Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Telamelo]

Heading towards a quintuple top perhaps.

Another update out this morning

 

[Sean K]

Another update out this morning

I think every TA agrees positively breaking USD2100 is going to be a party starter. I've made a pretty big bet that's going to eventually happen and have been waiting patiently but painfully for some time. Hopefully our gold stocks catch up to the gold price movement at some stage.

 

[Telamelo]

I think every TA agrees positively breaking USD2100 is going to be a party starter. I've made a pretty big bet that's going to eventually happen and have been waiting patiently but painfully for some time. Hopefully our gold stocks catch up to the gold price movement at some stage.

Gold may not even take a breather as Israel just announced it's intensifying it's attacks on Gaza before ground invasion commences & their tanks roll in.

 

[ducati916]

While the additional war in the ME is probably adding a bit of a premium, the real 'issue' is this:



As such:



The 'usual' run to safety, ie., UST, no-one with any sense is interested. Gold has diverged from nominal and real rates. A significant secular inflation is underway.



So GLD v GDX and GDXJ

For context:



For a trading vehicle, sure producers. To preserve wealth into this secular inflation, physical, held personally.

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

Another way to consider GLD at the moment.

As mentioned in in previous posts and embedded video's from @Telamelo probably needs some healthy consolidation

 

[eskys]

The price of gold in AUD terms has gone from2850 on October 5th to 3119 today, damn near a 10% increase.
For some Oz playeys who had AISC levels well above the 2K mark, this represents a 30% increase in the profit margin .
So why is it that most oz goldies have only increased by 10to 15%?
Is the market slow, expecting a pull back, or just run out of patience with gold producers?
Food for thought.
Mick

the average realised gold price sits dangerously close to all-in costs.

• For Newcrest, that’s a US$74/oz margin
• For Evolution, it’s a more comfortable margin of $520/oz
• For Northern Star, it’s a negative -$297/oz margin

So what does the data tell us?

• Cost inflation is very real
• Gold prices must remain above current levels
• A lot’s priced in if gold miners are allowed to trade at current valuations with these kinds of margins and cash flows (e.g. the market expects higher gold prices in the medium term.)

 

[eskys]

More on gold. I'm going to lump it all together here:

• All-in sustaining cost includes all direct costs associated with mining, processing and refining gold as well as indirect costs such as admin, sustaining capex etc.
• All-in costs include a broader range of expenses including those related to growth and expansion projects. This provides a more comprehensive picture of a gold mining company’s overall cost structure.

Newcrest Mining (NCM) – September quarter 2023

• Gold production – 454,312 ounces
• Average realised gold price –US $1,908 an ounce
• All-in sustaining cost – US$1,397 an ounce
• All-in cost – US$1,834 an ounce

Evolution Mining (EVN) – September quarter 2023

• Gold produced – 158,304 ounces
• Average realised gold price – $2,907
• All-in sustaining cost – $1,612 an ounce
• All-in cost – $2,387 an ounce
• Group cash outflows of $26.4 million

Northern Star (NST) – September quarter 2023

• Gold produced – 190,000 ounces
• Average realised gold price – $2,815 an ounce
• All-in sustaining cost – $1,844 an ounce
• All-in costs – $3,112 an ounce
• Net mine cash flow $36 million

 

[Telamelo]

Another way to consider GLD at the moment.

As mentioned in in previous posts and embedded video's from @Telamelo probably needs some healthy consolidation

View attachment 164422

More on gold. I'm going to lump it all together here:

• All-in sustaining cost includes all direct costs associated with mining, processing and refining gold as well as indirect costs such as admin, sustaining capex etc.
• All-in costs include a broader range of expenses including those related to growth and expansion projects. This provides a more comprehensive picture of a gold mining company’s overall cost structure.

Newcrest Mining (NCM) – September quarter 2023

• Gold production – 454,312 ounces
• Average realised gold price –US $1,908 an ounce
• All-in sustaining cost – US$1,397 an ounce
• All-in cost – US$1,834 an ounce

Evolution Mining (EVN) – September quarter 2023

• Gold produced – 158,304 ounces
• Average realised gold price – $2,907
• All-in sustaining cost – $1,612 an ounce
• All-in cost – $2,387 an ounce
• Group cash outflows of $26.4 million

Northern Star (NST) – September quarter 2023

• Gold produced – 190,000 ounces
• Average realised gold price – $2,815 an ounce
• All-in sustaining cost – $1,844 an ounce
• All-in costs – $3,112 an ounce
• Net mine cash flow $36 million

Thanks @eskys for sharing as saw/read that article as well.

 

[Sean K]

More on gold. I'm going to lump it all together here:

• All-in sustaining cost includes all direct costs associated with mining, processing and refining gold as well as indirect costs such as admin, sustaining capex etc.
• All-in costs include a broader range of expenses including those related to growth and expansion projects. This provides a more comprehensive picture of a gold mining company’s overall cost structure.

Newcrest Mining (NCM) – September quarter 2023

• Gold production – 454,312 ounces
• Average realised gold price –US $1,908 an ounce
• All-in sustaining cost – US$1,397 an ounce
• All-in cost – US$1,834 an ounce

Evolution Mining (EVN) – September quarter 2023

• Gold produced – 158,304 ounces
• Average realised gold price – $2,907
• All-in sustaining cost – $1,612 an ounce
• All-in cost – $2,387 an ounce
• Group cash outflows of $26.4 million

Northern Star (NST) – September quarter 2023

• Gold produced – 190,000 ounces
• Average realised gold price – $2,815 an ounce
• All-in sustaining cost – $1,844 an ounce
• All-in costs – $3,112 an ounce
• Net mine cash flow $36 million

Not sure if the NST numbers are correct there. Did you read the wrong ann?

 

[Telamelo]

Not sure if the NST numbers are correct there. Did you read the wrong ann?

View attachment 164447

Earlier info. by eskys taken from market index e-mail report sent out to subscriber's maybe they've erred with figures reported

 

[mullokintyre]

No continuation in Oz/Asian markets this morning.
Looking for a pull back over the next few days before it shoots to the moon.
mick

 

[Sean K]

No continuation in Oz/Asian markets this morning.
Looking for a pull back over the next few days before it shoots to the moon.
mick

Come on Mick, consolidation very much needed, but it's going to Jupiter after that!

 

[eskys]

Not sure if the NST numbers are correct there. Did you read the wrong ann?

View attachment 164447

I was surprised about NST too, as that was my preferred stock to the other two.....did anyone check it out if the info sent out was correct, Tela, Sean, anyone?

 

[Sean K]

I was surprised about NST too, as that was my preferred stock to the other two.....did anyone check it out if the info sent out was correct, Tela, Sean, anyone?

I didn't check the others, it was just that the NST AIC jumped out at me because it looked very ordinary, even with the KCGM capital costs.

 

[eskys]

I didn't check the others, it was just that the NST AIC jumped out at me because it looked very ordinary, even with the KCGM capital costs.

I didn't check any of them because I didn't hold any, still don't hold....posted the above mainly in response to Mick's thoughts.

 

[Sean K]

All news seems to be pointing towards the ME conflict escalating. And Israel hasn't even entered Gaza yet. Hezbollah more than likely to distract Israel to the north. Yemen firing missiles from the SE. Who know what Iran is going to do. This conflict may provide gold with a little more legs than the Russian invasion did. But, the music will stop at some stage, I sort of hope.

184 proved too much for GLD in the short term.

Ideally, probably want to see it consolidate above 180 for a bit then the next leg up.

 

[DaveTrade]

All news seems to be pointing towards the ME conflict escalating. And Israel hasn't even entered Gaza yet. Hezbollah more than likely to distract Israel to the north. Yemen firing missiles from the SE. Who know what Iran is going to do. This conflict may provide gold with a little more legs than the Russian invasion did. But, the music will stop at some stage, I sort of hope.

184 proved too much for GLD in the short term.

Ideally, probably want to see it consolidate above 180 for a bit then the next leg up.

View attachment 164613

It's hard to predict the unpredictable, all we can do is wait and see. Yes we know it's early in the conflict but how it will play out between the countries in this region, who knows what they may do.

 

[Sean K]

It's hard to predict the unpredictable, all we can do is wait and see. Yes we know it's early in the conflict but how it will play out between the countries in this region, who knows what they may do.

Yes, very.

Something out of the blue today was Macron saying they were going to back Israel to defeat Hamas and wanted the coalition fighting against Islamic State to extend that to Hamas.

"France is ready for the international coalition against Daesh in which we are taking part for operations in Iraq and Syria to also fight against Hamas," he told reporters, referring to Islamic State.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Something out of the blue today was Macron saying they were going to back Israel to defeat Hamas and wanted the coalition fighting against Islamic State to extend that to Hamas.

Outside of OSINT, they were the first state actor to call the hospital bombing not an Israeli action but a Hamas own goal

 

[divs4ever]

Not sure if the NST numbers are correct there. Did you read the wrong ann?

View attachment 164447

watch the currency with NST those North American mines ( quoted in $US ) tend to cause confusion/errors

i hold NST and EVN