Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[eskys]

I've been wondering where you were, gg, and pondering on the direction of gold......still can't make up my mind. Little news from posters on the subject, and has me wondering if punters have given up.

Hope the Northern Rivers aren't too full....I last I heard from the manager was ok, so keeping my fingers crossed. Sounds like you had a good trip to the Tweeds.

 

[bux2000]

Much rain but no hailstones to damage a fully refurbished Arnage, thanks Rick, in Tweed West.

So Pleased to read that bit of news.........I had a recent bad dream in which I saw you changing a tyre on a trailer behind a Prius ...........................knee deep in mud...........A charging station in clear view but no fuel or extention cord.......Oh what a nightmare .



While coming too ........my immediate thought was https://jackson.co.nz/jackson_electrical/lifeguard-7/

bux

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've been wondering where you were, gg, and pondering on the direction of gold......still can't make up my mind. Little news from posters on the subject, and has me wondering if punters have given up.

Hope the Northern Rivers aren't too full....I last I heard from the manager was ok, so keeping my fingers crossed. Sounds like you had a good trip to the Tweeds.

Thanks @eskys

War and a very cold winter in Europe unfortunately imo will propel Gold way, way above $USD 2000, and it will happen quickly imo.

From what I can gather, and I am no expert, the paper gold players are heavily shorted on Gold because of a high USD and may get trapped when the USD retreats somewhat.

My bet is that the rise in Gold will far outweigh any relative rise in our AUD to provide my Gold with a decent profit and then it may be time to shovel, retrieve and dispose of a percentage of my stores.

Interesting times.

gg

 

[CityIndex]

gold players are heavily shorted on Gold because of a high USD and may get trapped when the USD retreats somewhat.

This retreat may have already begun with speculation on a possible Fed pivot in December causing DXY to break uptrend support, as well as the major psych level of 110 yesterday.

Of course, any hint that the Fed will maintain their current aggressive rate hike path will likely fuel a new leg higher for USD. But technically speaking, there may now be scope for a deeper pullback.

Gold also needs to first clear some resistance around 1680. All trading carries risk, but if it can do so, and the greenback continues to weaken, the precious metal could be in for a sharp rally.

 

[bux2000]

My bet is that the rise in Gold will far outweigh any relative rise in our AUD to provide my Gold with a decent profit and then it may be time to shovel, retrieve and dispose of a percentage of my stores.

Hi Garpal it is nice to have you back and can I ask some serious questions about buying Gold?

There is so much to learn about so many things but I realise how complex this becomes when you take FX into account. When I look at a the charts with Gold in USD AUD and NZD for example they are all different. Buying Gold XAUAUD and XAUNZD there appears to be a similar problem. It is now obvious too that buying physical Gold in the past may have been an advantage by a gain in the XAUUSD Gold price and its and the USD's strength against with AUD and NZD .

I am probably making this sound more confusing than need be.

In short there now no way to hedge so is it simply a matter of suck and see and just make a descision as to when to juggle an entry point.

Thanks for your time.

bux

 

[divs4ever]

Thanks @eskys

War and a very cold winter in Europe unfortunately imo will propel Gold way, way above $USD 2000, and it will happen quickly imo.

From what I can gather, and I am no expert, the paper gold players are heavily shorted on Gold because of a high USD and may get trapped when the USD retreats somewhat.

My bet is that the rise in Gold will far outweigh any relative rise in our AUD to provide my Gold with a decent profit and then it may be time to shovel, retrieve and dispose of a percentage of my stores.

Interesting times.

gg

i am surprised you would convert your gold into ( any ) currency

i would have thought you would use it to acquire tangible goods ( property , machinery, maybe collectibles )

interesting times , yes i agree there

 

[eskys]

Hmm, should I worry about bux? He'd been dreaming of gg getting bogged, but not of his buried gold?

Gold is down presently almost $6, our dollar down a tad. Maybe next week will be clearer as to where gold will be heading. Pivoting to me is like a rumour, will it come true, I do wonder ...anyhow, all the best for gold holders

 

[bux2000]

i am surprised you would convert your gold into ( any ) currency

i would have thought you would use it to acquire tangible goods ( property , machinery, maybe collectibles )

interesting times , yes i agree there

Sorry Divs
I did say that I appeared to overcomplicate

I do not own gold yet but trying work out when would be a good time to buy it only because the US dollar is so strong but IMO it appears to be showing signs of weakness unfortunately I can only buy in NZD

bux

 

[bux2000]

Hmm, should I worry about bux? He'd been dreaming of gg getting bogged, but not of his buried gold?

Ahaa ...........but I know where he lives .

bux

 

[eskys]

Better if you know where the gold is buried, bux.......I'll be your driver and you can be the digger.

I know I shouldn't be thinking so much about gold, but I'm a little obsessed and unable to get it off my brain

 

[divs4ever]

Sorry Divs
I did say that I appeared to overcomplicate

I do not own gold yet but trying work out when would be a good time to buy it only because the US dollar is so strong but IMO it appears to be showing signs of weakness unfortunately I can only buy in NZD

bux

i would suggest ( almost ) any Central Bank currency is of notional value , whereas precious ( and some base ) metals can be swapped directly for desired goods

the USD ( and many other currencies ) is the subject of a complex web of manipulations ( and literally backed only by a government promise ) ( do YOU trust your government ?? )

when things really go ugly , you probably want a direct exchange of goods ( because the currency is liable to inflate/devalue by the day/hour )

read stories on previous hyper-inflation events ( in history )

 

[divs4ever]

THE SHIFT FROM PAPER TO HARD ASSETS IS JUST BEGINNING.​

if no access to physical gold or silver , what can you start accumulating ( in Europe a couple of tonnes of firewood is suddenly something of value )

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Very fast move on the way up through the 2615-2665 region, price ran to 2677 to trigger stops and then retraced as supply quickly returned at those levels.

Despite the rise in price, not too sure how bullish it is honestly. Seems to me more like we ran out of supply and floated up to where more could be found, and it was. Could easily tumble back down to 2560 the previous resistance now.

I take little pleasure in this view having being shown as correct



Supply above 2560 just continues to be ridiculously strong.

Nothing between 2560 - 2510 would really surprise me at all.

2680 would surprise me.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sorry Divs
I did say that I appeared to overcomplicate

I do not own gold yet but trying work out when would be a good time to buy it only because the US dollar is so strong but IMO it appears to be showing signs of weakness unfortunately I can only buy in NZD

bux

My attitude towards buying Gold is not when to buy but to imagine 6mo hence and ask myself should I have bought 6 mo ago, ie now.

It’s a matter of figuring what it’s going to be in $AUD in your forward time scale and to forget the weight of balls of steel one needs to negotiate all the variables.

gg

 

[DannyB0000]

I’ve held Northern Star shares for the last two years through Commsec and have recently bought Newcrest Mining shares through Aus super. I’d be buying the gold miners now while their under valued, could be a different story in 6 months if we get a global recession Or even Stagflation.

 

[ducati916]

I’ve held Northern Star shares for the last two years through Commsec and have recently bought Newcrest Mining shares through Aus super. I’d be buying the gold miners now while their under valued, could be a different story in 6 months if we get a global recession Or even Stagflation.

There are a number of issues with owning shares in miners:

(a) what if they are nationalised; and
(b) they are energy dependent, higher energy costs decreases their margins;
(c) shares into a hyper-inflation rise in nominal terms but crash in real terms;
(d) you do not have any control (unless you hold a controlling number of shares) in the company or the product.

If you are looking at gold/silver as risk management for your wealth, you need to own the physical. If you are speculating, fine.

In the 1970's inflation, physical gold increased x2 over the miners.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I’ve held Northern Star shares for the last two years through Commsec and have recently bought Newcrest Mining shares through Aus super. I’d be buying the gold miners now while their under valued, could be a different story in 6 months if we get a global recession Or even Stagflation.

Gold shares are a good investment, although as with everything timing is essential.

As @ducati916 pointed out there are even more variables with gold stocks, especially the price at which they are contracted to deliver Gold which can be at variance to the POG and depends as you would be aware @DannyB0000 on the intelligence of the outfit. The latter unfortunately follows the bell curve. I've a few kopeks on GOR for what it's worth.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

I tend to trade them.
Because there can be such extreme volatility, good profits and some big losses can be made.
the secret is to not attempt to time the top or the bottom of the market.
I tend to limit myself to a 10, maybe15% profit before getting out.
means I have missed out on some big jumps, buts fine.
if I cam get three or four of the smaller jumps in a year, thats fine by me.
Mick

 

[DannyB0000]

Granted my buy timing with NST was wrong in 2020. Commentators at the time were saying Gold was going to take off, ANZ had Gold at $2100 USD towards the end of 2020 and they were all wrong. Have been using averaging down to buy more parcels of shares on the way down. Northern Star has been profitable and the stock pays dividends. I’m an investor now not a trader.

Newcrest is undervalued at the moment. There was insider buying around $17.30 mark.

 

[ducati916]

Gold may well be reaching the point where the paper manipulation reaches the failure point. With the US looking increasingly like resuming QE on the quiet, those that recognise this will start to build gold positions more overtly.

The full details in this post: https://mrromulus789137764.wordpress.com/2022/10/29/a-sub-rosa-pivot/

But in short, Treasury Secretary Yellen is signalling that the Treasury, or the Banks, or both, will be filling the stop-gap until the Fed can return to full bore QE again. This will be done via Treasury swaps and amended Bank SLRs.

jog on
duc