Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[professor_frink]

I had raised my limit price to 674, and it was filled.

evening BREND,

that gold trade is looking a little sick. Any updates on how you are managing the trade?

 

[BREND]

evening BREND,

that gold trade is looking a little sick. Any updates on how you are managing the trade?

Cut loss at 676 for Oct contract, previously already made some money in Aug contract.

Holding on to Lead now.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Well Goldie's,

Am I surprised, no........

This trend is in a critical area now need to see some strength tail touched the 61% point its now sitting on 50% which is a heathly retrace but any deeper could put real pressure on this minor rally and cancel it out.

Bean,

Is this due to the sell off on the dow and co? : WHERE THE F#@K IS THE CRASH PROTECTION TEAM! GOD DAM IT, WHERE!

 

[Gar]

WHERE THE F#@K IS THE CRASH PROTECTION TEAM! GOD DAM IT, WHERE!

They're at the pub with their fingers in ears singing "la la la la la" :run:

I'll probably be joining them this afternoon

 

[bean]

It would appear Gold and Gold stocks are and will follow the market down
Us Gold Inexes have been down 5 days in a row.

Crash Protection team has not been needed for the DOW just yet. The Dow did hit a low of 13335 last night so it rallied 130 point from its low!!!
and the DOW has been 1down 1 up since last friday and its had 3 ugly days in that time.

So a dead cat bounce tonight????
Then splat Splat SPLAT?
or just SPLAT?

I have the DOW and Gold Indexexs sitting on or about support levels.
I sold today took profits (not much but a profit). Only because I do not like the position of the DOW. And I believe POG and Gold stocks will follow the market if it goes down
The DOW everyone is expecting a bouce (It is not over sold!!! That may be used as an excuse if it does bounce but it is not oversold!!!)

 

[BREND]

I did some selling on US stocks last night too. Just to have more cash on hand when the bargains come.

 

[Sean K]

Well it looks like US Gold Indexes have broken free from the US Markets
Today they finished up and Gold indexes finished just in the red.
So after many many months the gold indexes can now advance on there own

It would appear Gold and Gold stocks are and will follow the market down.....And I believe POG and Gold stocks will follow the market if it goes down

 

[bean]

Words are just like charts read into them what you wish.
one could show a chart of the DOW till last friday and most would have said its O/K.
Yes I though Gold maybe breaking free one two or three days does not a change make. Especially when market corrects as it stars to. Unfortuanatly it did not. However I always said that no matter what POG and gold stocks would follow the market when it was going to correct.
Now the question is to pick the time when POG and the gold indexes will break from the market.
If for example the Gold Indexes do have a 30% correction to occur (a time frame...depends on the US markets ) Then one would say if Gold Indexes are still following them then does that make the DOW 10000 give or take before Gold breaks free????
I am a Gold Bull but a market Bear!!! Does that confuse you.
I have a sell on the market but Gold Indexes are "Just" they are at support I would be long if it were not for the general US market.

So after many many months the gold indexes can now advance on there own

I do hope to be able to use that SOON. and it stands true

Kennas that chart you posted for me thanks, but it does show what I have been saying. I was not to sure about copyright laws thats why I did not post it. But did you read the whole article if you did you may have been out of gold stocks a few days ago.

 

[bean]

 

[bean]

View attachment 11835

His last sentance says it all one day does not a trend make

 

[Sean K]

His last sentance says it all one day does not a trend make

Whooohooo! A chart! Good work bean!!

Yes, I absolutely agree, one day does not, so we need to be careful when announcing a new trend has occurred after one or two trading days.

One odd thing with that graph is that the author calls it the Wilshire 5000, then mentions the S&P500, and then uses the Mid Cap 400 as his chart...

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I think some people are confusing trends & fundamentals of gold with trends & fundamentals of gold stocks, resulting in some confusion. The 2 should be studied in isolation but always with an overall view.

The primary driver for gold is the $US (or a high correlation at least). The primary driver for gold stocks is the gold price and general market sentiment. At the moment the $US is at the beginning of a flight to safety breakout & short squeeze, ironically due to the obvious problems with a credit crunch, from problems from the housing bust, from problems from the lowering of interest rates from the dotcom bust. So the flight to the $US is because of too much $US???

Once it is realised the dog is chasing it's own tail, there could be the final sell-off in the $US and then a flight to the ultimate store of safety. Is it safe, yet?

 

[explod]

I have put up a post on "GOLD stocks gathering momentum" which being large I refer you to rather than repeat.

As with stocks the gold price will also fall during this period as the big players search for liquidity to meet margin calls. The crash panning out now my not be the big part of the drop but it is now well underway and the smart money now knows that thier activities of the last few years have not been very smart.

cheers explod

 

[bean]

I think some people are confusing trends & fundamentals of gold with trends & fundamentals of gold stocks, resulting in some confusion. The 2 should be studied in isolation but always with an overall view.

The primary driver for gold is the $US (or a high correlation at least). The primary driver for gold stocks is the gold price and general market sentiment. At the moment the $US is at the beginning of a flight to safety breakout & short squeeze, ironically due to the obvious problems with a credit crunch, from problems from the housing bust, from problems from the lowering of interest rates from the dotcom bust. So the flight to the $US is because of too much $US???

Once it is realised the dog is chasing it's own tail, there could be the final sell-off in the $US and then a flight to the ultimate store of safety. Is it safe, yet?

I agree however I find that the true advances are when POG and US Gold indexes move as one (both confirm the advance) on some occassions one may lead the other...the gold indicies could even lead gold higher.
I also find that if one goes by itself and the other does not confirm the move then it is more liable to break down.

For monday I believe the Gold Indicies will be down and more than likely the POG as the general markets themselves will be under pressure.
However at some stage on monday the Crash protection team may be hard at work if the markets do fall. Could the US markets have a bounce late afternoon? I have them falling and a CRASH possibility tuesday (If monday is indeed down) because panic will set in.

The action of the US markets monday is of great importantace
It is not on gold but the DOW
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1185726325.php

 

[Magdoran]

I agree however I find that the true advances are when POG and US Gold indexes move as one (both confirm the advance) on some occassions one may lead the other...the gold indicies could even lead gold higher.
I also find that if one goes by itself and the other does not confirm the move then it is more liable to break down.

For monday I believe the Gold Indicies will be down and more than likely the POG as the general markets themselves will be under pressure.
However at some stage on monday the Crash protection team may be hard at work if the markets do fall. Could the US markets have a bounce late afternoon? I have them falling and a CRASH possibility tuesday (If monday is indeed down) because panic will set in.

The action of the US markets monday is of great importantace
It is not on gold but the DOW
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1185726325.php

Bean,

Remember my post on the S&P 500? Got the price wrong by one increment, how did you like the time projection?

S&P 500 attached.

I take it that Gold must now fall in 2-4 weeks time to $540. Is this correct?

The $540 low in Gold is dependent on when the markets tank.
Will have more idea on the timing then. within 2-4weeks of falling.

Let's see you project an exact date into the future like me. Come on, you keep posting vague comments. Just give one date and one price please rather than an imprecise "it will fall some time" comment. On what day exactly will gold hit $540 as previously forecast?

No obfuscation, just one date.



Regards


Magdoran

 

[wavepicker]

I firmly beleive that precious metals remains in a secular uptrend. But have refrained from taking long term positions just yet because the psychological upswing from last year is not over. As such I expect lower OR at least net sideways pattern for a while yet yet. Just looking at the pattern of the last year, as expected it has been a corrective struggling affair. It does not LOOK completed yet.

Where to now?? In my opinion the bulls have to be all washed out first before the next upward phase begins. If the equity markets get smashed I think the precious metals will fall too INITIALLY, but be the first ones out of the decline in the years ahead.

This happened in the 1970's, back then Gold shot up from $50 to $200 and spent 2 years correcting back to $100. This correction was a springboard to a massive upward move in the subsequent years.

So for now I am on the sidelines with regard to Gold

Cheers

 

[Joules MM1]

I firmly beleive that precious metals remains in a secular uptrend. But have refrained from taking long term positions just yet because the psychological upswing from last year is not over. As such I expect lower OR at least net sideways pattern for a while yet yet. Just looking at the pattern of the last year, as expected it has been a corrective struggling affair. It does not LOOK completed yet.

Where to now?? In my opinion the bulls have to be all washed out first before the next upward phase begins. If the equity markets get smashed I think the precious metals will fall too INITIALLY, but be the first ones out of the decline in the years ahead.

This happened in the 1970's, back then Gold shot up from $50 to $200 and spent 2 years correcting back to $100. This correction was a springboard to a massive upward move in the subsequent years.

So for now I am on the sidelines with regard to Gold

Cheers

Is that the technical release jump when the Nixon decree affected the whole structure of public pricing and then the market also had to find its own equillibrium? IS that likely to occur again soon?

 

[wavepicker]

Is that the technical release jump when the Nixon decree affected the whole structure of public pricing and then the market also had to find its own equillibrium? IS that likely to occur again soon?

I hear what you are saying, however the various phases/structure of the advance since 1999 appears similar to that of the 1970's.

Besides precious metals have done bugger all for over the last 12 months and don't look they will in the short term do they???

 

[Joules MM1]

I hear what you are saying, however the various phases/structure of the advance since 1999 appears similar to that of the 1970's.

Besides precious metals have done bugger all for over the last 12 months and don't look they will in the short term do they???

actually, my question was a tad facetious given the amount of peers who see gold as the real money that the government(s) are going to want to control........especially given the theoretical idea that fewer and fewer people trust fiat currencies........

in the liquidity wash, what has attracted liquidity out of gold and metals into stocks? and of course there's the old nugget of inflation when we have many more signs of deflation..........mmmmmmm.........

according to the technicalindicators.com site the industrey hedgers are 63% short (the "a-ha" almost 61.8% number.........yeah, I know.......) while only 23% long.........I guess they know something about protection and the large speculators 38% long and only 8% short ........of course, this is about interpretation of those positions which is not to be read the same as the emini positions ...........

I think the main challenge is whether we are now into a credit-debt crunch, in which case, if so, then the market is not yet in need of gold protection until the other curve is ended...........

 

[wavepicker]

actually, my question was a tad facetious given the amount of peers who see gold as the real money that the government(s) are going to want to control........especially given the theoretical idea that fewer and fewer people trust fiat currencies........

in the liquidity wash, what has attracted liquidity out of gold and metals into stocks? and of course there's the old nugget of inflation when we have many more signs of deflation..........mmmmmmm.........

according to the technicalindicators.com site the industrey hedgers are 63% short (the "a-ha" almost 61.8% number.........yeah, I know.......) while only 23% long.........I guess they know something about protection and the large speculators 38% long and only 8% short ........of course, this is about interpretation of those positions which is not to be read the same as the emini positions ...........

I think the main challenge is whether we are now into a credit-debt crunch, in which case, if so, then the market is not yet in need of gold protection until the other curve is ended...........

Dunno what to make of COT data these days, especially in this case, a bit of a coin toss really.
Looking at the US Dollar Index chart there is a strong indication that the US Dollar is going to strengthen against a number of World currencies. I suspect the Dollar is going to do rather well in the short term. That is not to say that it will be a reversal, I am thinking that might be a good 12 months away yet. But Gold will be probably be still caught in a range at the very least if this is in fact the case.


I see a possibility of a sell off in Bonds, thus interest rates will be moving higher and this in turn might explain the dollar strength if it in fact does continue to show strength at this juncture.


Cheers