Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

Have we started a new phase of gold pricing above $2030 ish, the old weekly high? This looks like it will be three weeks above. JPM might have gone long. Not counting my kangaroos on that huge C&H that's been discussed for some time, but maybe.

View attachment 167969

This weekly close is holding, for now. Still not counting my kangaroos, but with the Houthis (Iran) being struck it seems inevitable that the ME conflict is going to widen further unless common sense prevails. Add in China about to go berserk over Formosa democratic elections and there's plenty of kindling to cause a flight to safety haven assets. If, and only if, this higher level remains a support then we're potentially looking at a break out from the giant C&H prophesied many moons ago. Or, this TA stuff is BS.

 

[DaveTrade]

@Sean K and others, any TA on a Gold chart priced in any other currency than us$ is not valid because the gold market is priced in us$. A gold chart in aus$ is a chart of the combination of Gold market and the Aus$-Us$ FX market. Such a chart may be useful to view but TA is not valid on it.

Anyway looking at the Gold market and the latest run up to the resistance zone, it can be seen that on this latest run the market has hit resistance twice and backed off, but it hasn't backed off any substantial amount on either attempt so far. The open question here is 'will it be third time lucky or will it drop from here?'.


The daily chart gives a closer look and so far the market is holding up well, this is encouraging, but upward momentum is waning so for me (and many others I know) it's currently a waiting game. The fundamental picture seems solid supported by world events such as those mentioned in Sean's previous post so we just have to wait for the market to tell us when it's ready to break through and go for a run.

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K and others, any TA on a Gold chart priced in any other currency than us$ is not valid because the gold market is priced in us$. A gold chart in aus$ is a chart of the combination of Gold market and the Aus$-Us$ FX market. Such a chart may be useful to view but TA is not valid on it.

Agree Dave. That's why I don't post AUD charts in here.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Friends, Roamers, Golders and Countrymen,

Lend me your ears.

I have let my gold hoard lie safely and now wonder whether to add. To my shame I have not followed nor being following the march of gold as it plies new territory beyond USD$2000. @Sean K and @DaveTrade 's charts give me considerable hope that a large breakout up beyond USD$2100 is imminent.

Am I a fool? Perhaps I should rephrase that, am I being foolish? And what of gold stocks, the large and small. Are they undervalued viz a viz gold?

And yes, I should research it myself, which is why I come burdened by gold of all descriptions, bar, plate and trinket to this thread.

gg

 

[UMike]

Times must be tough as the wify is buying up lots of trinkets. Right royal cash converter is she.

Still a fan of KCN but this might be a play on Politics and competency more than Gold.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Times must be tough as the wify is buying up lots of trinkets. Right royal cash converter is she.

Still a fan of KCN but this might be a play on Politics and competency more than Gold.

KCN does look tasty. And gold does well Thursday in the USA.




gg

 

[UMike]

KCN does look tasty. And gold does well Thursday in the USA.


View attachment 169167

gg

Well if you can handle spicy food......

 

[DaveTrade]

The momentum in GLD is still down, it's found a bit of support around the 186 area but it could go lower. If it breaks that 183 level then it will make a lower low, this would not be good, if it breaks the 179 area then it's in real trouble. I don't expect it to break the 179 area but all I do is monitor the market and look to see when strength to the upside returns, I'm not seeing it yet.

 

[mullokintyre]

It would seem that Institutional buying of gold started to taper off at the beginning of 2002.
Perhaps the recent corrections in gold price are a realisation of that.
interestingly, Gold demand in technology has remained pretty stab;e over the lasy 8 years.
Mick

 

[DaveTrade]

The momentum in GLD is still down, it's found a bit of support around the 186 area but it could go lower. If it breaks that 183 level then it will make a lower low, this would not be good, if it breaks the 179 area then it's in real trouble. I don't expect it to break the 179 area but all I do is monitor the market and look to see when strength to the upside returns, I'm not seeing it yet.
View attachment 169180

Lucky for Australians holding gold positions, the AUD-USD exchange rate has been falling supporting the price of gold for us.

 

[mullokintyre]

It would seem that Institutional buying of gold started to taper off at the beginning of 2002.
Perhaps the recent corrections in gold price are a realisation of that.
interestingly, Gold demand in technology has remained pretty stab;e over the lasy 8 years.
Mick

View attachment 169209

Should read 2022 not 2002.
Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Should read 2022 not 2002.
Mick

Unforgivable behaviour, Mick.

Instos are often dwarved as well by sudden moves in Central Banks' buying which is often only realised after the fact. e.g Russia , Iran, and other holiday destinations.

gg

 

[Sean K]

The momentum in GLD is still down, it's found a bit of support around the 186 area but it could go lower. If it breaks that 183 level then it will make a lower low, this would not be good, if it breaks the 179 area then it's in real trouble. I don't expect it to break the 179 area but all I do is monitor the market and look to see when strength to the upside returns, I'm not seeing it yet.
View attachment 169180

Yes, seems to have stalled but that support is positive, for now.

GLD monthly chart support and resistance on 10 year, 5 year and 1 year.

Not sure if these should be mapped separately but interesting putting the long term S&R on shorter timeframes.

At a juncture again where we're in that 3 year resistance zone, but looks positive on the monthly chart to me.

Monthly gold is holding above old ATH closes.




USD POG

 

[DaveTrade]

Is now the best time to invest in gold

Is Now the Time to Invest in Gold? - Avalon

Despite gold flirting near all-time highs, gold stocks have seriously underperformed the market.

avaloninvest.com

 

[DaveTrade]

Yes, seems to have stalled but that support is positive, for now.

GLD monthly chart support and resistance on 10 year, 5 year and 1 year.

Not sure if these should be mapped separately but interesting putting the long term S&R on shorter timeframes.

At a juncture again where we're in that 3 year resistance zone, but looks positive on the monthly chart to me.

Monthly gold is holding above old ATH closes.


View attachment 169436View attachment 169434View attachment 169435

USD POG

View attachment 169449

Showing where the market is in relation to a previous monthly resistance zone is perfectly valid IMO. I would describe the market as pausing on the monthly chart, backing off from resistance on the weekly chart and finding support on the daily chart. I'm still looking for more upside conviction to come in but holding a support area is a show of strength.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I was just thinking about Gold and I’ll use one of @Sean K ’s charts to illustrate my thinking.




A burst up to $USD3000 is on the cards as a medium to high possibility given the long length Gold has stayed at about $USD2000.

A fall to $USD1800 is possible but unlikely. A fall to $USD1600 is unlikely and highly improbable. I would be very interested at both those levels should they ever be seen again.

gg

 

[ducati916]

So since an article on M2 appeared on my other thread, an update:







Silver, wildly underpriced, Gold slightly over and BTC slightly under.

Obviously, the important question: do you expect more or less monetary growth (inflation) moving forward?



While they were borrowing USDs with one hand, foreigners were buying USD-denominated assets with the other.


This drove the US NIIP from -15% of GDP in 2008 to -65% in 2023 and amounted to the US hocking/selling US assets to fund the US economic recovery.

Without a doubt, 99% probability, we have inflation, lots and lots of inflation moving forward.

So it really depends on why you invest/trade the Big 3. (a) to protect wealth or (b) to speculate. Both are valid. Probably more of (a) and a little of (b) is the way to go. Well that's my way anyway.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading

I believe Gold could go either way. It has certainly been making ground on the back of global uncertainty with all this terrorism business.
And I agree that higher inflation would definitely have a positive impact on the price of gold.

But what about the strength of the American economy? When the American economy booms, the price of gold tends to suffer as people turn away from the yellow metal and into other investment vehicles. Lately US growth has been strong and I'm beginning to think that this is what has been holding gold back lately.

I'm largely undecided although if I was a betting man I'd say it'll see US$410 again before it sees US$350.

Anyway, here's the chart.

Would love to hear some other views.

Re: GOLD Where is it heading

You shoulda had that bet Joe!

August Gold threatening 410 as I type. Interesting to see if it stays in the channel or pops out.

I just thought I'd post a link to a marvellous video on Gold, narrated by Idris Elba. As the quotes above from 2004, when ASF first started show, Gold is well worth the interest.

How soon will it reach $USD3000, or will it retreat to $USD1800?

It lasts well over one hour, but is well worth the watch.

I like Gold.

https://thegoldenthread.gold.org/season-two/gold-a-journey-with-idris-elba

gg

 

[rcw1]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
G o l d - on some resistance...either back off from here or break through ...


rcw1 feels confident, don't know where rcw1 evidence base comes from though other than gut feel which really doesn't justify an opinion ... anyways ...

Do say though always held the belief if the PoG managed to stay above that magic US 2k then that would improve the likelihood of gold prices shifting more often than not into a much higher threshold and then on and on and on from then ..
Funny thing is, the more that rcw1 said this the more rcw1 believes it ha ha ha ha; consequently much prefer no mans land country greater than US 2K

Have a very nice evening some Doors to think about:





Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
G o l d - on some resistance...either back off from here or break through ...

View attachment 169843
rcw1 feels confident, don't know where rcw1 evidence base comes from though other than gut feel which really doesn't justify an opinion ... anyways ...

Do say though always held the belief if the PoG managed to stay above that magic US 2k then that would improve the likelihood of gold prices shifting more often than not into a much higher threshold and then on and on and on from then ..
Funny thing is, the more that rcw1 said this the more rcw1 believes it ha ha ha ha; consequently much prefer no mans land country greater than US 2K

Have a very nice evening some Doors to think about:





Kind regards
rcw1

Depends on the time frame of the chart. 1d, 1wk and 1mth have different levels of S&R, MACD and RSI, etc.