Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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As I said the gold stocks need volume

XGD average daily volume since 22 feb 50,393,515
Since the 4 th July (when movemnet sort of started in US Gold Indexes and Price of Gold ) average daily volume has only been 45,662,741

SINO
For the same period average daily volume was 886,384 since the 4th July (when they made an announcement) 938,326

As I said volume needs to come in to the Aussie Gold stocks.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm

Please read the above link...may give and indication of what may be happening with US Gold Indexes...and an indication of when volume will increase here.
 
explod said:
On that basis I see the current move as taking out the US$725 gold price in the nearer term. A dollar break below USDX 80.00 will do it. It hit a new low of 80.23 on Wednesday and sits currently at 80.48. Any further rise in oil, almost at a new high, will fuel both respectively
Click to expand...

hmm basing your beliefs on one thing doing something based on another can give you a rude shock.

What ever the fundamentals are i don't really care, the chart is all i follow. For now its so simple gold is in a choppy move until it can break 690 then 700$ on doing that it could go to 900$! or whatever you want to wildly speculate. if it can break 700 have a natural reaction and not break 700 with a close that will clinch it for me and yes we have a new break out.

I will watch your call of 725, for this new run see what happens. like i said i said i have a order at 697.

by the way Explod where in the southeast are u? I live in Oakleigh sth

see what happens
 
bean said:
As I said the gold stocks need volume

XGD average daily volume since 22 feb 50,393,515
Since the 4 th July (when movemnet sort of started in US Gold Indexes and Price of Gold ) average daily volume has only been 45,662,741

SINO
For the same period average daily volume was 886,384 since the 4th July (when they made an announcement) 938,326

As I said volume needs to come in to the Aussie Gold stocks.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm

Please read the above link...may give and indication of what may be happening with US Gold Indexes...and an indication of when volume will increase here.
Click to expand...

Had read that report, however the risistance line as drawn on Martin's chart has since breached on the upside. I suspect his report was prepared some time before the US open last night. I am never over confident about anything and as I said the Aussies always trail a few days, upside and react big downside, we are a conservative bunch, which is good. But keep the powder dry we are ready for gold-bug blue skies
 
Trade_It said:
hmm basing your beliefs on one thing doing something based on another can give you a rude shock.

What ever the fundamentals are i don't really care, the chart is all i follow. For now its so simple gold is in a choppy move until it can break 690 then 700$ on doing that it could go to 900$! or whatever you want to wildly speculate. if it can break 700 have a natural reaction and not break 700 with a close that will clinch it for me and yes we have a new break out.

I will watch your call of 725, for this new run see what happens. like i said i said i have a order at 697.

see what happens
Click to expand...

It is dangerous to only follow one chart in isolation, IMHO. As a believer in gold, I chart "the gold stocks" "the gold Price" and other charts effecting gold such as "the oil chart" "the currency charts" "the gold production charts", all by technical analysis.
 
explod said:
It is dangerous to only follow one chart in isolation, IMHO. As a believer in gold, I chart "the gold stocks" "the gold Price" and other charts effecting gold such as "the oil chart" "the currency charts" "the gold production charts", all by technical analysis.
Click to expand...

Even then, all of these entities are based on changing fundamentals/supply & demand of the underlying commodity. TA & FA are joined at the hip for gold, more so than for any other commodity/currency or jewelry.
 
explod said:
It is dangerous to only follow one chart in isolation, IMHO. As a believer in gold, I chart "the gold stocks" "the gold Price" and other charts effecting gold such as "the oil chart" "the currency charts" "the gold production charts", all by technical analysis.
Click to expand...

LOL good for u.

so how do we get a price target of 725? what did u use to get this price?
 
Trade_It said:
LOL good for u.

so how do we get a price target of 725? what did u use to get this price?
Click to expand...

Not a price target, in saying that it "would take out $725", the charts (all of the charts I track) suggest a new high will be set in the coming month or two beyond the $725. But that is only my idea, I have been wrong before.

Confirmation will come for me when the USDX closes below 80.00 and oil above US$78 will push that. Both charts are perilously close and worth watching
 
explod said:
Not a price target, in saying that it "would take out $725", the charts (all of the charts I track) suggest a new high will be set in the coming month or two beyond the $725. But that is only my idea, I have been wrong before.

Confirmation will come for me when the USDX closes below 80.00 and oil above US$78 will push that. Both charts are perilously close and worth watching
Click to expand...

Well any figure in prices terms that u see being reached or exceeded is a target.

My target is 697 with a push and close above 700, hey Explod i am all for this to happen, I have been waiting a long time. I was in the last two minor rallies and the last that hit 690 and backed off. That's why I can say with conviction this is no different until it proves its self different.

I just dont need to say ok if this and this happens it will happen, why? Cuz if they happen i will see it on the Spot gold chart.

Whatever u use to make your plays is fine even if our opinions are different to what should be watched to trade. I dont trade asx gold miners nor do i want to, I see you need to look at extra as u do. I look at the spot and that's it cuz that's what I trade. I do trade FX pairs I am long on the USD/JPY now.

So if your long on Gold now I hope to see it come true and you will be laughing if we break 700.

Good trading
 
With you all the way Trade It. Our different views makes for interesting and fruitful discussion. I am primarily a holder of physical, have been since about $400 gold. Not in gold stock at the moment either as I too act only on the uptick of the actual.

My input is fishing for the ideas of others. Never stop learning and the current makes for intersting times

cheers Explod
 
I assume that is in USD?? Interesting chart showing gold in AUD and USD over the last five years.

Cheers

Shane
 

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bean said:
I was asked this question several days. Please read this article (with charts) It is important the third paragraph. the whole article sould be read!!!!

Tonight may be another case...Is Gold breaking free??
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm
Click to expand...

The waves of the index (five) have been breached as stated in my post on this subject yesterday, though it has hit some resistance in current trading Sat. morning, our time (often happens in US market on the last day of the week). Of the long term waves, (not shown on the chart) Goldberg asserts that we have only completed wave one. As a proclaimed bullish gold bug, he is making the case that the real upside for the long term gold trend has only just begun. So he is also saying, hold onto those hats when the real action begins to play out. IMHO
 
Unfortunately the charts that go with the article did not transfer over in my copy and paste but if you hit the link you can read the article in its proper context . the 3:16PM is US time.
cheers explod

Dollar Broke Down, Gold's Breakout to $700+/oz Imminent

By John Lee
Jul 20 2007 3:16PM

www.goldmau.com

In June I wrote:

The dollar is likely to meander between 81 and 200 DMA of 84 for another month. Hiking of euro rates failed to propel Euro past 1.35. I still think USDX will break out to the upside. I have been bearish of the Euro at 1.35, I still don’t think Euro can take out 1.35. Euro at 163 to the yen is just not natural in my view.

I was wrong, plain and simple. The dollar is showing exceptional weakness and another 5-10% breakdown can not be ruled out.

The Euro has now broken through key resistance of 1.37, if 1.37 holds, this week, we can see the dollar index below 80. I believe people are betting against the dollar due to the inability for the Fed to raise rates (subprime problem) to calm inflation and make the dollar more attractive.

The (relatively) free-trading Asian currencies such as Philippine Peso and Thai Baht also have gone up 10%+ over the dollar this year.

I see another 10-20% upside in those currencies in the next 12-24 months, and as much as 40% upside for RMB (i.e. 5 RMB to 1 USD) in the next 5 years.

You think I am crazy? 5 years ago Canadian dollar was C$1.45 to US $1. Now it’s C$1.04 to US $1. The Canadian dollar rallied over 13% since March. This is nothing short of a crash by the dollar over the loonie.

I don’t see any impending crisis by the dollar’s breakdown, it will just bolster the case for gold, the sore lager in catching up to dollar’s fall.

Gold and Silver:

In the June update I wrote:

Gold is clinging on to $650, which acts as solid support. Gold has never dipped below 200 DMA ($635) for more than a month at a time and I don’t think it will go that low with May already behind us.

While I was wrong on the Euro, I was right on gold. With most major and Asian currencies having broken out against the dollar, I place very high probability of gold breaking out of $675 and then $700 by September.

In June I wrote:

XAU is still in consolidation mode. However the XAU:Gold ratio is ticking up and challenging 200 DMA. Gold equity continues to go up against gold this could signal the final bottom for both gold and gold equity.

If XAU survives and stays above 150 this week, we should see it challenge its 2006 high of 170 before September. XAU:Gold ratio also broke out. This indicates a bottom for both gold and XAU. If the ratio restores to its old high of 0.28, a $700 gold would mean a XAU of 200. A $850 gold price coupled with XAU:Gold ratio of 0.28 would mean a XAU of 240. XAU would be my first profit taking level and my target for 2007.

CRB and Oil:

Oil looks to test $80. I am very surprised at its strength, which is a partial reflection of the dollar’s weakness. I wouldn’t rule out a break out over $80 if the dollar breaks beneath 80.

Conclusion:

The dollar is now showing exceptional weakness and now sits on critical support of 80. The breakout of Euro caught us somewhat by surprise. Lingering subprime issue prevents the Fed from raising interest rates, and persistent trade deficit and deteriorating global image of the dollar means dollar could have further downside to go. This is bullish for gold. There was no crash by the XAU so far this summer as we rightly predicted. The XAU:Gold ratio clearly broke out to the upside, which means gold and XAU have both likely bottomed. XAU is now favored over gold from risk / reward perspective. We see July and August as last chance to buy XAU before its spectacular break out above 200 this year.


John Lee,
CFA john@maucapital.com
 
explod said:
Unfortunately the charts that go with the article did not transfer over in my copy and paste but if you hit the link you can read the article in its proper context . the 3:16PM is US time.
cheers explod

Dollar Broke Down, Gold's Breakout to $700+/oz Imminent

By John Lee
Jul 20 2007 3:16PM

www.goldmau.com

In June I wrote:

The dollar is likely to meander between 81 and 200 DMA of 84 for another month. Hiking of euro rates failed to propel Euro past 1.35. I still think USDX will break out to the upside. I have been bearish of the Euro at 1.35, I still don’t think Euro can take out 1.35. Euro at 163 to the yen is just not natural in my view.

I was wrong, plain and simple. The dollar is showing exceptional weakness and another 5-10% breakdown can not be ruled out.

The Euro has now broken through key resistance of 1.37, if 1.37 holds, this week, we can see the dollar index below 80. I believe people are betting against the dollar due to the inability for the Fed to raise rates (subprime problem) to calm inflation and make the dollar more attractive.

The (relatively) free-trading Asian currencies such as Philippine Peso and Thai Baht also have gone up 10%+ over the dollar this year.

I see another 10-20% upside in those currencies in the next 12-24 months, and as much as 40% upside for RMB (i.e. 5 RMB to 1 USD) in the next 5 years.

You think I am crazy? 5 years ago Canadian dollar was C$1.45 to US $1. Now it’s C$1.04 to US $1. The Canadian dollar rallied over 13% since March. This is nothing short of a crash by the dollar over the loonie.

I don’t see any impending crisis by the dollar’s breakdown, it will just bolster the case for gold, the sore lager in catching up to dollar’s fall.

Gold and Silver:

In the June update I wrote:

Gold is clinging on to $650, which acts as solid support. Gold has never dipped below 200 DMA ($635) for more than a month at a time and I don’t think it will go that low with May already behind us.

While I was wrong on the Euro, I was right on gold. With most major and Asian currencies having broken out against the dollar, I place very high probability of gold breaking out of $675 and then $700 by September.

In June I wrote:

XAU is still in consolidation mode. However the XAU:Gold ratio is ticking up and challenging 200 DMA. Gold equity continues to go up against gold this could signal the final bottom for both gold and gold equity.

If XAU survives and stays above 150 this week, we should see it challenge its 2006 high of 170 before September. XAU:Gold ratio also broke out. This indicates a bottom for both gold and XAU. If the ratio restores to its old high of 0.28, a $700 gold would mean a XAU of 200. A $850 gold price coupled with XAU:Gold ratio of 0.28 would mean a XAU of 240. XAU would be my first profit taking level and my target for 2007.

CRB and Oil:

Oil looks to test $80. I am very surprised at its strength, which is a partial reflection of the dollar’s weakness. I wouldn’t rule out a break out over $80 if the dollar breaks beneath 80.

Conclusion:

The dollar is now showing exceptional weakness and now sits on critical support of 80. The breakout of Euro caught us somewhat by surprise. Lingering subprime issue prevents the Fed from raising interest rates, and persistent trade deficit and deteriorating global image of the dollar means dollar could have further downside to go. This is bullish for gold. There was no crash by the XAU so far this summer as we rightly predicted. The XAU:Gold ratio clearly broke out to the upside, which means gold and XAU have both likely bottomed. XAU is now favored over gold from risk / reward perspective. We see July and August as last chance to buy XAU before its spectacular break out above 200 this year.


John Lee,
CFA john@maucapital.com
Click to expand...

Thanks John. $700 is an important resistance, if this resistance is broke, we may see new high for gold this year.
 
BREND said:
Thanks John. $700 is an important resistance, if this resistance is broke, we may see new high for gold this year.
Click to expand...
I'm still a gold bull. Compared to other resource sectors, there hasn't been as much hype with gold stocks. But this may soon change with the gold price doing well of late. I've recently increased my exposure to gold shares.
DYOR
 
Maybe in for a small pullback in gold based on a major support line for the $US being hit now. Expecting a pullback on the basis that the US Fed will be (or should be?) intervening in the market to purchase the currency to prevent a wholesale dump.
All things that are priced in $US could possibly come under pressure this week too eg commodities generally, especially copper?
If there isn't support here then gold could enter a fully fledged bull phase instead of a byproduct of the $US bear?
 

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The Fed has been full on trying to support the dollar now for a considerable period. All central banks have been supressing the price of gold for the same reason. They are fast running out of options, and the financial clout to do much more. The dollar may hold out on this support for a week or two but reports due out of Wall Street in the same period will be increasingly negative.

This support idea is hyperthetical as the Index has not been this low since inception about 1974 when gold backed currency ceased. Paper money is based on a promise, that promise is wearing thin because everyone is beginning to see that it buys less by the day. IMHO.

We shall see what pans out
 

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