Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[DannyB0000]

Gold may well be reaching the point where the paper manipulation reaches the failure point. With the US looking increasingly like resuming QE on the quiet, those that recognise this will start to build gold positions more overtly.

The full details in this post: https://mrromulus789137764.wordpress.com/2022/10/29/a-sub-rosa-pivot/

But in short, Treasury Secretary Yellen is signalling that the Treasury, or the Banks, or both, will be filling the stop-gap until the Fed can return to full bore QE again. This will be done via Treasury swaps and amended Bank SLRs.

jog on
duc

Can’t see the FED and other central banks cutting interest rates intil the inflation story has been resolved, it’s still unacceptably high. I think market players are being to optimistic about the Fed pivoting.

 

[ducati916]

Can’t see the FED and other central banks cutting interest rates intil the inflation story has been resolved, it’s still unacceptably high. I think market players are being to optimistic about the Fed pivoting.

The Fed will have to pivot or possibly what Yellen is proposing, a change in Bank SLRs and/or Treasury swapping duration.

Because the US is heading into or already in a recession, this puts the requirement to pivot as a purely arithmetic calculation.

A recession creates +/- 20% decline in tax revenues from a mild garden variety recession. Then add in a 9% increase in COLA benefits. That = 85% – 90% of tax revenue gone before you even spend on anything else.

Add in another 40% from a 5% rate on $31T debt (now actually sitting in excess of $32T and you have a grand total of 125% – 140% of your tax revenue gone before you even address anything else (every 100bps = $300B in increased interest costs).

Already the Fed is sitting on massive losses:



Which means the Treasury does not get those remittances.

If that were not enough, the rate of inflation by the Fed's own calculation is 8%. In truth it is probably closer to 16%. Anyway, with a FFR nominal rate of 5%, that is still a real (-3%) rate. That won't stop the inflation. The FFR needs to be about a nominal 10% to 11%. That kills the US economy.

Final point: the Fed isn't even fighting inflation. It is fighting a currency war with Russia & China to (try) and retain USD hegemony. The idea being that both Russia and China are 'emerging' economies and rely on sufficient (supply) liquidity of UST/USD.

Clearly Russia does not. Russia produces real commodities, energy being the critical commodity currently. Real assets trump paper. Russia and China are absolutely demolishing the US and the West.

With the US mid-terms in 10 days, there may be significant political pressure to pivot. We have already seen Democrat politicians seeking a pivot, which is why Yellen has got involved: she knows that the Fed is weaponised now against Russia and is already losing, hence resetting the SLR for banks which is QE, just a little more hidden from the general public's eye.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

One of the many questions friends ask me " Is Gold Convenient? ". I was reminded of this in an article by the well tuned Anna Golubova at Kitco this morning.

She was interviewing Vitalik Buterin a co-founder of Ethereum a crypto about which I have an open mind. He was quite negative about Gold despite the precious metal having way outperformed ETH over the last 2 years.

I always listen to others' opinions unless I have a division or five behind me to be dictatorial. In young Buterin's case, he is simply wrong.

These are 3 reasons why crypto beats gold: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin

www.kitco.com

gg

 

[CityIndex]

Gold has now seen 7 straight months of losses for the first time on record, with most of the bearish pressure coming from a surging US Dollar.

It will be interesting to see how this week’s FOMC Meeting impacts XAU/USD. If the Fed does in fact signal a chance of slowing their rate hikes come December, the Dollar may finally see more sustained pullback, and given the global recession concerns that will likely continue weighing on sentiment, gold may be better positioned than other major currencies to rally against the greenback.

Of course, all trading carries risk, and another round of hawkish rhetoric from the Fed may spark a retest of the support around 1615.

 

[KevinBB]

Gold Price - Where is it heading?​

I don't know where it is heading, but apparently it is going on a trip somewhere.

KH

 

[eskys]

Consolidating trip? Looks like it wants to turn the corner........hope it does a Gold Trip which won the Cup today

 

[rcw1]

Consolidating trip? Looks like it wants to turn the corner........hope it does a Gold Trip which won the Cup today

Hello eskys @ Keyes
Hoping find you well. Gold could have been on holiday.... It just needs to find itself again in such a complex world. This will happen.

Have a good day tomorrow.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Telamelo]

It was terrific to see 'Gold' finally do something thanks to 'Gold Trip' winning the Melb. Cup this afternoon lol

 

[eskys]

Good morning rcw1, everyone,

Sorry for the late reply. I passed out early last evening....not from drinking just in case you think that. Hope you are well.

Gold up $9, hope it gets a good run today, good luck.

Hello eskys @ Keyes
Hoping find you well. Gold could have been on holiday.... It just needs to find itself again in such a complex world. This will happen.

Have a good day tomorrow.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Some 400tonnes bought by central banks last Q.

 

[eskys]

Looking at gold again, it's back to base, static. Our dollar down a tad.............ahh, hopes and dreams, and reality.

Stronger than expected economic data last night........waiting for Fed tonight

 

[rcw1]

Looking at gold again, it's back to base, static. Our dollar down a tad.............ahh, hopes and dreams, and reality

Stronger than expected economic data last night........waiting for Fed tonight

Good morning eskys @ keys
Been reported News Corp media today (02/11/22) words to the effect:

A lift in growing financial market volatility is likely to push the Aussie dollar lower towards US59c by the end of March next year, CBA analysts expect.

The Aussie dollar was near US63.95c at the US close.

Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[eskys]

Thank you, rcw1. That's my thoughts too. Stronger than expected economic data last night had me thinking about interest rates by Fed this tonight....Can't see them going gentle, gentle...

Anyway, I'm done, got two out of three........one gone red......

 

[divs4ever]

remember there is a political event next week ,

be ready for extraordinary twists and turns ( which may or may not happen )

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It will be very interesting to see how the cousins in Hong Kong price Gold today.

It may indicate a re-opening of Comrade Xi's circus which will not just be good for Gold but for all commodities.



gg

 

[eskys]

remember there is a political event next week ,

be ready for extraordinary twists and turns ( which may or may not happen )

What event were you referring to, divs?

This market is so volatile, it'll put hair on our chests.

 

[divs4ever]

What event were you referring to, divs?

This market is so volatile, it'll put hair on our chests.

US .. and in an even-numbered year ( hint it may or may not raise months of allegations of Russian interference and/or vote-rigging ) along with months of social media bans

 

[eskys]

I'm guessing it has something to do with the colour orange. If it's that, don't know how it will affect the market, could be insignificant as far as the market is concerned.

Gold is up $8 at the moment and our dollar slightly green. Good luck with your investing/investments, divs

 

[Telamelo]

Nice to see the AUD Gold price relatively stable overnight @ $2,575

Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.com

Gold price in AUD (Australian Dollar). Historical chart and real-time quote (live price per gram, ounce, kilo) on the LBMA, yearly performance in Australian Dollar.

goldbroker.com

 

[DaveTrade]

GLD has been moving sideways for a couple of weeks now, so for me it's a wait and see game for gold to pick a direction from here.