Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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peter2 said:
Selecting the gold producers that will more likely to go higher in this gold rally is more art than science (luck?). I initially thought that the low cost high margin producers would be the ones to buy. Heard recently, Rick Rule mentioned that the gold miners that would profit more from this gold rally would be the low margin miners. This is likely because the low margin producers will see larger percentage increases in their margins when compared to the high margin producers.

The easiest method to make sure we're holding some of the faster rallying stocks is to buy lots of different gold miners. ;)
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ETFs..often if not always better than own mix of winners/loosers
 
peter2 said:
the low margin producers will see larger percentage increases in their margins when compared to the high margin producers.
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I own quite a few BCN (Beacon), who kind of fit the parameters of your thoughts Pete? With that in mind, I hope your analysis is correct! :bookworm:
 
GLD has closed at 215.14 on Friday and as you can see on the chart, it's a long way down to the 50sma which is down around 195. It's climbed so fast that it's now flying in very thin air, the amazing thing for me is that I can't see any sign of it stopping yet. I know that a pullback is coming but this may be a situation where I rely on my trailing stop.
1712491484511.png
 
DaveTrade said:
GLD has closed at 215.14 on Friday and as you can see on the chart, it's a long way down to the 50sma which is down around 195. It's climbed so fast that it's now flying in very thin air, the amazing thing for me is that I can't see any sign of it stopping yet. I know that a pullback is coming but this may be a situation where I rely on my trailing stop.
View attachment 174252
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Depends on short term or longer term trading / investing plans. We dived into PMs months and years ago knowing this would happen. Anyone following our longer term outlook on gold needs to make a decision. To sell at a significant profit or take risk.
 
Sean K said:
Depends on short term or longer term trading / investing plans. We dived into PMs months and years ago knowing this would happen. Anyone following our longer term outlook on gold needs to make a decision. To sell at a significant profit or take risk.
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The evidence, much of which has been presented by members of this forum, suggests that gold should go much higher but I like to ride the individual waves. Maybe it's in my nature as I am a surfer.
 
Qatar moving to sell energy for CNY and Gold: https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/01/17/chinese-yuan-gains-currency-in-the-gulf-states/

Buying gold:

Screen Shot 2024-04-08 at 5.22.44 AM.png

The oil states want a higher gold price because it means that inflation can reprice in gold rather than energy. When the cost of energy gets too high, people start to starve, industry breaks down, etc.

The POG can never get too high as gold (other than jewellery) is not used for anything, therefore causes no issues (other than to the USD). Inflation can leak into gold harmlessly.

As more and more countries buy energy in their own currency (bypassing USD) so their own currencies inflate (lose value) but they can print more to buy gold also, which drives the POG higher. While energy is required, POG will move higher as it is absorbing the inflationary pressures.

Yellen meanwhile has an $800B warchest to fight liquidity issues with: the TGA.

Apparently, there were questions as to the legality of using this to supply liquidity:

Screen Shot 2024-04-08 at 5.37.05 AM.png

So this is a definite BTD in stocks. That liquidity will calm the UST market at least for a short period, so Thunderbirds are go!

Meanwhile Yellen is off to China to try and talk the USD lower and the CNY higher.

But most importantly for gold, Yellen is now aware (thinking) that the US need to settle trade deficits in gold, rather than UST: Meanwhile, the explosion higher is yet to come: the USD repricing against gold. The US frantically need a weaker USD. Historically it has been revalued against gold. It will be again.

Screen Shot 2024-04-08 at 5.47.18 AM.png




No more thank-you notes. Gold. Do as China and others are doing. Print USD buy gold. But to start the ball rolling, revalue the USD as against your (alleged) 8000 tons or tonnes, either way it's a lot.

Now as markets start to appreciate what's on the cards, what happens to POG? Probably no significant pullbacks. There could be some really big days +$500/day moves. The big one will be the revaluation, which will happen at the w/e on a Sunday night, where there is no chance to get into gold until it's too late.

jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
Now as markets start to appreciate what's on the cards, what happens to POG? Probably no significant pullbacks. There could be some really big days +$500/day moves. The big one will be the revaluation, which will happen at the w/e on a Sunday night, where there is no chance to get into gold until it's too late.

jog on
duc
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:oops: I'm holding you to $500 day moves ducati. Next Sunday night, thanks. :D
 
Many do not have the patience to follow Gold long term. As a result they are missing out on large profits. It is tempting to take profits in Gold after 10% or 15% moves in the precious metal.

This chart is important as many such as I who have been accumulating Gold since the late 1970's may be tempted to take early profits expecting a retrace during which to "buy back in". This may be unwise. A 5 year chart should be the minimum time frame in which to assess exit points.

1712535209798.png


The chart enclosed shows the five years from just a few moments ago. There was a $700 move in 2018 to early 2021. Taking the recent low at $1800 I would expect a minimum of $2500 to be easily achievable. Longer term charts are much more generous. Patience rewards.

Given the geopolitical situation this may be a very conservative expectation. Selling Gold should only occur for need events such as taking another wife ( or convincing the present one to stay as appropriate ), or a new number restricted Mont Blanc pen.

gg
 
Good morning
Perhaps also rely upon one's own knowledge and experience ...

or maybe not...

Have a very good day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
rcw1 said:
Perhaps also rely upon one's own knowledge and experience ...
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This is one of the times for the praxis of a few axioms that I have painstakingly fashioned from gruelling experience. Sorry to quote myself:

1. “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

2. “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”

3. “Nobody can catch can catch all the fluctuations

4. "Buy right, sit tight"
 
finicky said:
This is one of the times for the praxis of a few axioms that I have painstakingly fashioned from gruelling experience. Sorry to quote myself:

1. “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

2. “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”

3. “Nobody can catch can catch all the fluctuations

4. "Buy right, sit tight"
Click to expand...
Hello finicky
Nice work.

5. Gold is money. Everything else is credit (J P Morgan 1912)

ha ha ha ha ha ha haha

Have a very nice evening.

Kind regards
rcw1
 

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