Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[DaveTrade]

If we get counter trend Top into the 30th May the three key price levels to watch are 1879 1882 and 1894 . After this point trend should continue down into the X June where main Low is indicated .

Hope this forecast works out, there are a lot of people waiting for the final low.

 

[rederob]

I have mapped a breakout area in the purple box, below. It's the region above POG's price as it broke above an earlier pennant formation, and we should have expected more follow through than we got:

Getting back into the purple patch is proving more difficult than most pundits forecast and, as you can see below, the recently more-favourable AUD denominated POG (orange line) has all but disappeared:

 

[Telamelo]

I have mapped a breakout area in the purple box, below. It's the region above POG's price as it broke above an earlier pennant formation, and we should have expected more follow through than we got:
View attachment 142339
Getting back into the purple patch is proving more difficult than most pundits forecast and, as you can see below, the recently more-favourable AUD denominated POG has all but disappeared:
View attachment 142343

Thanks for the charts.. Gold a "waiting game of patience" at the moment.
Cheers tela

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I have mapped a breakout area in the purple box, below. It's the region above POG's price as it broke above an earlier pennant formation, and we should have expected more follow through than we got:
View attachment 142339
Getting back into the purple patch is proving more difficult than most pundits forecast and, as you can see below, the recently more-favourable AUD denominated POG (orange line) has all but disappeared:
View attachment 142343

Thanks @rederob

I can see Gold paddling along in USD for a while longer, up a bit, down a bit, continuing this consolidation before a significant breakout above $US2200 with a base then for future "peace" and fiscal and monetary "stability" and "no covid nor pox" and the Chinese cousins deciding that hegemony is "yesterday" and the Pacific Islanders not "floating" above their palm trees, and, and ... at $US2000

Though for traders in Gold in AUD there is a real danger of significant losses from the strengthening AUD combined with low swings in Gold.

This would apply to Gold stocks as well with loss of time/production due to everything from supply chain to workers being gobbled up by coal producers before the Green Publican at AGL calls time with the ALP on the black gold.

For longer term investors in Gold however and those seeking insurance against an apparently cruel world, Gold is cheap imo both in USD and in AUD.

gg

 

[rederob]

Though for traders in Gold in AUD there is a real danger of significant losses from the strengthening AUD combined with low swings in Gold.

I agree on that point.
I was also surprised when I drew up the chart indexing AUD and USD denominated POG as the swings each month were significant.
As to the Green Publican, we need to look closely at mining costs and the diesel subsidy, because if that goes then our little Aussie battlers are going to need to spend a heck of a lot more to get gold out of stone. Or they could take the smart route and go electric with their mining fleets and source renewables plus storage for their energy needs.

(Do we need to change the sexist term "Brownie points" to greenie points?)

 

[mullokintyre]

The COT report from last week showed a big jump in long gold positions, up 5600 to a total of 122,000.
The short positions on the other hand, dropped by 12,000 contracts to 60,000.

That should be a little bullish for gold.
Mick

 

[signalFollower]

If IR are high,why not move to cash?
Gold after all is just a lump of metal and does not return anything.
The real issue is trust.
Trust in government and their fiat currencies.
I personally have lost that trust and so am a gold bull, but if the average punter is believing there is a good vs evil war in Ukraine, is lining up for his 4th covid shot and believe that he will solve CC by driving an EV as he is being told..then gold will fall or underperform.

this one also touches on the trust (or waining of it rather) in the USD as a driver for gold reserve demands (and therfor price) continuing

the visual is one thing, but the wording they put around it is equally interesting

https://elements.visualcapitalist.c...o0wrVQmLJ_FmEH8MTWZgfDLfHz6gapLOKDDcjFGiUnjug

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

this one also touches on the trust (or waining of it rather) in the USD as a driver for gold reserve demands (and therfor price) continuing

the visual is one thing, but the wording they put around it is equally interesting

https://elements.visualcapitalist.c...o0wrVQmLJ_FmEH8MTWZgfDLfHz6gapLOKDDcjFGiUnjug


View attachment 142354

Thanks @signalFollower .

Further, that is only the declared amount of gold held by central banks.

Governments are notorious liars, they are devious, untrustworthy and soiled with the blood of their young men in wars and their unfed poor.

Nobody and no government honestly states what their gold reserves are at any one time.

Except for the Canadians, who sold all theirs, and that I would believe as they are Canadians and pure as bloody snow.



gg

 

[mullokintyre]

this one also touches on the trust (or waining of it rather) in the USD as a driver for gold reserve demands (and therfor price) continuing

the visual is one thing, but the wording they put around it is equally interesting

https://elements.visualcapitalist.c...o0wrVQmLJ_FmEH8MTWZgfDLfHz6gapLOKDDcjFGiUnjug


View attachment 142354

Of course this does not include non CB holdings of gold.
India is a country where its citizens value personal holdings of gold, I have been told China is similar.
The Yanks could easily increase their reserve holdings by reprising the Roosevelt edicts from the 1930's.
Actually, i guess any government could do a Roosevelt should they feel so inclined.
Mick

 

[signalFollower]

agreed, we are in a period where the appetite for gold (and likely dilution of the dominance of the USD petrodollar) is playing out

yeah reading about the US govtmaking it illegal for citizens to hold beyond a certain amount of gold back in the day was interesting, my take out was that honesty didn't pay for the every day person there who would certainly have been better to keep their holdings illegally.

But as a barometer for non-CB demand, that's why I also look at data representative of the retail / investor end of the demand too, being this bullion backed ETPs data, which last week showed Gold as the only bullion holdings increasing accross the PMs

 

[Telamelo]

Gold price been so disappointing of late trading lower tonight @ US $1,827 equivalent to AUD $2,541

 

[eskys]

Gold is up $3tonight according to investing.com. Hope it goes up further more

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sometimes there is too much information, on different factors affecting the price of gold, POG.

War, famine, pestilence, plague, politicians, worldwide criminal enterprises, other financial sectors, and the poor of the world getting married faraway in India and China, all affect the supply, exchange and the POG.

How does a simpleton such as I make sense of all this living in Australia and holding Australian dollars to pay for food, shelter, cigars and champagne.

There are two questions.

• Should one hold Gold in a portfolio and how much.
• How does one value appropriately the POG given so many factors in the second para above.

There is no answer to the first question, it is personal preference. I run scared having been poor, but never destitute. Destitute is not good, I've witnessed it in others. It is too close to poor for me.

The second question makes money for hawkers of YouTube, financial pamphlets, TV programs and "professional" pundits. It is very confusing and as nobody can predict the future basically unanswerable.

I go on two factors.

• The vibe.
• The AUD/USD exchange rate.

As to the vibe. For some reason last month I felt concerned about the world, the markets, climate change and the muppets about me who make up that world, so I had to make the decision on whether to go to cash and buy a mansion (post the rate rise) some 500m. back from the beachfront without a seaview and await the rising tide so that I could end my days looking at the waves lapping upon the shore with steps down to a jetty and a small boat in which to fish from. I instead decided to increase my Gold holdings and do nothing else.

Gold is insurance, always has been. Crypto and even our markets could turn chaotic if our communications and IT fell apart. I am even on my Gold purchases so far but reckon that even with a downturn it will cost me less than insuring my house in percentage terms. Particularly as the AUD, I believe will not appreciate. Particularly if one looks at the AUD/USD chart over the last 10 years. Any kerfuffle and the Aussie drops.



gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Sometimes there is too much information, on different factors affecting the price of gold, POG.

Gold is insurance, always has been.

gg

That's gold. ?

 

[eskys]

I didn't know until now that gg and I have some things in common after all....I go with sentiment, by what I can see in order for me to make a judgement, not focused on inflation, interest rates, war etc . Where we differ is, I don't think gold is now a hedge

Sold NST this morning before leaving to deliver a meal. While on the road, I thought there's been a lot of noise around us and we can be easily distracted if we aren't focused on our work (ie trading, investing)

 

[eskys]

I accidentally posted the above without finishing my post...........so the rest goes....I don't want a mansion. I would like a small cottage by the river or near a river up north to retire, with a pontoon to watch the fish or catch them as a challenge (strange I should want to be near a river since we were recently flooded to the roof in the Northern Rivers recently)

 

[eskys]

The other thing I forgot to say is...........I don't have the amount of money gg has, no cigars, plenty of grog but I don't drink them

 

[divs4ever]

I accidentally posted the above without finishing my post...........so the rest goes....I don't want a mansion. I would like a small cottage by the river or near a river up north to retire, with a pontoon to watch the fish or catch them as a challenge (strange I should want to be near a river since we were recently flooded to the roof in the Northern Rivers recently)

maybe you really need a house-boat then

 

[divs4ever]

The other thing I forgot to say is...........I don't have the amount of money gg has, no cigars, plenty of grog but I don't drink them

grog can be trade-able in tough times , also STRONG spirits have other uses , for rural folk .

 

[eskys]

To keep on thread.....yes, divs, grog is gold, especially when a bottle fetches over $200,000! But no houseboats, thanks.