Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Boyou]

This thread is by far the most engaging of all the (genaeral) topics here.IMO
And not just because I have invested in some Gold miners!
It seems to me the markets could be at the start of a crossroads...one where Fiat currencies have less clout than before., especiallythe once mighty USD.... is under seige and some sages are calling for a return to the Gold standard.(although that is not news Ha Ha)

I took a quote from the second post on this thread by Joe and it seems to be signal...back in June of 2004 when he posted it the USD was far more influential than it is now...

Quote:-
But what about the strength of the American economy? When the American economy booms, the price of gold tends to suffer as people turn away from the yellow metal and into other investment vehicles. Lately US growth has been strong and I'm beginning to think that this is what has been holding gold back lately.
Unquote:-

Perhaps the current speculation about POG says as much about the rising economies of India and China as it does about the US.In short the old days are gone..a new regime is coming

Thanks ,explod ... and others for all the food for thought...

Cheers

 

[>Apocalypto<]

In short the old days are gone..a new regime is coming

One problem with that is the new regimes are biult on the old ones being able to buy buy buy there products. Take away that demand from the west and will they still need so much of our minerals? What will happen to there growth if the oreders coming in were cut by 80% hmmm that could be interesting. not a disaster just a change in perspective.

Back to Gold yes this is looking good looking forward to seeing my order filled, But dot be surprised if we see a minor pull back soon.

 

[Boyou]

Very good points .I can imagine that a drastically reduced demand for Aus metals would be disastrous in the short term.

But ,then, revolutions are all about shaking things up a bit.

Fundamentally I don't care how quickly POG rises..or if it has a fallback in the short term.I really want to see the (possible ) "New World Order" get going.

The cards are being shuffled ,I think.Let them fall where thay may!

 

[explod]

Apart from arms the US manufacturing base within America itself, has been in a gradual decline for some years now (hence their rising unemployment). As in Australia, manufacturers have been moving off shore to Asia and in particular, IT to India and goods to China. However the expansion in China is so great that offshore input to their production is only a small part in their equation. As recently as last week it was reported that China's total growth has in fact increased, not cooled as many on Wall had been predicting.

On another front, Rio Tinto announced three weeks ago that they had considerably ramped up the supply of ion ore to China but the demand continues to outstrip their capacity make headway in meeting it. As indicated in posts above, what we a seeing is an enormous shift in the financial, manufacturing and, dare I say military might, between the super powers.

China, as the largest owner of US debt, has been a big player in trying to hold value in the dollar, but to temper its own markets and expansion to some degree will have to allow its currency to appreciate soon. When this begins to play out things could be pretty rough for awhile but gold (the Asian countries love it) will be a benefactor and the insurance policy of the savvy. IMHO

 

[BREND]

Gold is certainly a good product to trade now, but do watch out for nickel as well. Nickel price is down 40% year-to-date, and price is rebounding now.

 

[bean]

The Action on friday for Gold and US Gold Indexes was pretty good.
In the article I post a link for a couple of things. I had been mentioning how gold and US Gold Indexes have been following the US Markets.

Last week on both big downdays on the US Markets Gold and the Indexes finished positively. Which may be showing Gold and Gold Indexes breaking free of US markets. Friday XAU finished up HUI finished down but only just and it stayed above the 370 that was mentioned in the article.

We have both the POG and Gold shares being positive at the moment.

 

[bean]

Well it looks like US Gold Indexes have broken free from the US Markets
Today they finished up and Gold indexes finished just in the red.
So after many many months the gold indexes can now advance on there own

 

[Sean K]

Well it looks like US Gold Indexes have broken free from the US Markets
Today they finished up and Gold indexes finished just in the red.
So after many many months the gold indexes can now advance on there own

Were they ever really moving together bean?

How about a chart?

Here's how to:

How to post a chart

Would love to see the comparison!!

Cheers.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Were they ever really moving together bean?

How about a chart?

Here's how to:

How to post a chart

Would love to see the comparison!!

Cheers.

No they were not Kennas, no they were not.

Kennas how's your new pad coming along? I am still waiting so jump on a plane and come kick it with you lol

Now this is the minor reaction I was seeing on the charts. this will show how much bullish drive there is in this new short term trend on the speed of the buy back of the new lower price opportunity.

 

[bean]

I was asked this question several days. Please read this article (with charts) It is important the third paragraph. the whole article sould be read!!!!

Tonight may be another case...Is Gold breaking free??
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm

I did say third paragraph...For you the third chart...but I did say read the whole article...apart from the chart you may have to read

 

[Bush Trader]

Which do you think is the more important Psychological barrier for the punters

Gold breaking US$700

Or

Gold breaking EUR$520

I would be interested in your thoughts

If you were a central bank selling down gold at the US$690 mark is it as attractive now as it was last September. With the erosion of the US$ against all other currencies do we need to factor this into our new resistance calculations.

Cheers


BT

 

[theasxgorilla]

If you were a central bank selling down gold at the US$690 mark is it as attractive now as it was last September. With the erosion of the US$ against all other currencies do we need to factor this into our new resistance calculations.

Its an interesting question. Have you heard of Elliott Wave? Bob Prechter over at Elliott Wave International created the Stable Currency Benchmark (SCB) because he found that on US stock indices, during the '00-'02 bear market, impulse wave counts which he expected to be clear and easy to count were in fact not. This could have suggested in itself that they weren't actually impulse wave counts, but he was convinced otherwise.

The SCB sought to try and normalise moves on the stock indices for changes in valuation of the underlying currency. In this case the USD. So your question about how the USD relates to gold in terms of technical analysis is quite profound and I think very relavant. My own thoughts are that short term the distortions are not a factor. Psychology and actual round numbers like $700 are more significant. Longer term it is, IMO, a big factor and one which renders impossible long term wave counting.

ASX.G

 

[bean]

An interesting night ahead for Gold as US$ Index has just falling through 80

 

[Sean K]

I did say third paragraph...For you the third chart...but I did say read the whole article...apart from the chart you may have to read

Sorry bean but when you said the 3rd paragraph and I read it, and then the forth, and there was still nothing on index v POG, I assumed you had posted the wrong article.

I'm not sure why it's so hard for you to copy that chart and paste it in the thread. 1 minute later:

 

[Bush Trader]

Which do you think is the more important Psychological barrier for the punters

Gold breaking US$700

Or

Gold breaking EUR$520

I would be interested in your thoughts

If you were a central bank selling down gold at the US$690 mark is it as attractive now as it was last September. With the erosion of the US$ against all other currencies do we need to factor this into our new resistance calculations.

When are one of you Gold Bugs going to answer my question, this will be Gold's real test wont it?

PS Thanks for insights ASXGorilla

 

[Uncle Festivus]

When are one of you Gold Bugs going to answer my question, this will be Gold's real test wont it?

PS Thanks for insights ASXGorilla

I would think $US700 is the psychological & technical hurdle, as per Gorilla. Even with the Aus price of gold going down due to the $AUS, share prices have been rising as apparently most investors only track the US price for some reason, with only a cursury glance at the pog in their own currency.

I'm not convinced yet that this is the real deal; a bull trap if you like. The US Fed will fight to the death to resurrect the $US from this point so get ready for some currency action & central bank gold dumping the next few day's maybe?

 

[drillinto]

Gold bugs start to salivate

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=F60A8536-17A4-1130-F53F7D6B97FC10E1

 

[Bush Trader]

Gold Bugs pack up the Picnic, and buy $Euro?

Is the carnage Central Bank Selling or nervous Traders?

Any Comments?


Cheers


BT

PS Thanks for your thought Festivus - You may have been right!

 

[bean]

Gold Bugs pack up the Picnic, and buy $Euro?

Is the carnage Central Bank Selling or nervous Traders?

Any Comments?


Cheers


BT

PS Thanks for your thought Festivus - You may have been right!

Ted Butler mentioned a few days ago the setup in comittments of traders COT
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1185292923.php

I have noticed a few writers I read start to mentioned little bits about the US FED may actually be going to lower interest rates. Once I find a good article on it I will post it.

US markets need watching as I still think they will if they sell off cause the POG and gold shares to fall.

South African gold miners need watching in case the workers don't get wage rise they want and go on strike next month

 

[Uncle Festivus]

It's still a story about the $US, irrespective of the coincidences with share markets gyrations. We are at the line in the sand as far as the US Fed goes - see the charts. All it needs is for some entity to step up to the plate eg Goldman Sachs (or THE Fed), and the rest on technicals & get a bit of support and off it goes, wipeing out all those short stops along the way. So we have a short covering rally unfolding right now, with collateral damage to the gold price, and commodities in general.

Gold is showing some strength though after rebounding off the lows. XAU could possibly be oversold with stocks so keep an eye for some bargains soon?