Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[bean]

If I am wrong and the DOW goes to new highs for rest of the week expect this
The last chart posted by KAURI

IF I AM RIGHT EXPECT THIS
Look at his latest Gold and Silver Updates
http://www.clivemaund.com

 

[bean]

Went to bed thinking I have blown it.
I could not believe this morning
We have red and green today nothing matches.
However the US Market action was that of a down day not an up day.

The only thing is people will see the DOW made a higher close

I got everything I needed
The Nasdaq in my program (has gone badly negative) if it falls tomorrow is set up for a 2% down day.

However will wait and watch

 

[bean]

If I am wrong and the DOW goes to new highs for rest of the week expect this
The last chart posted by KAURI

IF I AM RIGHT EXPECT THIS
Look at his latest Gold and Silver Updates
http://www.clivemaund.com

As you can see it is still a battle. DOW up GOLD up
The trouble at the moment is the DOW.
Most other US markets want to correct. They may well drag the DOW down.
GOLD will follow the DOW.

A down day tonight may be all that is required to start the acceleration into this correction. A down day tonight and Nasdaq could easily drop over 2% .
And if that happens could be down for rest of the week

SO the action tonight and tomorrow night should finally show if the price of Gold is going to US$ 7xx or US$ 5xx within the coming weeks/days

 

[bean]

Just before US markets open GOLD down US$ seven.
Wall street is meant to open up
But will both be same colour in the morning?

 

[bean]

Just before US markets open GOLD down US$ seven.
Wall street is meant to open up
But will both be same colour in the morning?

No the complete opposite??
US Gold Indexes dropped approx 1% but not as much as you would have expected on such a large drop in the price of Gold.

Even Gold Indexes are being held up by the Dow.
Also Nasdaq last wednesday 9th may 2576 today 2547
It is still weak thought another two up days will have strenght
But its technicals are weak and it is being held up by the Dow

Gold after a large drop may well bounce tonight??
Gold is it now showing which way the markets should go?
Gold breaking free?
Dow stocks most of there earnings were due to weak US$
Its now rising..

 

[METALMAN]

We will know soon enough as the market will tell us exactly what it wants to do and when it wants to do that.

Relax

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Dow stocks most of there earnings were due to weak US$
Its now rising..

It's always been a currency play, more correlated to the $USD than the DOW. $USD having a run on percieved strength in the economy/sharemarket?. Gold is off the investment radar while ever the share market is booming like this.

Also, gold holding up remarkably well considering the headwinds it faces -

Spain's foreign reserves have plummeted to wafer-thin levels, leaving the country exposed to a possible banking crisis if the property market swings from boom to bust - despite membership of the eurozone.
The Banco de Espana's holdings of foreign currencies and gold have fallen to €13.2bn (£9.02bn), equivalent to 12 days of imports.
Over the past two months the Banco de España has sold off 80 tonnes of gold, flooding the world market with enough bullion to dampen the usual spring rally. The bank has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries, British gilts, and other investments at a similar rate.
Total reserves have now fallen by two thirds from €41.5bn in early 2002. Greece and Portugal have seen a similar drop.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...ILS&grid=&xml=/money/2007/05/16/cnspain16.xml

 

[bean]

DECISION TIME IS HERE

US MARKETS I called a high on 9/5
DOW is still making new highs???

Lets look at some US markets closing prices and dates
Nasdaq high 9th may 2576 today 2457
S&P 500 high 9th may 1513 today 1501
Dow Transports high 8th May 5218 today 5126
Dow Utilities high 7th May 531 today 530
NYSE composite high 9th May 9828 today 9825
NYSE international 100 high 4th & 9th May 7050 today 7003
S&P small cap 600 index high 9th May 433 today 427

I could continue with the list but I think the picture is clear

Gold is falling/correcting
If US Gold Indexes which are following US markets are at a decision point. The DOW if it makes a new high tonight may start to turn some of the other US indexes into making new highs therefore giving strength to the overall market.
Gold and Gold indexes if follow the direction of the general market could break to the upside.

If I am correct and the 9 th May was the high in US Markets (except the Dow - 30 stocks) and Gold is correcting
Expect tonight down in everything!!!!!
Or double tops made.

But if the US markets start making new highs
tonight / tomorrow night
Could I turn bullish??

 

[BlueDaze]

HUI Update by Stacy Himes

http://imagesocket.com/view/HUI_BB50_Support30069a.png

"The technical landscape for the HUI index is starting to deteriorate. As most traders are aware a neat trading range has been in effect for months now. Trading ranges eventually come to an end and this one will be no different. The 20, 50, and 100 week bollinger bands do a pretty good job of defining the swing parameters of this bull market on the key time frames. Since we are now getting some downside trendline penetration I would submit the trading range is shifting to a down bias. Support is strong at lower BB50. Therefore we will assume a breach of that support area is a very significant event. Until then the swing lows for trading purposes will be the 300 to 310 area.

If you are paying attention you will also note that the multi year log uptrend line has been pierced as of today. This comes on a already oversold reading. Therefore you would expect a decent tradeable bounce on further weakness.

Finally, I think it's noteworthy to examine the BB100 bands and a fractal comparison between the current pattern and that of 2004. I have pointed out in the chart and in previous posts that the wide bands do not support a bull market advance. Now in this chart I am suggesting that that little fractal in 2004 may be similar to the whole trading range we have had for the last year. This would suggest a correction of one degree larger this time around and is consistent with the wide BB100 bands. Clearly there will be steps and trade setups both long and short in-between, but thats the way I see the big picture at this time.

In terms of wave count, I see the October 2006 lows as a W in a compound zig zag or potential flat pattern. Unfortunately the shallow uptrending triangular pattern that followed does not satisfy me for a bullish ending pattern. The problem with the way the pattern progressed is that is was on a slow rise, which essentially got the index precariously overbought. A better setup would have been initial action to the downside with frequent trips to oversold during the pattern. So now my view is that the pattern looks more like distribution in a manner similar to the 2004 episode.

In the very short term, I expect a tradeable rally to start at any time in the next few days. We'll just have to see how far it gets. If you are following the XAU/Gold ratio then you see we continue to bang against that .20 area. I continue to believe accumulation should not be a automatic habit at this level. I would start accumulation when gold is just under the 65 week moving average and the ratio is under .19."

 

[CanOz]

GOLD is dropping like a Russian satelite!

down 4.5 USD/oz atm....

Cheers,

 

[bean]

update later
But well FALLING into place

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Fellow Gold Bugs,

Following is a out look on a weekly time frame on spot gold.

Very interesting situation playing out now on the chart. great trend from July 06 with lots of touches confirming this present strong trend.

Bull Side.
A major ascending triangle has formed has been forming for some time now adding to its strength, short term price is weak and returning to its trend line.

This is a great bullish set up in my opinion. I am looking for it to find support on its trend line and bounce off, once confirmed I will look to open longs.

If it is able to break 690 and make that resistance support I will look to add to my positions.

Bear Side
If the trend line is broken and becomes resistance, I will look to open shorts as this is it's major trend. next fibb support just above $600

Divergence is present on MACD but that has played true with its current weakness. Personally I put indicator messages and signs second to price. But that's me.

I read there are currently over supply fears that are slightly out weighing demand that could be what's stopping it from closing and holding above 690.

In a nut shell I am bullish on this picture.

Please see pdf chart.

 

[bean]

Fellow Gold Bugs,

Following is a out look on a weekly time frame on spot gold.

Very interesting situation playing out now on the chart. great trend from July 06 with lots of touches confirming this present strong trend.

Bull Side.
A major ascending triangle has formed has been forming for some time now adding to its strength, short term price is weak and returning to its trend line.

This is a great bullish set up in my opinion. I am looking for it to find support on its trend line and bounce off, once confirmed I will look to open longs.

If it is able to break 690 and make that resistance support I will look to add to my positions.

Bear Side
If the trend line is broken and becomes resistance, I will look to open shorts as this is it's major trend. next fibb support just above $600

Divergence is present on MACD but that has played true with its current weakness. Personally I put indicator messages and signs second to price. But that's me.

I read there are currently over supply fears that are slightly out weighing demand that could be what's stopping it from closing and holding above 690.

In a nut shell I am bullish on this picture.

Please see pdf chart.

At the moment I go with your Bearish side
But may revert to your Bullish side if I am wrong
The action in the next 3-4 days should show if the trend I have been saying is true, should start to pick up speed
As finally the US markets may join the party???
Time will tell

 

[x2rider]

hi trade it

A good aticle to read if you like your E-wave thing and quite bullish for gold at this time

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Field/may172007.html
Cheers Martin

 

[wavepicker]

In May of 2006 impulses in Gold/Silver were clearly identified to have terminated. As such bearish positions were taken. The outlook back then was for Gold/Silver to trend down OR at the very least nett sideways until the 8.5 Year cycle had bottomed. This was expected to bottom in 2008/9. In early June 2006, a chart was posted with the expected path/pattern Gold will take. So far that has tracked reasonably well. although the last major leg up was slightly higher than expected. With the US Dollar looking it may have found a low and as such a multi year rally should be starting, then Gold will probably do it tough for a while IMO. The same can be said for some of the metals in general

Just my opinion and 2c worth


Cheers

 

[CanOz]

In May of 2006 impulses in Gold/Silver were clearly identified to have terminated. As such bearish positions were taken. The outlook back then was for Gold/Silver to trend down OR at the very least nett sideways until the 8.5 Year cycle had bottomed. This was expected to bottom in 2008/9. In early June 2006, a chart was posted with the expected path/pattern Gold will take. So far that has tracked reasonably well. although the last major leg up was slightly higher than expected. With the US Dollar looking it may have found a low and as such a multi year rally should be starting, then Gold will probably do it tough for a while IMO. The same can be said for some of the metals in general

Just my opinion and 2c worth


Cheers

Good post WP! I wonder though if the USD has really found that bottom, or will it go back for a third test sooner than we think? I just can't see whats so attractive about it fundmentally.

Did you see the post on the two wave fractals and thier similarity? i thought that was interesting.

Cheers,

 

[wavepicker]

Good post WP! I wonder though if the USD has really found that bottom, or will it go back for a third test sooner than we think? I just can't see whats so attractive about it fundmentally.

Did you see the post on the two wave fractals and thier similarity? i thought that was interesting.

Cheers,

Time will tell canaussiek, certainly against the majors the USD has been doing better ATM and Gold and Silver seem to be doing it tough for the last week now. I know jack about fundemantals so can't comment as such, but certainly from a cyclical perspective it could well be a long here.

What post was that about the 2 wave fractals??



Cheers

 

[>Apocalypto<]

hi trade it

A good aticle to read if you like your E-wave thing and quite bullish for gold at this time

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Field/may172007.html
Cheers Martin

Thanks for the link. Very interesting stuff wave is such an amazing approach.

Also just read in Your Trading Edge that they are also bullish on gold.

Like I said in my analysis I will not place any longs till my analysis is confirmed so until it does bounce off it's trend line I am neutral!

Lets leave it to the market to decide!

 

[BlueDaze]

Barnes Index

Henry To:

Barnes Index jumped a whooping 4 points this week to 64.

As I said in our previous commentaries, we will be very bearish on the stock market when/if the Barnes Index jumps to over 70.

Note that at the last major top on May 10, 2006, the Barnes Index had a reading of 67.60

http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20060507.html

 

[bean]

The action in Gold and US Gold indexes is similar to some US Indexes which made there high on 9th May
Simply put They are at decision time.
They will break hard one way or the other Monday – Tuesday – Wednesday
They have been bouncing around some moveing averages and if DOW moves higher I think they will break out to upside. However if the US markets start to crack expect the crack to widen within days and gold to tumble fast


I posted this elsewhere
Now If I said the closing High I called on the 9th May in the US Markets is still in place.
Everyone would start laughing.

Lets take a look after friday's close
Nasdaq Conposite 9th May 2572 friday 2558
Nasdaq 100 9th May 1906 friday 1896
Nasdaq financial 100 7th May 3186 friday 3178
S&P 400 Midcap 9th May 899 friday 898
S&P Composite 1500 9th May 343 friday 342
S&P 600 smallcap 9th May 433 ?friday 428
And a few others as well. However some gave way on Friday just.
US Gold index are only a couple of % below there May highs and a few % below ther April Highs.

What I am saying if the DOW continues its advance at the begining of this week it will drag the above indexes with it?
Which would give more strength to its advance.
I also said the Nasdaq above 2550 would be back in bubble territory. On 26th April 2554 as you can see with the high it made on 9th May 2572 and friday's close 2558 it appears as thought it does not want to go higher? but could it be dragged higher

Us Gold indexes could be drag higher as well and will break out and Gold US750 -775 if they do that the DOW will be moving higher (lots 14500+??)

So there is roughly 3 days advance and the Dow maybe able to do the all the above

Basically the Bears have three days to take the Market down.
The above mentioned US indexes can still turn bearish with one or two days in a row down.
The others that just broke above there previous highs on Friday need two down in a row
So the next three days decide the next few weeks or months

As I said I may turn bullish during the week. But until then I am extremely Bearish.