It's almost a given/certainty of serious war escalation spreading throughout the Middle East (now that Syria has become a secondary target) - unfortunately could get ugly as you alluded too & may yet lead to potential WW3 (if Russia gets directly involved backing Iran, Syria etc.)This war premium has legs. Looks like it’s just getting started too. I have a feeling the US and Israel are looking for an excuse to do some damage to Iran. France, UK and Germany seem to be signed up as well. Gunna get ugly. Worst case scenario is China taking advantage to take Taiwan. Gold could go ballistic.
But I think that the market is so strong that it could travel up to the resistance zone from the Aug 2020 top before making a pullback, if it does this GLD would be signaling a very powerful move to come. Lets see what happens.
This war premium has legs. Looks like it’s just getting started too. I have a feeling the US and Israel are looking for an excuse to do some damage to Iran. France, UK and Germany seem to be signed up as well. Gunna get ugly. Worst case scenario is China taking advantage to take Taiwan. Gold could go ballistic.
it breaks on through, silly billy ha ha ha ha haHere we go again.
Two and a half years of sideways action; winding, grinding, coiling, but what the hell happens at this resistance again?
All Signs Point to a RallyBy Jeff Clark, editor, Market MinuteThe gold sector can resume its rally now that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC or "the Fed”) meeting is out of the way. For whatever reasons, justified or not, gold stocks tend to behave poorly going into a Fed meeting. Gold stock traders tend to be a bit paranoid under normal circumstances. That paranoia gets supercharged when facing a potential move by the world’s most powerful Central Bank. This leads traders to back away from the sector in the days leading up to a meeting. But those traders come rushing back when the Fed doesn’t do anything. That’s the setup we’re looking at right now: The Fed didn’t do anything on Wednesday. All the signs are pointing to a rally… We’re entering a seasonally bullish time of the year for gold stocks. The bullish percent index for the gold sector has triggered a buy signal. And the Fed is on the sidelines at least until its next meeting on December 13, maybe longer. Right now, the technical condition for the gold sector is showing a potentially bullish pattern. Look at this chart of the gold bugs index (HUI)… This chart is forming the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. This bullish pattern indicates the reversal of a trend from bearish to bullish. The “neckline” of the pattern is at $230. It’s going to take a breakout above that level to confirm a new bullish trend. Once that happens, though, it should be a relatively straight shot up toward resistance at $260. This lines up with the previous support level from back in April. That breakout would be a 20% rally from Wednesday’s closing price. And it could happen before the next FOMC meeting on December 13. That might seem like an outrageous and unlikely move. But look at the chart again and notice what happened last year at about this same time. The HUI rallied from $180 at the start of November to $238 at the start of December. That’s a 32% gain in just one month! The bullish conditions for gold we looked at earlier this week are still in place. And now, with the FOMC meeting out of the way, gold stocks can resume their rally. The sector could be sharply higher just one month from now. Best regards and good trading, Jeff Clark |
Sideways is good.The war premium legs are running out. Needs another leg. Maybe an IOM or Sicily flag type thing.
Around $2000 seems to be a top here, but it's also holding up quite well above $1975 for the minute.
View attachment 165314View attachment 165315
While I would agree that the war premium legs may be fading we should not forget the other factors affecting the Gold Price.The war premium legs are running out. Needs another leg. Maybe an IOM or Sicily flag type thing.
Around $2000 seems to be a top here, but it's also holding up quite well above $1975 for the minute.
View attachment 165314View attachment 165315
While I would agree that the war premium legs may be fading we should not forget the other factors affecting the Gold Price.
Mood is everything, and unfortunately the mood is out of the yellow metal atm. Though as you intimate @Sean K , this may change.
- Bitcoin. In the last 2 weeks it has moved 12% higher. Were this to have happened to Gold we would be looking at the POG being $USD 2250.
- The USD which has appreciated recently against other currencies by a factor of 5%
- US stocks which seem to have found some legs.
- A possible peak, or near peak in interest rates. I've never quite been affected myself by rates but it seems to affect different markets differently at different times.
gg
Go Time for Gold Stocks
By Imre Gams, analyst, Market Minute
Gold stocks are about to explode higher.
The price chart looks amazing. The fundamentals are all lining up.
Today I’ll explain why this is one trade you should be really excited for…
For most of the year, gold stocks have been weighed down by the strength in the U.S. dollar. Remember, gold is priced relative to the dollar.
Generally speaking, a strong dollar can suppress the value of gold. But now the dollar is getting ready for a big reversal.
From July 14 to October 3, the dollar index rallied nearly 8%. That’s a big move in a short amount of time for a currency. But since putting in a top on October 3, the dollar index is already down nearly 3%.
That’s due to the market’s belief that the Fed is done raising rates. Higher interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar.
As the amount of yield on the currency increases, the dollar begins to attract investment flows away from other asset classes.
Now that the market has hope that interest rates won’t go higher, the dollar is beginning to be repriced lower. And fundamentally, that should be great for gold.
But it’s not just the fundamentals that are bullish for gold stocks. The technical picture also looks promising.
Take a look at this price chart of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) below:
View attachment 165995
GDX has now finished tracing out the right shoulder of a larger inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This is a textbook reversal pattern.
Once it breaks out, it should lead the market to much higher prices.
The target for the pattern is simple to calculate. All you have to do is measure the distance from the head to the neckline. Then take that distance and project it higher from the neckline itself. Fort this pattern, that gets us a target around $34.58.
If GDX can reach its target, it would make for one epic trade. It would also mean that gold stocks would be trading back where they were in May.
On the other hand, if GDX drops below the right shoulder, then the bigger picture would have to be reassessed. The price level for the right shoulder comes in at $27.
It’s easy to be blinded by the potential gains on a big trade like this one. But it’s even more important to focus on risk management. That’s why it’s essential to have a good exit plan in case the trade goes south.
Happy trading,
View attachment 165996
Time for gold to rise, I just had to sell a few gold etc
Go Time for Gold Stocks
By Imre Gams, analyst, Market Minute
Gold stocks are about to explode higher.
The price chart looks amazing. The fundamentals are all lining up.
Today I’ll explain why this is one trade you should be really excited for…
For most of the year, gold stocks have been weighed down by the strength in the U.S. dollar. Remember, gold is priced relative to the dollar.
Generally speaking, a strong dollar can suppress the value of gold. But now the dollar is getting ready for a big reversal.
From July 14 to October 3, the dollar index rallied nearly 8%. That’s a big move in a short amount of time for a currency. But since putting in a top on October 3, the dollar index is already down nearly 3%.
That’s due to the market’s belief that the Fed is done raising rates. Higher interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar.
As the amount of yield on the currency increases, the dollar begins to attract investment flows away from other asset classes.
Now that the market has hope that interest rates won’t go higher, the dollar is beginning to be repriced lower. And fundamentally, that should be great for gold.
But it’s not just the fundamentals that are bullish for gold stocks. The technical picture also looks promising.
Take a look at this price chart of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) below:
View attachment 165995
GDX has now finished tracing out the right shoulder of a larger inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This is a textbook reversal pattern.
Once it breaks out, it should lead the market to much higher prices.
The target for the pattern is simple to calculate. All you have to do is measure the distance from the head to the neckline. Then take that distance and project it higher from the neckline itself. Fort this pattern, that gets us a target around $34.58.
If GDX can reach its target, it would make for one epic trade. It would also mean that gold stocks would be trading back where they were in May.
On the other hand, if GDX drops below the right shoulder, then the bigger picture would have to be reassessed. The price level for the right shoulder comes in at $27.
It’s easy to be blinded by the potential gains on a big trade like this one. But it’s even more important to focus on risk management. That’s why it’s essential to have a good exit plan in case the trade goes south.
Happy trading,
View attachment 165996
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