Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

Was the spike in POG overnight a direct response to inflation numbers, or USD moves, or did they move at the same time?

View attachment 142770

All of the above imo.

But mostly because of the vibe.

China and Ukraine are in the background, and if I were the Chinese I'd take out Taiwan when nobody is looking coming up to the mid-terms in the Asylum of Barking known as the US of A.

As for poor little me, I am very upset about the market not opening in Queensland on Monday.

By Tuesday Gold could be much higher and Gold stocks may be ready for an upturn.

gg

 

[Captain_Chaza]

I feel you are correct Gg
I would hate to be a Queen'slander in these days

When Gold goes up over 1% All hell breaks lose over in all sectors
There will be NOWHERE else to Hide on MONDAY
See if you can organise an Online Broker! to get you out of the rest

RUN FOR SHELTER is my only advice

 

[Stockbailx]

Notice where on page 666. So gold where is it heading? Looking at the XAU/USD chart it finished on a significant high, on the last hours of last week Friday. With indication on the weekly chart it has turned and started heading north as momentum has appeared to have turned bullish for the week. looking forward to it reaching highs of 2070.0 and possibly breaking that resistance level by the end of the month. If not the next couple of weeks being optimistic and a realist...

 

[bluekelah]

I wouldnt get too excited about POG yet. If FED is forced to hike faster, stocks will correct faster. As in march 2020 markets tanked 30% and gold corrected about 10%. I believe should fed do a 75 or 100point hike suddenly, markets could tank another 20% and gold will follow as gold is sold off to pay for margin calls.

But yeah who knows, markets are a basketcase now, theres still a wall of money and it just depends where it goes. I do think that eventually like in the 1970s we will see gold do a 4x or 5x due to inflation and monetary debasement

 

[Stockbailx]

Fair call. Interesting prospective, looking at the negatives, may be to early to say but things look to be moving in a positive direction. Certainly expect some down turn early in terms of movement, but I'm hoping bullish momentum should carry on though for the month.
thinking of buying some lots on the next swing up? See how it pans out, but as you say it could well be exhausted...

 

[bluekelah]

Fair call. Interesting prospective, looking at the negatives, may be to early to say but things look to be moving in a positive direction. Certainly expect some down turn early in terms of movement, but I'm hoping bullish momentum should carry on though for the month.
thinking of buying some lots on the next swing up? See how it pans out, but as you say it could well be exhausted...

View attachment 142829

I am not a technical short term trader but from what I head Gold was in a cup and handle pattern and was poised to breakout soon.

HIstorically gold has gone down with stocks in recession times as everything is sold down but does a big recovery when financial market condition somewhat improve (usually with some loosening of credit and when money printing starts.)

in addition, the "free markets" are a basket case now and theres a lot of manipulation going on with paper gold. So it really makes it hard to predict what happens next.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I am not a technical short term trader but from what I head Gold was in a cup and handle pattern and was poised to breakout soon.

HIstorically gold has gone down with stocks in recession times as everything is sold down but does a big recovery when financial market condition somewhat improve (usually with some loosening of credit and when money printing starts.)

in addition, the "free markets" are a basket case now and theres a lot of manipulation going on with paper gold. So it really makes it hard to predict what happens next.

The only people to my knowledge who trade on a cup and handle pattern are on hotcopper. From my knowledge of charting specialists attached to large funds the cup and handle is a bit of a joke as a set up. As is the shoe and sock, and the Amber and Johnny.

Also with respect, gold does not go down with recessions, gold stocks do go down with the market, but not gold bar.

I would agree about the paper markets, though when all else about you are losing their heads, then is the time to make a profit. I see other people losing their heads and their money as opportunity.

gg

 

[bluekelah]

The only people to my knowledge who trade on a cup and handle pattern are on hotcopper. From my knowledge of charting specialists attached to large funds the cup and handle is a bit of a joke as a set up. As is the shoe and sock, and the Amber and Johnny.

Also with respect, gold does not go down with recessions, gold stocks do go down with the market, but not gold bar.

I would agree about the paper markets, though when all else about you are losing their heads, then is the time to make a profit. I see other people losing their heads and their money as opportunity.

gg

you are right about gold going up during recessions. I should have said during start of recession gold can go down together with other assets as there is a general sell-off but yeah as the recession goes on, money will generally find its way to gold as investors look for a safe haven.

Along this line of reasoning, given the 99% surety that we are in a global recession + hyperinflation => Stagflation. Isnt it a no brainer to be hoarding gold as the price dips with crashing markets, before everyone else tries to get it? I really dont see how the FED can dig its way out of both inflation and recession this time.

 

[againsthegrain]

Wonder where the money from digital gold is going

 

[Sean K]

Wonder where the money from digital gold is going

As in those who have just lost their shorts? Or, others on the side line waiting to deploy capital?

 

[againsthegrain]

As in those who have just lost their shorts? Or, others on the side line waiting to deploy capital?

The ones wearing jocks, I am sure some whales are still in the green desperately tumbling down the fire escape as the lift is out of order.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

you are right about gold going up during recessions. I should have said during start of recession gold can go down together with other assets as there is a general sell-off but yeah as the recession goes on, money will generally find its way to gold as investors look for a safe haven.

Along this line of reasoning, given the 99% surety that we are in a global recession + hyperinflation => Stagflation. Isnt it a no brainer to be hoarding gold as the price dips with crashing markets, before everyone else tries to get it? I really dont see how the FED can dig its way out of both inflation and recession this time.

Thanks @bluekelah

It depends on many fundamentals.

I believe it is a no-brainer and have been accumulating Gold. I did sell my gold stocks when the market in the US started turning against my liking.

Gold will appreciate if the war in Ukraine continues. It will be negative for Gold if one side wins decisively.

Gold will appreciate if the Republicans win the mid-term elections, as we are looking at having the Bronze Loon Trump back in power and every proud boy between Maine and Monterey shooting children in class.

Gold will appreciate in AUD as the USD strengthens, unless the Yuan becomes stronger as a possible global currency.

Inflation will get worse and I see no reason why rates won't reach 10-12% as people in the West are conditioned to spend by the televisions and the internets. So the economy won't grow, people will still spend and the government will stop printing money.

And I will hold Gold which in a year or two which I believe will be well over $AUD4500 per oz.

Oh and gold stocks, don't forget those, watch for an upturn but I don't believe myself it is yet.

gg

 

[Captain_Chaza]

With Due Respect gg

What is the use of GOLD?

ie: What is it good for?

Ie; Why would anybody want it?

There are so many other things I Want in Life Much More Than Gold!

 

[Captain_Chaza]

As in those who have just lost their shorts? Or, others on the side line waiting to deploy capital?

There was never ever Cash
No Cash!

 

[againsthegrain]

With Due Respect gg

What is the use of GOLD?

ie: What is it good for?

Ie; Why would anybody want it?

There are so many other things I Want in Life Much More Than Gold!

View attachment 142841

Nobody wants gold and money they just want the hookers happiness it buys

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

With Due Respect gg

What is the use of GOLD?

ie: What is it good for?

Ie; Why would anybody want it?

There are so many other things I Want in Life Much More Than Gold!

View attachment 142841

To quote Publilus Syrus, whom I am sure you have heard of.

"It may not be right but if it pays think it so."

"It is not every question that deserves an answer."

gg

 

[bluekelah]

Thanks @bluekelah

It depends on many fundamentals.

I believe it is a no-brainer and have been accumulating Gold. I did sell my gold stocks when the market in the US started turning against my liking.

Gold will appreciate if the war in Ukraine continues. It will be negative for Gold if one side wins decisively.

Gold will appreciate if the Republicans win the mid-term elections, as we are looking at having the Bronze Loon Trump back in power and every proud boy between Maine and Monterey shooting children in class.

Gold will appreciate in AUD as the USD strengthens, unless the Yuan becomes stronger as a possible global currency.

Inflation will get worse and I see no reason why rates won't reach 10-12% as people in the West are conditioned to spend by the televisions and the internets. So the economy won't grow, people will still spend and the government will stop printing money.

And I will hold Gold which in a year or two which I believe will be well over $AUD4500 per oz.

Oh and gold stocks, don't forget those, watch for an upturn but I don't believe myself it is yet.

gg

Great points. I have one thing to add regarding America. Their debt levels have hit ~30.5 Trillion this may 2022. Simple math says 10% rates means 3 trillion. 1 % rate hike means 300billion in interest repayments. FED is indicating they will be probably 2% by year end? thats 600billion interest bill for the treasury to pay!! and at 3% thats 900billion++!! With already a massive budget deficit, probably made worse now that they have to spend more to try cushion the coming big recession, I do not see how they can afford even a 5% rate hike.

On another note, i believe China is poised to take Taiwan soon, they have been ramping up military presence and look what the defence minister of china had to say at the recent Singapore meeting with USA over the weekend. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/12/world/asia/china-taiwan-us.html

I agree too, with coming recession, AUD being commodity based will see a selloff as the majors iron ore and coal should see a dip in prices due to demand destruction in a global recession. Gold in AUD will shoot up of course in such a situation.

In addition, we could see a new world order, where the Digital YUan could be the next world trade currency as china has massive gold reserves, probably enough to back their digital yuan. In fact, Russia has already switched from VISA to UnionPay , and from SWIFT to CIPS since being sanctioned. UnionPay is now already top for value transaction globally ahead of VISA and CIPS system is likely to gain more headway as many emerging countries try to have a backup/alternative banking system.

Disclaimer : I am a goldbug and own physical gold and my poor beaten down gold miners still lol...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Nobody wants gold and money they just want the hookers happiness it buys

gg

 

[bluekelah]

as I was just saying, Gold will follow markets down like in march 2020. SnP500 is down 3.7% now, and gold is down 2%, damn its gonna be a brutal week

 

[Telamelo]

With Due Respect gg

What is the use of GOLD?

ie: What is it good for?

Ie; Why would anybody want it?

There are so many other things I Want in Life Much More Than Gold!

View attachment 142841

as I was just saying, Gold will follow markets down like in march 2020. SnP500 is down 3.7% now, and gold is down 2%, damn its gonna be a brutal week

AUD Gold still at a relatively healthy $2,637