Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[divs4ever]

Are there any older members who used to be chalkies can tell everyone when this reversal is going to end.

I only got up because the dogs were barking.

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gg

your dog deserves a treat , can it text as well ( when you are busy at work , not watching the markets )

seems to be testing the $2000 level , so what is the news elsewhere that needs to distract the market ( for instance is there a bond auction on the go )

 

[bux2000]

I only got up because the dogs were barking.

'It was a maelstrom': Trading floor 'chalkies' remember the chaos of the 1987 crash

The morning of Tuesday October 20, 1987 started out like any other for Paddy Hore and James Sherrard. Little did they know they were about to have front row seats to a global meltdown.

www.abc.net.au

I hope it brings back some memories ...............good ones as well

bux

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I only got up because the dogs are barking

.... A mate of mine..

 

[DaveTrade]

I started out learning Gann , for interest I'm putting up a GLD chart with some Gann levels. The 1x2, 1x4 and 1x6 lines all had significance to this market, what will happen at the 1x8 line?

View attachment 155715

This is a good example of the reason that I moved away from Gann analysis, I found it to be too unreliable for me. Others may have had success with it but I didn't, I also found that as I got deeper into the theory the more complex it that it became which only made it even more unreliable for me.

Leaving Gann behind I'll talk about some of the things that I look at now, starting with a weekly chart. Price has moved into the resistance zone created from the Mar22 top and came up to the lower edge of the resistance zone from the Aug20 top. As can be seen the Mar22 top was a reaction from the Aug20 resistance zone. I added my timing indicator at the bottom which is a very short term momentum indicator, it shows weakening momentum from the Feb23 swing top to where price is now, price/momentum divergence. This divergence increases the chance that the resistance zone will hold and the market will have some degree of pullback. Zooming in on the chart below another mini-divergence can be seen between this Friday and a week ago.



The daily chart below confirms the weakening short term momentum. If the price can hold above the 10th Apr low of 184.19 then that would be a sign that there may be enough buyer interest to push higher through resistance. At this point I'm still bullish on Gold but with signs of weakening momentum it doesn't look like it will cut straight through this overhead resistance zone, so it's 'red alert' be ready for anything but don't panic.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

This is a good example of the reason that I moved away from Gann analysis, I found it to be too unreliable for me. Others may have had success with it but I didn't, I also found that as I got deeper into the theory the more complex it that it became which only made it even more unreliable for me.

Leaving Gann behind I'll talk about some of the things that I look at now, starting with a weekly chart. Price has moved into the resistance zone created from the Mar22 top and came up to the lower edge of the resistance zone from the Aug20 top. As can be seen the Mar22 top was a reaction from the Aug20 resistance zone. I added my timing indicator at the bottom which is a very short term momentum indicator, it shows weakening momentum from the Feb23 swing top to where price is now, price/momentum divergence. This divergence increases the chance that the resistance zone will hold and the market will have some degree of pullback. Zooming in on the chart below another mini-divergence can be seen between this Friday and a week ago.
View attachment 155791
View attachment 155801

The daily chart below confirms the weakening short term momentum. If the price can hold above the 10th Apr low of 184.19 then that would be a sign that there may be enough buyer interest to push higher through resistance. At this point I'm still bullish on Gold but with signs of weakening momentum it doesn't look like it will cut straight through this overhead resistance zone, so it's 'red alert' be ready for anything but don't panic.
View attachment 155803

Thanks @DaveTrade . Enjoyable and lucid reasoning from your chart.

I have only a small holding in Newmont in my Cigar Money account, and that is my total exposure to Gold.

I would add a rider to your post for Holders. Much smart money got out early this morning over the space of 30 minutes

PANIC.

Nobody because of the large resistance at $USD2000 will pay more than this for Gold. Many a teenage virgin, if such creatures still exist in China, India and Pakistan, will have to settle for a Perth Mint style or worse contaminated Gold Ring and jewellery for their weddings this year.

BTC has become respectable again to the headbangers with frontal lobe memory loss, and it is a serious competitor to Gold as it will be tied in to the BRICs attack on the US Dollar as a Petrodollar and last safe currency.

So, I am bullish on Gold, not just yet, and not at these prices at this time.

gg

 

[ducati916]

The technicals are now starting to reflect the fundamentals, which had been hidden/obscured.



So the USD is falling...by design:



Commonly referred to as the 'Daisy Chain' it is a world wide Central Bank policy of QE of quid pro quo. You prop up me, I'll prop up you. All with the idea of weakening the USD.

Of course a weaker USD means higher inflation for the US.



Interest rates have crushed the market. The US is a highly financialised economy. When markets are down, tax receipts are down:



Which means that the Treasury needs to float more debt. Who is going to buy it? The Fed. They are now pretty much the buyer of last resort. Highly inflationary.

Gold is responding technically now as pretty much everyone realises the game is now a structural, secular inflation.

Then of course you have Mr Putin and Xi:



It's going through resistance and never looking back.

jog on
duc

 

[DaveTrade]

I'm putting up one more chart of GLD just to see clearly with a very simple clear picture of where we are and how the market has been travelling;

 

[noirua]

 

[qldfrog]

Not sure where to put it,
It is bigger than gold but gold is key..
I noticed that article and the info that our treasurer went to get orders from the US/deep state before releasing the budget

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/federal-budget/jim-chalmers-drops-big-hint-on-upcoming-budget-after-washington-dc-trip/news-story/0554f3fdb67229566a85336d94f54ba3

Which makes me think the US might plan it's fight back to keep its USD supremacy , currently in a bad way
Albanese even got a lolly with a listing in the 100 most influencing people in the world..he should open a tik tok account.
So the Aussie government is being prep to be part of something big
I expect brutal move on gold in the very near future, this is an economic/financial war raging around USD supremacy and Gold, US and servants (EU, Australia,Canada maybe Japan) vs the rest of the world
I do not know the form it will take: Gold seizure ,even more suppression via JPM ,new crypto currency and control but this is on

 

[Tyre Kicker]

The US now has McCarthy pushing hard for a debt ceiling plan. Last time that happened in 2011, the standoff pushed gold to an all time high. The next 7 weeks is going to be interesting and scary. Surely the US won’t default on its debt ( bond payments) but… where does the debt end????

Charmers is simply preparing the Aussie media (and Aussie public) for a change in govt spending … preparing the excuses for what he is about to deliver. Using the IMF forecasts as a guide (excuse). Remember, we have to fund the subs and move to renewables, Some incredibly massive spending to come there. Where does the money come from for those commitments??

Not sure what role Aus, Canadian and Japanese govts can provide to help USD. I’d say none.

Europe??? France has already made their thoughts known re US and China. Too flakey over there.

 

[qldfrog]

The US now has McCarthy pushing hard for a debt ceiling plan. Last time that happened in 2011, the standoff pushed gold to an all time high.

Charmers is simply preparing the media (and Aussie public) for a change in govt spending … preparing the excuses for what he is about to deliver. Using the IMF forecasts as a guide (excuse). Remember, we have to fund the subs and move to renewables, Some incredibly massive spending to come there. Where does the money come from for those commitments??

Not sure what role Aus, Canadian and Japanese govts can provide to help USD. I’d say none.

Europe??? Countries like France have already made their thoughts known re US and China. Too flakey over there.

The EU is fully under the US diktat
They pay most of the (US ) weapons sent to Ukraine, and the US gas replacing the Russian one.
Macron trip to China was under the supervision of the German unelected EU president, a direct US deep state pawn.
We will see but USD supremacy is over economically and within a short term, the US hegemony is gone so the states have to do something very quick.
I expect something massive potentially unexpected within the next 3 months

 

[Tyre Kicker]

Like what frog?

Does the US have the influence over the Europeans it once had???

I think the US will have a crisis within their own govt over the next 2 months if McCarthy digs in hard re the debt ceiling.

 

[qldfrog]

Like what frog?

Does the US have the influence over the Europeans it once had???

I think the US will have a crisis within their own govt over the next 2 months if McCarthy digs in hard re the debt ceiling.

being far too well aware of the situation, the US power on Europe has never been bigger since the wall fell than it is now.
Nato is overall, and vassal leaderships in UK, Germany and France..what's left?
Unless you put Turkey in Europe, there is no European counterweight, just allies/servants?
What US says, Europe does..not that the population wants it..but who cares, this is 2023
The implication of this is that any Gold targetting measure be it seizure , fixed government imposed rate, whatever, is going to be valid for most of the west: EU, UK, Canad, Australia and US.
That is my view and I have been wrong so often...

 

[DaveTrade]

being far too well aware of the situation, the US power on Europe has never been bigger since the wall fell than it is now.
Nato is overall, and vassal leaderships in UK, Germany and France..what's left?
Unless you put Turkey in Europe, there is no European counterweight, just allies/servants?
What US says, Europe does..not that the population wants it..but who cares, this is 2023
The implication of this is that any Gold targetting measure be it seizure , fixed government imposed rate, whatever, is going to be valid for most of the west: EU, UK, Canad, Australia and US.
That is my view and I have been wrong so often...

Food for thought.

 

[rcw1]

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

US $1982.80

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Reckon the next 'upcoming 4th attempt' by Gold clearing US $2K level & actually staying above $2K - will succeed/see Gold power on higher imo never to look back.

AUD Gold price - am calling it to reach $3,600+ by end of 2023 imo

View attachment 155437

dude...

when are you going to take responsibility for your actions @Telamelo

 

[Telamelo]

when are you going to take responsibility for your actions @Telamelo
View attachment 155979

Yep seems I was wrong as Gold back below US $2K level - actually (between us) I have no problem admitting am wrong on occasions - a good trader always cuts losses sooner rather than later by taking/accepting responsibility for his actions/errors (acknowledging those times they get it wrong).

Guess 'as long as am right more often than wrong' is all that matters in this game lol

P.S. Still think Gold headed to AUD $3,600+ by later on this year imo

 

[ducati916]

Trying to trade the paper price is one way to approach gold. If you do, be aware that the US does not want...cannot allow gold to rise (at least unchecked) and will therefore fight it every step of the way.

Fundamentally, the POG is correlated to USD liquidity and Bond market stability (low volatility via the MOVE index).

This is primed for trouble.

To figure out USD liquidity:

Take:


And subtract:



The US Treasury is (will be) screaming for cash very soon. US Tax receipts are due and they will fall far short of fiscal spending. This requires an increase in the debt ceiling, which after all the usual drama and bs. will be increased.

The net result will be an expansion in the Fed's Balance Sheet to buy the Treasury issuance to close that deficit. Which of course is inflation.

While the FFR remains at 4.75% (rising to 5% in May) that new debt simply increases the deficits at a faster rate: the compounding effect, requiring further debt.

Hence the big money moving to physical gold.

The 'paper' price will attempt to 'paint the tape' to prolong the game as long as possible. Irrelevant (unless you are trying to trade the paper price). As far as the paper price is concerned, it seems to be correcting through time more than price. As soon as it comes down, there is an increase in physical buying forcing the paper price back higher.

jog on
duc

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Yep seems I was wrong as Gold back below US $2K level - actually (between us) I have no problem admitting am wrong on occasions - a good trader always cuts losses sooner rather than later by taking/accepting responsibility for his actions/errors (acknowledging those times they get it wrong).

Guess 'as long as am right more often than wrong' is all that matters in this game lol

I was making a joke that your boundless optimism is the reason the price went down but I guess it didn't come across.

P.S. Still think Gold headed to AUD $3,600+ by later on this year imo

See you at $900 then ?

 

[Telamelo]

I was making a joke that your boundless optimism is the reason the price went down but I guess it didn't come across.



See you at $900 then ?

Thanks for clarifying @InsvestoBoy as yes (true) am always the optimist especially when it comes to Gold.