Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

View attachment 166075

Interesting chart rcw1. Is that your sinus rhythm?

Gold is looking for a catalyst. The wars have been short term hits but they only last a few weeks until things sort themselves out one way or the other. Unless something dramatically escalates then the fear factor just wears off in relatively short time.

What's the catalyst for breaking this sideways, consolidation, coiling move over the past few years?

Does it have to be a financial breakdown, or just the start of another QE and rate reduction cycle?

Maybe a Taiwan attack added to Ukraine and ME tips it over the edge of just a simple war premium as the consequences of that would be far wider and deeper?

 

[rcw1]

Interesting chart rcw1. Is that your sinus rhythm?

yeah not real flash... rcw1 does like your charts though mostly...

Have a good day, today bloke.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[DaveTrade]

The big picture on GLD is UP and then SIDEWAYS.


Zooming in on the current sideways zone, I'm showing some support and resistance areas within the most recent price action. I'm looking to see which way the market will break out of this sideways zone and then make the next big move.


From the Oct 5 low the market has moved up within the zone making a higher high and higher low, it's come up against minor resistance at the Oct 27 high and so far it still looks strong to break through, if it can drive through this minor resistance without taking too much time then it should go on to the top of the 'big picture' sideways zone.

 

[ducati916]

Both the technicals and fundamentals are coming into alignment now:



Gold is fast taking its place as the reserve asset for net settlement of trade flows.



Full article: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dutch-central-bank-admits-it-has-prepared-new-gold-standard

My preference is for physical.

Argentina with the election of their new chap has turned around and will likely nationalise commodity assets. This will be a far wider problem than just in places like Argentina. This will be found in Western G7 nations once the SHTF.

jog on
duc

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Signs of distribution showing on the daily chart...2985 to be tested? Support zone is much lower than that around 2915-2945.

Geopolitical tensions are rarely the cause of sustainable price rises in sensitive assets, just look at recent action in crude.

 

[DaveTrade]

Signs of distribution showing on the daily chart...2985 to be tested? Support zone is much lower than that around 2915-2945.

Geopolitical tensions are rarely the cause of sustainable price rises in sensitive assets, just look at recent action in crude.

View attachment 166144

Hi @InsvestoBoy , you are not the only person that puts up charts of gold in Aus$. Quite a few people do this and I finally decided to post my thinking about this way of looking at the gold market.

I don't think that this is a valid chart to do technical analysis on because gold is priced in US$, therefore the US$ gold chart is a representation of the real market. The Aus$ gold chart is really a combination of two markets, gold and aus$-us$, see charts below;



What I do when looking at gold is put an indicator at the bottom of my gold chart to show me the movement of the Aus$. This is important when trading US markets using Australian dollars. Don't misunderstand me, the gold chart in aus$ will do this job well, it's just the TA of the gold market that is not valid unless it's done on the real market.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

it's just the TA of the gold market that is not valid unless it's done on the real market.

dude you draw your lines on the chart of GLD

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Rebecca Patterson in the Financial Times gives a reasonable summary of what to expect from gold if as expected we get a soft landing to inflationary concerns.

One would expect she says, bonds and stocks to rally at Gold's expense with lower inflation, however she notes major geopolitical and central bank events contributing to a strong Gold in 2024.

China and other "developing" countries have been increasing their gold reserves and all countries are considered to have their central banks on the buy side for gold in 2024. In China the flight to gold will be aggravated by investors and owners moving out of property in to gold.

The other issue is not just geopolitical war and disorder but the election cycle. More than half the world population appears to be headed to the polls in 2024. Elections breed uncertainty. Uncertainty is good for gold.

gg

 

[rcw1]

Rebecca Patterson in the Financial Times gives a reasonable summary of what to expect from gold if as expected we get a soft landing to inflationary concerns.

One would expect she says, bonds and stocks to rally at Gold's expense with lower inflation, however she notes major geopolitical and central bank events contributing to a strong Gold in 2024.

China and other "developing" countries have been increasing their gold reserves and all countries are considered to have their central banks on the buy side for gold in 2024. In China the flight to gold will be aggravated by investors and owners moving out of property in to gold.

The other issue is not just geopolitical war and disorder but the election cycle. More than half the world population appears to be headed to the polls in 2024. Elections breed uncertainty. Uncertainty is good for gold.

gg

Good afternoon @Garpal Gumnut

Gold is good

Some trivia:
Official sector buying (central banks and other government financial institutions) increased by 61% year-on-year to 387 tonnes in the first half of 2023. Growth was driven by record demand during the March quarter, with net purchases easing to be 35% down year-on-year in the June quarter. According to World Gold Council data for declared purchases, much of the buying was dominated by China (103 tonnes). Singapore (73 tonnes) was the second largest buyer and Poland (48 tonnes) the third largest.

Jewellery demand in China rose by 19% year-on-year to 347 tonnes in H1 2023. Growth was particularly strong year-on-year as the first half of 2022 base was affected by COVID-related mobility restrictions. Pent-up wedding demand and economic uncertainty supported jewellery demand, with gold, silver and jewellery the strongest growth category of Chinese retail sales over the first half of the year — increasing by 18% year-on-year.

Jewellery consumption in India — along with many other markets — declined year-on-year in the first half of 2023, due to high domestic prices.

Source is Resources and Energy Quarterly September 2023

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[greggles]

I'm buying precious metals not because of temporary geopolitical tensions, nor interest rates, but because of the ongoing debasement of the US dollar and the conspiracy among non-Western nations to further weaken the US dollar through de-dollarisation.

China and Saudi Arabia just signed a $7 billion currency swap that is designed to shift oil trade away from the US dollar. I believe that these efforts from a number of countries will be ongoing and represent a long term strategy to weaken the USA economically by weakening its currency. The US government is doing a pretty good job of it on their own by printing more money and going deeper into debt every year.

I believe it's inevitable that the US dollar will weaken over time - so will the Australian dollar - and precious metals represent a hedge against this outcome.

 

[rcw1]

… China and Saudi Arabia just signed a $7 billion currency swap that is designed to shift oil trade away from the US dollar. I believe that these efforts from a number of countries will be ongoing and represent a long term strategy to weaken the USA economically by weakening its currency.

Hello @greggles
Had a quiz look at the China and Saudi Arabia relationship.

According to Xalq qazeti (21/11/23):

Though Saudi Arabia has long been one of China’s main suppliers of oil, business ties have expanded in recent years, with Saudi Aramco investing billions of dollars in China’s petrochemicals sector and the kingdom trying to attract Chinese tech companies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Riyadh last year.

Interesting

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[greggles]

Hello @greggles
Had a quiz look at the China and Saudi Arabia relationship.

According to Xalq qazeti (21/11/23):

Though Saudi Arabia has long been one of China’s main suppliers of oil, business ties have expanded in recent years, with Saudi Aramco investing billions of dollars in China’s petrochemicals sector and the kingdom trying to attract Chinese tech companies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Riyadh last year.

Interesting

This is just one facet of what is a deliberate power play by countries such as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and a number of others to shift global economic power in their favour by weakening the US dollar. These countries have been stocking up on gold for years now, knowing that precious metals would gain when the US dollar begins to weaken.

We are at the tipping point now and I believe we will see US$3,000 per ounce of gold within a few years. Silver and platinum will see similar percentage gains. There is talk of a BRICS based gold backed reserve currency and it would not surprise me to see something along these lines announced at some point as another vector of attack against the USD.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thank you @rcw1 , @greggles .

Your recent posts above fit in quite nicely with my thinking on Gold. So many differing factors affecting Gold and all seem to be in alignment atm. I agree that politically the US is getting close to the ropes, and a loss in power for the mighty USD will help gold.

The other element is Bitcoin, which has become the currency of choice for disreputable regimes, international drug gangs, and people with a colourful and shady past. While not wishing misfortune on any investor, BTC is rather overdue for a correction. In previous times Gold was a haven for the above, I can see nowhere else to where they can switch except back to gold.

gg

ps @rcw1 . It is some time since I heard mention of that newspaper of repute in Azerbaijan the Xalq Qazeti.

 

[DaveTrade]

I've heard talk that the US inflation story may not be over and they will be forced to keep printing money which will drive the US$ down further. If this happens the Gold price will be forced up from the declining US dollar making the aus$-us$ chart an important one for us here in Australia to watch.

 

[rcw1]

This is just one facet of what is a deliberate power play by countries such as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and a number of others to shift global economic power in their favour by weakening the US dollar. These countries have been stocking up on gold for years now, knowing that precious metals would gain when the US dollar begins to weaken.

We are at the tipping point now and I believe we will see US$3,000 per ounce of gold within a few years. Silver and platinum will see similar percentage gains. There is talk of a BRICS based gold backed reserve currency and it would not surprise me to see something along these lines announced at some point as another vector of attack against the USD.

Good morning @greggles
Truth be told, rcw1 is most excited about PoG and what may well occur in the medium term... so dynamic really, but as you would know anything can happen!!!

Has withstood the test of time and in these uncertain times, do believe holding physical gold has merit. This is an rcw1 opinion/assumption achieved through ones own due diligence.

Disclosure: rcw1 is holding physical.

Have a very nice week greggles.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[eskys]

Sectors to Watch: Gold​

US markets continued to grind higher in a relatively quiet and shortened trading session. Most of the above sector ETFs finished slightly higher notably Fintech (+1.1%), Uranium (+0.9%) and Cybersecurity (+0.8%).

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (+0.2%) logged a smaller overnight gain as gold prices closed above the key US$2,000 level. The ETF has recently marked a higher high and testing key levels such as the 200-day moving average and the $30 level.

Gold is rallying off the back of a falling US dollar, peak yields and rising geopolitical conflicts. The yellow metal is also exposed to secular forces such as rising US government debt, volatile inflation and economic headwinds which make it attractive for the medium-to-long term.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (Source: TradingView)​

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Onwards and up to $USD 2012 in New York through our night.

There is much momentum presently.

$USD 2250 will not be a difficult target. Easy in fact.

gg

 

[ducati916]

Gold demand:

Full story: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-investors-turning-gold



jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

Onwards and up to $USD 2012 in New York through our night.

There is much momentum presently.

$USD 2250 will not be a difficult target. Easy in fact.

gg

Here we go again, looking at this wall of resistance. Fourth attempt. I can't see a catalyst though.

We need a weekly close above $2030 for a start, then daily above ATHs $2070.

But, why?

JP Morgan takes the hand break off?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Here we go again, looking at this wall of resistance. Fourth attempt. I can't see a catalyst though.

We need a weekly close above $2030 for a start, then daily above ATHs $2070.

But, why?

JP Morgan takes the hand break off?

View attachment 166325

Onwards and up to $USD 2012 in New York through our night.

There is much momentum presently.

$USD 2250 will not be a difficult target. Easy in fact.

gg

Gold demand:

Full story: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-investors-turning-gold

View attachment 166324

jog on
duc

While one cannot predict the future, my belief is that the POG will move forward from here, in a gradual fashion up through $USD 2100 without there being a significant event to signal a breakthrough.

There would appear to be sufficient long term fundamental factors as quoted above to justify this opinion.

Another more important question would be, why or what would cause the POG to retreat?

gg