Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

It looks as if the POG may take a run up today and this week.

And the $USD/AUD ratio is going with us.

Gold up 0.46% in $AUD
Gold up 0.31% in $USD

Them's the breaks.

gg

 

[rcw1]

@rcw1 I somehow believe Monsieur @Sean K had a pretty good idea of the why
The funny thing here is that the west and especially the US shot itself in the foot with the stealing of Russian assets.
As a gold bug, i will not complain ...

yes @qldfrog reckon @Sean K would indeed be fully conversant ... does provoke conversation though rcw1 took it hook line and sinker, so to speak ha ha ha ha ha all too clever ...

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

POG off a little from it's 2680 ish high late last week. GDX ARC off 3% following that. Still looking overall very bullish, and the last few support areas have yet to be tested.

 

[DannyB0000]

Will wait until there's a correction before buying one of the Goldies. Twice I've paid to much for NST shares, am worried about about to much speculation going on as to how high gold prices are going. FOMO and speculation don't usually end very well.

 

[ducati916]

For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong.

H.L. Mencken

---

When the extent of claims for metal bars in the City of London’s cash, or ‘spot’, gold and silver markets are delineated to new observers and the point made that the market is heading to a crisis as the metal is not available there, a common response is “They’ll do something just like in 2008”.

The implication is that governments and bullion banks, working together, will make the problem will go away with a wave of a wand.

Let’s take a look at the London spot silver market where prior analysis indicates that there is an between 4.3 billion (B) oz. and 6.4B oz. of immediate ownership claims for silver standing in the London cash market.

This analysis from last week looked at London vault data and indications that there is a mere whiff of physical silver available in London vaults for delivery against these claims in an annual global silver market running 1.27 billion (B) oz. of consumption with an estimated 265 million (M) oz. of deficit in supply this year.

They’ll Disappear The Problem, Right?​

Imagine that the central planners and bullion bankers who created this leveraged mess stepped in and ‘did something’ to disappear the problem.

The first obstacle encountered is that central banks and governments do not hold silver with which to resolve the problem. Silver is the historic money of the common person that these planners cannot create by decree and cannot control and has long since been disposed of by central banks.

The next issue is that the cash/spot claims for silver bars in the London over-the-counter (OTC) silver and gold markets are direct party-to-party claims for metal. Such contracts are governed by contract and Common Law and would include the ability of the contract holder to appeal to the courts for an order of specific performance.

Such a specific performance order by the court would direct the counter-party to the contract to deliver or ‘make good’ on the contract. The problem is of course that the scale of claims for metal in the London silver (and gold) market is not currently available for purchase and delivery, at current prices, to the spot contract holder (more on this later).

Ignoring the fact that the UK Government cannot override the Common Law, imagine then that the government was led by a thug who rode rough shod over the law and contracts and by edict simply struck-down the validity of all such claims in the London silver market.

At the lower-bound of the estimate of standing claims in London, 4.3B oz. of claims for physical silver will still be needed globally and the market will then turn elsewhere to source the metal.

The Demand For Silver Will Still Be There​

With an estimated 25B oz. of physical silver above ground, the metal is available - but not at current artificially low prices that stand at just 60% of the high silver price back in 1980.

With the global market informed of London’s geared promissory note silver and gold market deception, the demand will then turn away from London’s digital promises to physical secured metal to meet need.

In a heartbeat, silver and gold markets globally will become physical and supply-demand price discovery will be reinstituted.

The ‘new’ silver and gold prices at that point will be difficult to comprehend.



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Even the slowest are starting to catch on that holding fiat currencies as a reserve asset is a losing proposition.

When oil and all other commodities are priced in your home currency, that you can print at will, the value of holding that currency as a final asset is zero.

Gold is again, fast becoming the Reserve Asset. China who implemented this strategy probably 15yrs ago, aided tremendously by the US confiscation of Russian assets, has broken US hegemony.

That does not mean the USD will disappear. It simply means that it can be devalued faster without causing any real pain to China/Russia and the BRICS generally.

And devalue it will.

Let's look at the previous hegemon:



See the blip higher?

That was Churchill, when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer, bringing the Pound back at pre-war (WWI) parity with the USD. Big mistake, huge mistake!



British U/E, even after the massive losses of manpower in the trenches of France, still with an overvalued Pound, were not competitive with cheaper producers and massive U/E, presaging the Great Depression by 10yrs in the UK.

Can you see the US trying to defend the value of the USD?

No. They will devalue massively. USD won't quite become toilet paper, but not far off.

Basically, we as small fry need to be out of all fiat currencies, other than paying bills etc and in real assets. Your choice. I have gone 90% gold and 9% equities and 1% fiat.

So because the USD is the cleanest dirty shirt, other fiat currencies will lose purchasing power faster than the USD. There could be exceptions, commodity rich currencies, AUD & CAD come to mind, but it all depends on political will. If you trust your politicians, all good, personally, LOL.

jog on
duc

 

[StockyGuy]

Bought some PMGOLD ETF when gold was 1733ish USD on wednesday. For me probably a never-sell, short of massive increase sparked by a real re-jigging of stuff. I believe in the thesis for silver similarly, but the only ETF on ASX that covers silver alone has too high a management fee for my liking. PMGOLD only has 0.15% per annum management fee, so can forget about without fear of it being nibbled away too quickly.

I'm no Schiff-style gold bug, but IMO theres maybe a 10-20% chance in the next 2 decades that gold repeatedly multibags based on today's prices. Definitely seems worth having some skin in the game on that possibility.

3 years, 2 months later and my PMGOLD up 60.64% now. Wish I'd gone harder when I bought my paper gold.

 

[mullokintyre]

Indian gold imports balooning.
From Nikkei Asia

NEW DELHI -- Boosted by a decade-low tariff, India's consumption of gold is expected to achieve robust growth this year as the festive and wedding seasons are just around the corner.
Festival and wedding seasons in the South Asian nation kick off on Thursday, with the biggest Hindu festival of Diwali falling on Nov. 1. During this period, which is considered auspicious, people rush to buy gold as the metal represents luck, and they also tend to keep it for rainy days. On top of seasonal festivities, gold is bought for gifting to a bride, family and friends when there is a wedding in an Indian household.
India saw gold imports surge to a record $10.1 billion in August—more than double compared to a year ago and triple July’s $3.1 billion—according to the Indian Commerce Ministry.

The spike followed the government's late-July decision to cut import taxes on gold and gold dore, a semi-pure alloy, by 9%. The duties now stand at 6% for gold and 5.35% for gold dore, the lowest rates since June 2013, after remaining above 10% for over a decade.

Mick

 

[Sean K]

I thought we might have been heading down to these support levels, but the Middle East propped up the POG by the looks. If peace does break out at some stage then I expect the war premium to come off and cause a dip to whatever support it finds. But, with Israel saying they will respond to Iran's attack, it's probably not going to happen in the next few days.

 

[Sdajii]

I thought we might have been heading down to these support levels, but the Middle East propped up the POG by the looks. If peace does break out at some stage then I expect the war premium to come off and cause a dip to whatever support it finds. But, with Israel saying they will respond to Iran's attack, it's probably not going to happen in the next few days.

View attachment 185244

Let's face it, there's always some skirmish/war/battle breaking out or escalating, and hopes of another one cooling off. Assuming Trump doesn't get back in (which I am), the world isn't going to become a peaceful bed of love and harmony, it's just going to continue on the path it's on, with lot of war and the the continued destruction of the USA and value of the dollar. A Trump victory would be great for the USA and the dollar (thus bad for gold), and we'd see a resolution to the Russia/Ukraine situation, but I'm not sure how much difference it would make to the middle east, and it would be an interesting scenario with China.

Either way, without a Trump victory, you don't have to worry about the war premium coming off the gold price. There will be short term market overreactions to specific events, but the big picture of war being prominent will remain. While we usually hear about the big ones, most of the global conflicts aren't even on the radar of the mainstream news. Western people just focus on the ones the media wants you to focus on, and even then, only the spin they want you to see. The spin has a big impact on the zigs and zags which often only last a few hours anyway, but less so on the overall long term trend.

 

[ducati916]

The charts are telling you that inflation is not dead. That inflation will return biggly.



As hard as they try, they cannot dent the relentless bid from BRICS.

Slowly, retail are getting the email.

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

Throwing some lines on the GLD to see where support may be. Adding basic EW onto this (stole it from Wagner at Kitko, I have no idea) with Fib retracement might also meet some obvious support levels. It would be nice if it kept going linear, but we know that's not how markets work. Wagner's projection for W5 is the same length as W1, so add 40 to wherever this bounces from.

 

[ducati916]

Throwing some lines on the GLD to see where support may be. Adding basic EW onto this (stole it from Wagner at Kitko, I have no idea) with Fib retracement might also meet some obvious support levels. It would be nice if it kept going linear, but we know that's not how markets work. Wagner's projection for W5 is the same length as W1, so add 40 to wherever this bounces from.

View attachment 185336

Mr Sean,



I agree that it has ruuuuuun.







Gold will have probably volatile corrections along the way, at least if the 70's are anything to go by.



Most recent bull also volatile.

That being said: the fundamentals are radically different this time.

1. Gold is becoming again the world's reserve asset, replacing UST;
2. Gold is linked inextricably to POO
3. China and BRICS are at war with US and gold is the weapon.

The things that are the same:

4. Gold will like 1934 and 1971 be revalued against the USD
5. Peasants will again aspire to own gold

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

Mainstream Media are way behind on the gold trade.

It is going to be an interesting reporting period with the last quarter having slightly higher spot prices than Q2. Gold was about $100 up over Q3, so depending on sales timings they all should be looking OK. Not sure how costs are going, early reports had some AISC declining, but that's to be seen.



US investment bank Citi sees “plenty of room for upward re-rating” in Australian gold miners which meet their production guidance as the price of gold continues to soar.

With June quarter production reports due to get underway next week, Citi is sticking to its forecast gold will hit $US3000 per ounce in 2025, saying Evolution Mining was its top pick in the sector.

“We continue to remain positive on the sector given positive mark-to-market on a rapidly rising gold price,” said Citi analyst Kate McCutcheon in a report.

Spot free cash flow yields ranging from 6 per cent to 19 per cent for Evolution, Newmont, Northern Star, Perseus and Regis were about twice their long-term averages of 2-5 per cent, excluding Perseus.

“There is still plenty of room for upward re-rating if gold can hold these levels and companies can deliver on guidance,” McCutcheon added.

Risks around wealth have increased amid Middle East tensions and there are also risks to the US and European property and equity markets, which should be supportive for gold according to Citi.

It comes after the price of gold shot above $US2600 per ounce last month, hitting a record high of $US2685.58. It’s up about 30 per cent this year, 44 per cent in a year and 57 per cent over two years.

The 2024 gold price rally, from $US2000 to $US2500 per ounce, has been skewed towards physical demand, particularly central bank purchases and Chinese retail sector imports. But, since mid-year financial gold traders have rushed to gain exposure via ETFs and futures and options.

 

[qldfrog]

This weekend, a friend not much into share and investment but RE asked me how to buy gold etc...
Gold story starting to leak in the media, and reaching masses.how long after talking investment with your taxi driver should you sell?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm getting on and crankier by the day. I don't have the time to f**k about with hundreds of possibles.

Has anyone thought of going all in on GOLD. The metal. The stuff ?

gg

 

[finicky]

@Garpal Gumnut too late mate, you missed the boat with all the vacillation, lol. Build cash, wait for the inevitable bust that will deflate everything, then buy gold. Or maybe not, I'm indulging in a few cans after months of drought.

 

[rcw1]

@Garpal Gumnut too late mate, you missed the boat with all the vacillation, lol. Build cash, wait for the inevitable bust that will deflate everything, then buy gold. Or maybe not, I'm indulging in a few cans after months of drought.

@finicky do u want a hand in drinking them cans of ???

Just asking

Gold is still overwhelming good oh no looks like gunna hafta embrace that view for some time, reckon …

Kindcregsrds
Rcw1

 

[finicky]

@finicky do u want a hand in drinking them cans of ?

.. Coopers Pale Ale (blue cans). On special, $18 six pack.
No I think I can handle them. Stopped at three cans, do the rest tomorrow then start a new drought. There was some almost subliminal thought as I passed the IGA bottleshop, strategically situated just outside their superrmarket. Can't remember what it was now but I let it sabotage me. The automaton within. Really enjoyed the first two cans, cloud 9.

 

[qldfrog]

Back to serious matter: gold...can still be seized

Hedge funds now targeting Argentina’s gold reserves abroad

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