Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Sean K said:

My Kangaroos are feeling anxious. Parabolic moves end up with parabolic corrections. Be prepared for some significant profit taking - at some point. In the meantime, my Kangaroos are anxious.

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Yeah the Aus$ is falling, if Gold and the Aus$ reverse at the same time then you will get your parabolic reversal. That's why I like to take a long position in Aus$ when it's rising to act as a hedge.

DaveTrade said:

Yeah the Aus$ is falling, if Gold and the Aus$ reverse at the same time then you will get your parabolic reversal. That's why I like to take a long position in Aus$ when it's rising to act as a hedge.

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Any easy way to go long AUD?
I buy USD etf to go short AUD but if not playing Forex, how do you do it?
..I might convert my USD accounts to AUD of course

qldfrog said:

Any easy way to go long AUD?
I buy USD etf to go short AUD but if not playing Forex, how do you do it?
..I might convert my USD accounts to AUD of course

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@qldfrog I just buy options for FXA on NYSE.

DaveTrade said:

@qldfrog I just buy options for FXA on NYSE.

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Thanks...yes I stupidly thought ASX ..

Gunna be a bright, bright, sunshiney day ...
Mick

its been noted a few times recently, that the price setting scams that western financial orgs have are in danger of being overwhelmed.
It may be that the time has arrived.
The bullion futres markets, the LBMA and the US SEC asre being bypassed by a plethora of much bigger players with real precious metals rather than the per trash favoured by the big financial ibstitutions.
They won't give up without a fight, but I suspect there are just too many players outside the cartel who will not be managed.
On every other occasion, a pull back in PM's has been organised to restore the cartel profits.
There may still be one, but I am not sure it will because of the paper traders playing games.
Mick

Hmmmmmm gold is very good

Just throwing this out there, but could this huge rush into precious metals be a move by smart money to protect themselves against market downside? This market is starting to feel a lot like mid-2007 with a lot of complacency from participants. Valuations are being disregarded. Could a market top be imminent? Is the smart money selling into this rally?

greggles said:

Just throwing this out there, but could this huge rush into precious metals be a move by smart money to protect themselves against market downside? This market is starting to feel a lot like mid-2007 with a lot of complacency from participants. Valuations are being disregarded. Could a market top be imminent? Is the smart money selling into this rally?

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I think CB buying is the catalyst, retail is just following as well as technical buying on the breakout. Some FOMO. Why are CBs buying? @ducati916 has been describing this quite well over the past while.

greggles said:

Just throwing this out there, but could this huge rush into precious metals be a move by smart money to protect themselves against market downside? This market is starting to feel a lot like mid-2007 with a lot of complacency from participants. Valuations are being disregarded. Could a market top be imminent? Is the smart money selling into this rally?

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Your scenario is quite possible as much of the large buys and sells in Gold are opaque which is why many small Gold mavens such as myself tend to swirl about for indicators of large buys and sells of the metal. Often times these large buys and sells do not move the price very much until they become public knowledge.

A common theory behind the recent bullish move is down to the BRICS, that association of countries below the USA who are exceedingly jealous of the position of the $USD as the world's Reserve Currency. Such that quotes and settlement of goods as diverse as sugar, oil, beans, lead and Gold need settling in $USD.

The latest information is that the BRICS which include India and Russia seek to have a currency for settlement that is fixed to the price of Gold. Good luck with that, but nevertheless the USA is spooked by this and may also be increasing their stores of Gold to head this off, "at the pass". It is all quite Wild West stuff and a google search may lead you to articles from journals such as the Economist and Axios on it.

As long as the POG keeps hitting new highs I really don't care what the BRICS get up to.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

Your scenario is quite possible as much of the large buys and sells in Gold are opaque which is why many small Gold mavens such as myself tend to swirl about for indicators of large buys and sells of the metal. Often times these large buys and sells do not move the price very much until they become public knowledge.

A common theory behind the recent bullish move is down to the BRICS, that association of countries below the USA who are exceedingly jealous of the position of the $USD as the world's Reserve Currency. Such that quotes and settlement of goods as diverse as sugar, oil, beans, lead and Gold need settling in $USD.

The latest information is that the BRICS which include India and Russia seek to have a currency for settlement that is fixed to the price of Gold. Good luck with that, but nevertheless the USA is spooked by this and may also be increasing their stores of Gold to head this off, "at the pass". It is all quite Wild West stuff and a google search may lead you to articles from journals such as the Economist and Axios on it.

As long as the POG keeps hitting new highs I really don't care what the BRICS get up to.

gg

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The price of Gold is at an all time high in AUD, but amazingly, some of the gold stocks have gone down today.
Companies that actually mine gold and thus will take advantage of these high prices - ALK, PDI, TCG, MKR all down.
ODY , which does not even produce any gold, is up.
Given the price rises we have had in gold, I fully expected some of my long term sells to be hit.
So far , WAF is the only one that had a sell taken up
Makes you wonder what the hell is going on.
Mick

mullokintyre said:

The price of Gold is at an all time high in AUD, but amazingly, some of the gold stocks have gone down today.
Companies that actually mine gold and thus will take advantage of these high prices - ALK, PDI, TCG, MKR all down.
ODY , which does not even produce any gold, is up.
Given the price rises we have had in gold, I fully expected some of my long term sells to be hit.
So far , WAF is the only one that had a sell taken up
Makes you wonder what the hell is going on.
Mick

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The stock market is wild and crazy place. Up is down, left is right, bad news is good. It's like a flock of swarming tree swallows.

mullokintyre said:

The price of Gold is at an all time high in AUD, but amazingly, some of the gold stocks have gone down today.
Companies that actually mine gold and thus will take advantage of these high prices - ALK, PDI, TCG, MKR all down.
ODY , which does not even produce any gold, is up.
Given the price rises we have had in gold, I fully expected some of my long term sells to be hit.
So far , WAF is the only one that had a sell taken up
Makes you wonder what the hell is going on.
Mick

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Mick I think that one factor affecting this is the fluctuation in the Aus$-US$ exchange rate, last night the Aus$ went up the night before it was down.

greggles said:

Just throwing this out there, but could this huge rush into precious metals be a move by smart money to protect themselves against market downside? This market is starting to feel a lot like mid-2007 with a lot of complacency from participants. Valuations are being disregarded. Could a market top be imminent? Is the smart money selling into this rally?

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However, because the rally in the oil price this time around is being driven by fears of supply shocks and the risk of escalating war in the Middle East, both commodities are rising in tandem.

That is “a dynamic that is often a negative omen for riskier assets,” Mr Rodda said.

Indeed, the three major US stock benchmarks, which are all trading at or near record highs, fell around 1 per cent overnight, while bitcoin slumped 7.5 per cent, extending the sell-off from its peak of $US73,798 to around 11 per cent.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries hit a four-month high in the US, while Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 sank 1.3 per cent on Wednesday.

The rally in commodities also adds to concerns that global inflation will be stickier than expected which could force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Better-than-estimated US data on job openings and factory goods orders overnight added to doubt about the pace of monetary easing in the world’s largest economy, with traders now projecting fewer rate cuts this year than the Federal Reserve.

While bond markets are still fully priced for the Fed to start cutting rates in July, it projects just 70 basis points worth of cuts this year, down from 85 basis points last month.

In Australia, markets are fully priced for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank in November, but ascribe just 32 basis points worth of easing in 2024, down from 43 basis points last week.

Sean K said:

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However, because the rally in the oil price this time around is being driven by fears of supply shocks and the risk of escalating war in the Middle East, both commodities are rising in tandem.

That is “a dynamic that is often a negative omen for riskier assets,” Mr Rodda said.

Indeed, the three major US stock benchmarks, which are all trading at or near record highs, fell around 1 per cent overnight, while bitcoin slumped 7.5 per cent, extending the sell-off from its peak of $US73,798 to around 11 per cent.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries hit a four-month high in the US, while Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 sank 1.3 per cent on Wednesday.

The rally in commodities also adds to concerns that global inflation will be stickier than expected which could force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Better-than-estimated US data on job openings and factory goods orders overnight added to doubt about the pace of monetary easing in the world’s largest economy, with traders now projecting fewer rate cuts this year than the Federal Reserve.

While bond markets are still fully priced for the Fed to start cutting rates in July, it projects just 70 basis points worth of cuts this year, down from 85 basis points last month.

In Australia, markets are fully priced for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank in November, but ascribe just 32 basis points worth of easing in 2024, down from 43 basis points last week.

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Indeed @Sean K , the falling price of Bitcoin will be a marker for a correction, small or large.

I'll be interested to see new entrants to buying Gold. Every old punter has been throwing money at BC. There will be little warning of when to get out of BC. At least one can purchase a woot with Gold or even find a bride if that is one's appetite for risk.

gg

Good evening,
Nice work gold.

Gold 2023 on the international stage!!

World gold demand decreased by 5.3% year-on-year to 4,440 tonnes in 2023, easing from a 10-year high in 2022. This fall was largely driven by a 15% year-on-year decline in investment demand, with central bank demand and technology consumption also lower.

Official sector (central banks and other government financial institutions) buying declined by 4.1% year-on-year to 1037 tonnes in 2023. Despite the fall, this still amounted to the second-highest annual total in the World Gold Council’s (WGC) records. Official sector demand has been strong since mid-2022, with purchases dominated by emerging market central banks eager to lift gold reserves.

According to World Gold Council (WGC) data for declared purchases, China was the largest buyer, adding a reported 225 tonnes (around 10%) to its gold reserves in 2023. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) purchased 130 tonnes, raising its gold reserves by 57% year-on-year. The President of the NBP said the central bank intends to continue building its gold reserves. Other notable purchases were reported by Singapore and various emerging market central banks including India, Libya and Iraq.

Sales by central banks during the year were comparatively small, with Kazakhstan selling 47 tonnes from its reserves from January-November and Uzbekistan reporting 25 tonnes sold for the year.

Gold purchases by non-government buyers in 2023 were lower year-on year, with slight growth in jewellery demand offset by weaker investment demand — which fell to a 10-year low. Overall, 244 tonnes of gold flowed out of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2023, following 110 tonnes of outflows in 2022. (ETF outflows are counted as reducing gold demand, while inflows are counted as additional.) Demand for gold ETFs was weak in Western markets (particularly Europe) due to rising bond yields and stronger currencies.

Retail investment in gold bars and coins declined by 3% year-on-year in 2023. Year-on-year declines were partly driven by weaker demand in the West and by base effects — following strong demand from the Middle East in 2022. Failing to offset these declines, bar and coin investment demand was strong in the larger markets of China (up by 28% year-on-year) and India (up by 7%), where Rupee depreciation supported record domestic prices. Demand in China was strong due to base effects — following a COVID-disrupted 2022 — as well as economic uncertainty and weak performance from other asset classes (such as property and shares).

Gold jewellery demand rose marginally year-on-year in 2023, despite record domestic prices in key consumer markets. Jewellery consumption in China rose by 10% year-on-year to 630 tonnes, supported by elevated consumer saving intentions and base effects (given a weak December quarter 2022). Indian jewellery consumption fell by 6% year-on-year in 2023 as consumers reacted to record high domestic prices. According to the WGC, Chinese and Indian consumers responded to elevated prices by purchasing jewellery with lower average weight or gold content.

Demand for gold in technological applications declined by 3.5% year-onyear to 298 tonnes in 2023: a record low in the WGC’s data series. Weak demand for consumer electronics translated to lower demand for gold in electronics such as in light-emitting diodes (LEDs), memory chips and printed circuit boards.
Resources and Energy Quarterly | March 2024

World gold supply increased by 3.1% year-on-year to about 4,900 tonnes in 2023, driven by both higher mine production and increased recycling. Global mine production reached 3,644 tonnes in 2023, the second-highest total on record. Production was on track to exceed the 2018 record (of 3,656 tonnes) if major disruptions to several operations had not occurred in the December quarter 2023. Full year production growth was led by increases in South Africa, Russia and Brazil.

Production in China — the world’s largest gold producing nation — rose marginally year-on-year to 375 tonnes in 2023. Production in Russia — the second largest producer — rose by 2% year-on-year to 332 tonnes, led by increased high-grade ore output from the large Olimpiada mine.
Resources and Energy Quarterly | March 2024

Production in the United States fell by an estimated 3% year-on-year to about 168 tonnes in 2023. The decrease was due to lower output from major operations in Nevada (such as Bald Mountain and Carlin), as well as lower production from the Fort Knox mine in Alaska.
1 Arslanalp, S, Eichengreen, B, Simpson-Bell, C 2023, Gold as International Reserves:
A Barbarous Relic No More?, IMF WP/23/14, Washington DC, USA.

EDIT: fix a spelling error

I have been doing some superficial research into the precious metals price spike in 2011. What I find especially interesting is the fact that the 2011 price spike happened in the absence of high inflation, high interest rates and the level of currency debasement back then was less than half of what is now.

Looking back, the reasons for the 2011 price spike now look tame by comparison. I found this old New York Times news article from April 2011: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/21/business/global/21gold.html

The price of gold rose above $1,500 an ounce on Wednesday for the first time, pushed higher by investor concerns about global inflation, government debt and turmoil in the Arab world.

The prices of other precious metals, like silver and platinum, have also surged recently on what analysts call a flight to quality, when uncertainty about the economic and political outlook sends investors into assets that are perceived to be safest.

“We’re seeing a perfect storm for gold and silver prices,” said Robin Bhar, a senior metals analyst in London for the French bank Crédit Agricole.

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Huh? The reasons I have bolded above, which are also relevant today, are all much more serious and in a more precarious state in 2024 than they were back in 2011. It all seems a little bizarre to me and is a real insight into how much the market has changed in less than 15 years.

Good morning
wow!!

rcw1 said:

Good morning
wow!!

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Based on the macd, time to sell?

qldfrog said:

Based on the macd, time to sell?

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Must be some consolidation soon, it's looking unhealthy. I daresay some traders will be putting their short pants on shortly. Or, maybe everyone's pants are off and they're just going to ride the wave until it topples over.