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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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May I add that I have never heard of anyone ,apart from Bailxtrader, use the expression "Long Neck Chart" when discussing anything remotely related to the ASX or Share Trading in general...

 
Sean K said:
Would you put the range of the sideways move about here for the BO target?

View attachment 172144
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I'll start with a more conservative picture of targets, but I'd like to say that when I put lines on a chart I look at them as guide lines, so as when the market trades it will show me it's true character by it's movement in relation to these lines. Your measurement is where a strong market should reach and my chart below will help assess how it's handling the trip.
 
Gold holding up well this morning but the silver price is getting hammered following a good first 50 minutes of trading. Silver very volatile but gold nice and stable. An increasing divergence in price recently between the two precious metals.
 
After spending three and a half months consolidating in the $1975-$2075, Gold finally broke out to set a new weekly closing high last week. As the chart above shows, that momentum has carried over into this week, with the yellow metal reaching as high as $2,140 intraday. Technically speaking, the momentum remains clearly at the back of the bulls, though with prices well into overbought territory, a near-term dip back toward previous-resistance-turned-support at $2075 cannot be ruled out. As long as the precious metal remains above that level though, the path of least resistance will remain to the topside.

 
Here's a difference of opinions as towards whats Gold doing....
I’ll admit to being caught by surprise with the rally on gold. Yes, gold prices surged on weak ISM manufacturing data – but to extend that rally and print another record high or similar magnitude raises questions as to whether something else is at play. I’ll let others answer that question after the fact.

For now what I see is a strong rally into record highs ahead of a busy week of economic events. As mentioned above, ISM manufacturing could knock some wind out of gold’s rally should it come in strong again, as could any hawkish comments from Jerome Powell’s testimony to the House Committee on Wednesday and Thursday, or strong data from Friday’s NFP report.

Ultimately the sceptic in me doubts gold can maintain its current trajectory for the week, which is why I simply including implied volatility bands to show expectations of volatility from options traders over the daily, weekly and 1-month timeframe.

US dollar holds support, gold reaches new ATH ahead of key ISM report

Gold surged to a fresh ATH high for a second day, but if the ISM services report knocks out some strong numbers then gold may struggle to extend its lead.
www.cityindex.com
 
Sean K said:
What we should all be hoping for is an orderly consolidation around here, or a slight test of support, before going on. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
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But but but but... there would be no fun in that
Gold is good... oh the joy of it all ...

Kind regards
rcw1
 
fwiw, Northstar on twitter is looking for a monthly close above, what looks like from the chart, 1885 CHF (Swiss Francs) as a very bullish signal. Currently playing around that level @1890 bid last I looked. Stress its a monthly close he's wanting.

 
Sean K said:
What we should all be hoping for is an orderly consolidation around here, or a slight test of support, before going on. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

View attachment 172233
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Mr Dave,

The 'consolidation' has been and gone.



Usually the US would fight the POG and POS, however, this time the US needs a lower USD. The usual way to fight POG is to short paper gold and buy USD.

Certainly China's physical buying has prevented prior attacks from doing any real technical damage.

COT data always a bit behind, but:



No buying pressure in USD
Reduced selling in Gold

With updated COT data, it might be possible to work out where the paper gold pressure is coming from.

Fundamentally, Yuan for oil is driving POG higher. This will not abate. China does not want the POO to go so high as to blow-up the US. More charts + explanation in yesterday's post in the DDD thread.

jog on
duc
 
Thanks duc @ducati916 .

Supply is trickling out from Central banks looking to cash or oil up.

Demand is pent up and will vie with BTC. This is my first experience of a bull run in Gold with BTC in the background gobbling up spare unwise cash.

Ramadan beckons for the Mohammadean cousins with the sale of Gold usually up then, and the Spring Festival for the Chinese cousins has already begun.

Paper has its own rules.

All in all a smooth market. And then there is fearful Gold, not that one should profit from another's existential crisis, and the cousins in Israel, Gaza and the Middle East, Persia and Pakistan, Russia and Ukraine, all looking for safety.

$USD 3000 is easily attainable.

gg
 
Should be good material for a sledge in the future. I don't subscribe so just the lead in:

Goodbye gold​


David Llewellyn-Smith
Thursday, 7 March 2024

I am a gold trader from way back. It is the macro metal, so I always found it relatively easy to time the market, but I no longer trust it.
The reason is BTC.
 
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