Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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i guess there is no such thing as a free lunch. Gold followers have had an impressive run over the last 12 mo. We need some stability and consolidation. Nothing goes up forever.

Obviously nobody likes a crash in an asset but it woulld not bother me if gold went sideways for 3-6 months before the next leg up. Just because a lunatic got elected as POTUS is no reason to panic.

Anyways, he's quite aged so I wouldn't be surprised to see him cark it of natural causes like syphilis or the plague if somebody else doesn't shoot at him again with a better aim.

gg
 
Could this be the turning point for Gold after running brilliantly since Oct 2022 although the actual bull run started way back in 2019?

Along the way some temporary troughs but overall powerful upward strength particularly the last two years with sustained momentum.

I mentioned back on October 18 here that this bull run had to end at some stage. I certainly didn’t see this sudden correction coming ….

Are we seeing the beginning of a downslide trend now? How much further will this slide last? Is this just a brief pause after such a powerful run or is it something that will lead to a major sell-off? Only time will tell …

Volumes selling gold stocks are becoming more intense.

I am now out of all of my gold players completely (last 2 sold recently) and redirecting profits into other sectors with particular companies that are still powering along and showing strength.


Interesting times ahead -

1731367466974.png
 
This is quite a challenging time for gold investors/traders. It is no coincidence that Gold is falling as Bitcoin rises, the risk on / risk off battle ( I can never remember which is which ). Anyway it is a battle. Fundamentals have driven Gold up and fundamentals drive it down. It is wise to consider getting out at a profit, a consideration which is now entertaining me. Fear and greed with red sauce please.

I remember the fall back in April of this year and am looking at it and the present retracement for comparison in $AUD with the PMGOLD.ASX chart as that is what I trade and invest in.

PMGOLD2.png

So far the fall is not as great nor has the volume reached the heights it did. this is the only way that I can make sense out of what is happening. Gold is no longe overbought on the RSI and the trend is intact as it was in April before the consolidation but a gap has appeared overnight. Apologies to bore with this but it helps to concentrate my mind.

gg
 
I think this is an interesting case study in investor psychology. I promptly sold out of gold last week before the world had the weekend to digest the situation and decide to make a decision. Selling gold is a big decision and requires a sudden change in a long-term, fixed mindset. Shortly after the election, gold had something of a crash when the fast thinkers quickly dumped. Then a dead cat bounce then the weekend, then a brief moment on Monday while the market waited to see what would happen, then a progressive crash as people across the world woke up, started their week and saw what everyone else was doing.

We see the same thing happening on individual companies. The timing works differently depending on the size of the company and the psychology of the demographic invested in it. Gold is at the extreme end of the spectrum in terms of market cap and investor type (it's certainly not primarily held and directed by mum and dad investors), but humans are still human and need time to digest a situation, and most are still heavily influenced by herd mentality, whether they're a small retail investor or the head of a major bank or country. No matter how obvious a situation is, most people psychologically can not take action until the herd does; we are social creatures. The pause on Monday before the herd spoke was very interesting. The direction was almost certainly going to be down (easier to say now in hindsight, but I did have more than half my wealth in precious metals until selling all after the election last week) but no one wanted to be the first to act.

You can apply this same principle to trading stocks.

Everyone has been saying for a long time that gold is due for a correction even if it will then continue up. This is the pretty obvious time for that to happen. Many people for reasons which fascinate me will hold stocks or commodities even if they know with near certainty the price/value will drop considerably short term, if they are sure it will then go higher in the future, even if that process will take months or years. Watching human insanity over the road at HC has taught me a lot about investor behaviour and psychology, and the irrational movements we see on various markets make sense when you put them in the context of typical irrational human psychology.
 
I am betting gold will start to rise again if Trump starts a trade war and other countries retaliate. If Trump starts to interfere with interest rate decisions with the FED. Will go mostly to cash and buy into a Gold ETF fund rather than a gold miner.

I like an etf fund called GOLD Global X.
 
Without reading through 780 add pages of posts and Search has failed to give me a result either, can anyone tell me how much, if any, Australia has in its gold vault?
 
Sdajii said:
I think this is an interesting case study in investor psychology. I promptly sold out of gold last week before the world had the weekend to digest the situation and decide to make a decision. Selling gold is a big decision and requires a sudden change in a long-term, fixed mindset. Shortly after the election, gold had something of a crash when the fast thinkers quickly dumped. Then a dead cat bounce then the weekend, then a brief moment on Monday while the market waited to see what would happen, then a progressive crash as people across the world woke up, started their week and saw what everyone else was doing.

We see the same thing happening on individual companies. The timing works differently depending on the size of the company and the psychology of the demographic invested in it. Gold is at the extreme end of the spectrum in terms of market cap and investor type (it's certainly not primarily held and directed by mum and dad investors), but humans are still human and need time to digest a situation, and most are still heavily influenced by herd mentality, whether they're a small retail investor or the head of a major bank or country. No matter how obvious a situation is, most people psychologically can not take action until the herd does; we are social creatures. The pause on Monday before the herd spoke was very interesting. The direction was almost certainly going to be down (easier to say now in hindsight, but I did have more than half my wealth in precious metals until selling all after the election last week) but no one wanted to be the first to act.

You can apply this same principle to trading stocks.

Everyone has been saying for a long time that gold is due for a correction even if it will then continue up. This is the pretty obvious time for that to happen. Many people for reasons which fascinate me will hold stocks or commodities even if they know with near certainty the price/value will drop considerably short term, if they are sure it will then go higher in the future, even if that process will take months or years. Watching human insanity over the road at HC has taught me a lot about investor behaviour and psychology, and the irrational movements we see on various markets make sense when you put them in the context of typical irrational human psychology.
Click to expand...

I sensed the change in sentiment the day after it was announced Trump had won the election. All the air got sucked out of the precious metals sector, which had been pumped up for a number of months previously. Had Kamala been elected it would have been a different story.

I expect that this sell off will be overdone and will present a buying opportunity for long term investors. The $US rally will peak before Trump's inauguration when reality sets in and the market realises that fundamentally not much has changed.

I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that gold will test $US2,500 because the $US rally isn't close to being done yet and precious metals won't be able to make much headway until the $US starts to decline again. A lot of money is coming out of precious metals and going into crypto, equities and the $US, but that won't last forever.
 
greggles said:
I sensed the change in sentiment the day after it was announced Trump had won the election. All the air got sucked out of the precious metals sector, which had been pumped up for a number of months previously. Had Kamala been elected it would have been a different story.

I expect that this sell off will be overdone and will present a buying opportunity for long term investors. The $US rally will peak before Trump's inauguration when reality sets in and the market realises that fundamentally not much has changed.

I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that gold will test $US2,500 because the $US rally isn't close to being done yet and precious metals won't be able to make much headway until the $US starts to decline again. A lot of money is coming out of precious metals and going into crypto, equities and the $US, but that won't last forever.
Click to expand...

I agree with most of this, especially about gold being likely to test $2,500 (possibly lower) and it being a good opportunity to buy in (I plan to buy back - still weighing up what form of gold to buy when I jump back in, probably more diversified this time between miners and ETF), and as usual everything will overshoot before pulling back. But, I think the difference between a Trump government and a 'Harris' government/the previous 'Biden' government) is substantial, especially since the Republicans have the senate and the house this time, so it will be full steam ahead for better and worse, as opposed to last time when Trump had his legs tied together and one arm tied behind his back.
 
Craton said:
Lol, am assuming that's in billions, so approx. 70~90 tonnes AU equivalent...
Anyways, had a brain wave, did a online search and lo-and-behold, am not too far off, 80 tonnes including gold on loan according to the RBA
Click to expand...
Didn't Peter Cosgrove sell all our gold?

gg
 

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