Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Garpal Gumnut said:

While one cannot predict the future, my belief is that the POG will move forward from here, in a gradual fashion up through $USD 2100 without there being a significant event to signal a breakthrough.

There would appear to be sufficient long term fundamental factors as quoted above to justify this opinion.

Another more important question would be, why or what would cause the POG to retreat?

gg

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Significant USD weakness may be a catalyst and vice versa.

Technically, if those resistance / ATH levels mentioned above are broken then we may have a case of FOMO that could potentially result in the start of the break up from the long term C&H I've been waiting two years for...

Garpal Gumnut said:

While one cannot predict the future, my belief is that the POG will move forward from here, in a gradual fashion up through $USD 2100 without there being a significant event to signal a breakthrough.

There would appear to be sufficient long term fundamental factors as quoted above to justify this opinion.

Another more important question would be, why or what would cause the POG to retreat?

gg

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Mr GG,

The only thing that could derail gold is that the REAL RATE of interest exceeded true inflation.

If this were to happen, the US Treasury market would have already blown-up necessitating outright monetization by the Fed, which of course would push true inflation into triple digits and the USD would on an exchange basis against gold be worthless.

So the actual answer is: nothing can derail gold. It is now a mathematical certainty. 100%. LOL.

jog on
duc

Not adding to positions until there's a weekly close over $2030, or it tanks again.

Made the mistake of thinking the last push up in Apr/May was 'the one'.

Sectors to Watch: Gold​

Just a quick one on gold – Which is on a four-day winning streak to US$2,040 an ounce. This triggered a strong response for gold equities, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 4.8% to a near 4-month high. Let's see if we see some follow through strength for local goldies on Wednesday.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF daily chart (Source: TradingView)​

Gold has hit an all time high in $US this morning as the US dollar continues to sink. The silver price is also climbing.

USD POG and GLD are almost identical. Looks like POG is breaking through ATH on the weekly just need to wait another day for confirmation. GLD needs to get through $191.

I suspect some more consolidation soon, it's run pretty hard, but I do hope for the FOMO factor to take over.

Hopefully this isn't just another tease.

Seasonality:



Just in case you were wondering.

jog on
duc

I think I said somewhere that if $2030 weekly was supported it might be a good thing.

Still some time for it to crumble.

Which rather tells the story that this is about USD hegemony and the replacement of the UST as the reserve asset of the world.

The rise in the POG is the ongoing accumulation of physical gold by the East.

The miners are exchanging a valuable asset for a fast depreciating piece of paper or digital entry on a ledger. Interesting.

jog on
duc

ducati916 said:

View attachment 166556View attachment 166555

Which rather tells the story that this is about USD hegemony and the replacement of the UST as the reserve asset of the world.

The rise in the POG is the ongoing accumulation of physical gold by the East.

The miners are exchanging a valuable asset for a fast depreciating piece of paper or digital entry on a ledger. Interesting.

jog on
duc

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Some patience has paid off but I haven’t seen it fully translated into gold stocks yet due to other economic factors.

Weekly close record seems to have been made. Need daily breakthrough now.

It should be an interesting Monday. I hope people set themselves well over the past 2 years.

Having said that, it’s been such a rapid rise, I’m still slightly cautious but will certainly be opening some larger positions on Monday.

POG back into its purple patch:


POG's 8-year rising trend continues, with today marking the 4th weekly breach of $2070.
A similar trend occurred way back in 2012 when $1790 was breached 4 times, and thereafter dropped back to $1046 four years later.

Given how fragile the world is at the moment, I'd say gold is about to go parabolic

Garpal Gumnut said:

Onwards and up to $USD 2012 in New York through our night.

There is much momentum presently.

$USD 2250 will not be a difficult target. Easy in fact.

gg

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POG
$AUD 3105.
$USD 2070

It is as it is, and it is good, and gg is pleased.

Payoff and add-on time for myself and all other Gold mavens on this thread beckons. Patience has been rewarded and doubling down time is in order. As I mentioned in other posts I believe the catchup for Gold over other assets will be steady, gradual and inexorable.There is no need to rush adding to one's holdings of physical and perhaps now is the time to seriously look at miners. Other considerations, particularly the cost of money and production, and the realised POG will predominate in that space. I feel more confident making shorter term plays on gold and its mining in this atmosphere than previously when it ranged in price.

The main drivers for the continuing rise in POG will be central banks and Asian and Developing world consumers amarrying and a afestivaling as they do. Between godbothering and reproducing there is a constant demand for Gold as man ( I use that term generically ) has a need to achieve power and also to wonder over the inexplicable leveller, his own mortality. The acquisition of gold for holding his worth and for showing off to his fellows and to his god is why Gold runs through millennia as his store. Large central banks, being run by lunatics of the abacus and Narcissus, piled in to gold in the last quarter and their poorer cousins will continue to do so this and next quarter.

A cold northern winter beckons, the overseas Gumnuts tell me this last week has been bitter, and a final blowoff in bitcoin is occurring. Being wet and cold concentrates the mind. As BTC begins to fall back towards $USD 10,000, it can only be good for gold as the criminals and lunatics presently flocking to the former will return to Gold. Large amounts of BTC are held short term by the Italian, Irish, Israeli and Arab mob cousins as a consequence of their drug peddling and their financial advisers in Dubai will be counselling Gold over Mr. Satoshi's wallet. These movements I believe are drivers for short term changes, spikes, retracements in the POG.

An often overlooked relationship is that between Gold and Oil. The inevitable recovery and outperformance of Oil will affect the Gold price. I have not yet settled my thinking on this eventuality, whether it will accelerate or dampen the Gold price. It is the only note of caution that I put out there although long term they appear to run apace.

I, in all matters, generally find it useful to only panic when my ideas or worth are plummeting, so this present improvement in Gold to which I am committed, is a time for reflection and planning.

I very much appreciate the contribution by members of ASF on this Gold thread as it contributes in a major way to my thinking on Gold. To be honest I value your comments over any other analysis out there on Gold. Post on you feckless drifters and ne'er do wells, you dreamers and chasers of Gold.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

Payoff and add-on time for myself and all other Gold mavens on this thread beckons. Patience has been rewarded and doubling down time is in order. As I mentioned in other posts I believe the catchup for Gold over other assets will be steady, gradual and inexorable.There is no need to rush adding to one's holdings of physical and perhaps now is the time to seriously look at miners. Other considerations, particularly the cost of money and production, and the realised POG will predominate in that space. I feel more confident making shorter term plays on gold and its mining in this atmosphere than previously when it ranged in price.

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Rick Rule's theory is that PMs are currently 0.5% of total investments but over the past 40 years they've averaged about 2% so there's 4 x upside to come back to the mean. Unless the 40 year benchmark period was an anomaly PMs have some room to move.

When the mainstream start to acknowledge the truth, things are pretty ******* bad.

jog on
duc

While not taking position /debating:
In orange : Ukraine gains, in red Russian gains at the end the Ukraine's summer counter offensive

A net loss for Ukraine, (from western french pro Ukrainian media)
If true, the average age of the Ukrainian fighter is now 42y old...
I suspect that the fall of Zelenski or better worded, the failure of Biden/swamp will be a strong factor in the pog rise.
That also destroys whatever credential the Euro as a refuge currency had/could have, so:
USD, yuan, yen or gold/btc.
gold future is bright

Fascinating chart I found on another website that illustrates the extent of the devalauation of the US dollar in the last 100 years. It plots the number of ounces of gold that can be purchased by US$1000.

With all the money printing that has gone on since COVID-19 appeared in early 2020, it's amazing gold is only US$2000 an ounce. It seems clear that with the money supply set to continue to increase in the coming years it is likely that the price of gold will only continue to soar.

Still going up.
$USD 2140 as I type.
Although I am ultra bullish on gold, historically, things that rocket up really quickly tend to have a pull back.
Gold will be no different, it will need a breather.
There are couple of gaps that will likely need to be filled as the charting experts pour over the entrails.
Put in a few sell orders to take some profits on my most recent purchases.
Mick

mullokintyre said:

Still going up.
$USD 2140 as I type.
Although I am ultra bullish on gold, historically, things that rocket up really quickly tend to have a pull back.
Gold will be no different, it will need a breather.
There are couple of gaps that will likely need to be filled as the charting experts pour over the entrails.
Put in a few sell orders to take some profits on my most recent purchases.
Mick

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A beautiful thing.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Will it go back to test previous resistance as support, or just go nuts. I'll be happy with nuts.

InsvestoBoy said:

I generally feel uncomfortable when gold makes an outsized up move during Asian trading sessions, usually London is happy to reverse it.

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lol, big stop run in extreme low liquidity this morning, already being reversed.

Spreads for some providers were $5!