.

The gold price has been relentless, up … up … up but like all good things it has to correct, it’s only a matter of time.

Things to watch for gold,, USD falling (it’ll happen and investors/ traders will be caught with their pants down), that’ll also be a sign to get out of stocks as well (anything under $100USD …. Watch very closely), supply and demand, inflation reduction, the state of the global economies and individual companies supporting the growth.

By the way I hold two growth companies in the gold.

I have an alternative view on gold ….

Economic policies and decisions made by governments and central banks around the world can influence gold prices. Policies related to interest rates, inflation control, and currency valuation all play a role in shaping the gold market.

Physical gold is a different proposition, if I was a holder I’d be a seller sometime late next year or the year after. Take the profits and run for the hills.

As with any bull market, they have to end at some stage. Things are looking fantastic at present with gold as is the current play with the stockmarket but I believe things will change and quickly with the euphoria/sentiment. All part of the 18.6 property cycle ..

Gold returned fantastic results during the GFC and currently but current fundamentals & technicals are saying otherwise. Keep staying strong but be warned, things eventually will turn.

My thoughts and in my humble opinion there are better places to stash away the hard earned at present. Gold is becoming overvalued, I stand to be corrected but my gut says don’t buy, it’s all a part of a cycle but unfortunately many will be burnt …

Caution plays against sentiment in times such as the present.