Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

I didn't know until now that gg and I have some things in common after all....I go with sentiment, by what I can see in order for me to make a judgement, not focused on inflation, interest rates, war etc . Where we differ is, I don't think gold is now a hedge

Sold NST this morning before leaving to deliver a meal. While on the road, I thought there's been a lot of noise around us and we can be easily distracted if we aren't focused on our work (ie trading, investing)

Thanks @eskys and all others for the kind response to my post from this morning.

I should point out that I have a different perspective on Gold stocks than Gold bar. I'm not all that familiar with trading/investing in NST so I'll use GOR vs PMGOLD.

I was heavily in to GOR last year and sold out six or eight weeks ago because Gold stocks are looking too far forward and are subject to the vagaries of mining, as well as POG they committed to and the present POG. They have past decisions and forward assumptions in their price.

So I switched to Gold bar as it is immediate and responsive to current events, and current events are changing very quickly, and as I said above Gold bar is a handy insurance, and cheap even if one is wrong.

gg

 

[signalFollower]

some interesting comments here and a Gold price prediction of $3000 USD by Jim Rickards

plus this is the article referred to in the screen grab

 

[eskys]

I thought about what you said about gold bars, gg. Thinking back to the early 80s when the Krugerrand was very popular (still very sought after these days) We bought some of those coins in our young green goose days, and at today's value, it's a fair bit now. Somehow, physical gold doesn't hold an attraction anymore. Have stopped buying them and the account with Perth Mint has been dormant for years.

A better hedge I feel, is top notch commercial properties where the national tenants pay all outgoings. With interest rates notching up, I will keep my eyes on real estate. Please don't read this as advice, it's not........it's something I will do, keep an eye on property market and maybe, just maybe, something will pop up.

Today, I sense a disquiet in the market, and once again, I've lost my way. When I descend into one of these moods, I can no longer think (perhaps the sense of foreboding was heightened by the webinar this morning conducted by one of the four pillars) Think I'll take time off and work at the warehouse tomorrow..........

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I thought about what you said about gold bars, gg. Thinking back to the early 80s when the Krugerrand was very popular (still very sought after these days) We bought some of those coins in our young green goose days, and at today's value, it's a fair bit now. Somehow, physical gold doesn't hold an attraction anymore. Have stopped buying them and the account with Perth Mint has been dormant for years.

A better hedge I feel, is top notch commercial properties where the national tenants pay all outgoings. With interest rates notching up, I will keep my eyes on real estate. Please don't read this as advice, it's not........it's something I will do, keep an eye on property market and maybe, just maybe, something will pop up.

Today, I sense a disquiet in the market, and once again, I've lost my way. When I descend into one of these moods, I can no longer think (perhaps the sense of foreboding was heightened by the webinar this morning conducted by one of the four pillars) Think I'll take time off and work at the warehouse tomorrow..........

It is interesting what you say re the market and I sold off a few of my SMSF "stayers but not great winners" today to release some money for the bargains to come.

I too feel uneasy, and if I had a lock-up or warehouse I'd work there tomorrow too.

As long as you are doing what you believe is correct given the available information, then "it is what it is".

It would not surprise me to see Gold bar go much, much higher. I would propose that you thought your Krugerrands were expensive in the 1980's. It is a beautiful coin.

Gold has been building up momentum. I guess commercial property depends on position, size and geographic location. I know many people in Townsville have been sitting on ComProp for 20 years going nowhere and others in Mackay just over 300 km. south of here have made a killing.

Anyways it is only money.

Unless the Russians stop drinking vodka and watching TV, Putin dies of whatever he has got, and the USA does not descend in to civil war in the next 5 years I cannot see Gold falling.

gg

ps. I might treat myself to a few Proof KR, now that you mention it. The Aussie should be a bit higher tonight.

gg

 

[eskys]

Gold unable to lift, every sector is in the red.

Going off thread......I wonder what sector of ComProp are those people in, gg? Like the market these days, sectors in Commercial properties need to chosen wisely....and length of tenancy, grade of tenants, rent turnover, depreciation etc...and as you mentioned, location

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold unable to lift, every sector is in the red.

Going off thread......I wonder what sector of ComProp are those people in, gg? Like the market these days, sectors in Commercial properties need to chosen wisely....and length of tenancy, grade of tenants, rent turnover, depreciation etc...and as you mentioned, location

Industrial, city fringes. Mining has sustained Mackay majorally over the last 20 years or so.

Re. Gold. Its wobbling around $US1945 quite a bit atm., up a bit, down a bit and the $AUD recovered a bit after falling yesterday.

If the POG goes up tonight and the Aussie falls tonight after the US inflation figures come out, I reckon it will be much higher on Monday at the open in AUD. Gold doesn't trade over the w/e.

Probably wishful thinking, but its a mad, mad World out there atm.

gg

 

[eskys]

Industrial, city fringes. Mining has sustained Mackay majorally over the last 20 years or so.

Re. Gold. Its wobbling around $US1945 quite a bit atm., up a bit, down a bit and the $AUD recovered a bit after falling yesterday.

If the POG goes up tonight and the Aussie falls tonight after the US inflation figures come out, I reckon it will be much higher on Monday at the open in AUD. Gold doesn't trade over the w/e.

Probably wishful thinking, but its a mad, mad World out there atm.

gg

How does that work? If gold goes up and Aussie falls, gold shares will go up on Monday?

Yes, a bit wobbly, but it's early night, anything can happen. We can hope and dream. After all, good things come from dreaming, don't they? All the best anyway, I need it too. (Holding EVN and NST again, against my better judgement)

New warehouses with offices attached appear to be the in thing these days....I wont go too deep, you may not like it...going off thread

 

[againsthegrain]

How does that work? If gold goes up and Aussie falls, gold shares will go up on Monday?

Yes, a bit wobbly, but it's early night, anything can happen. We can hope and dream. After all, good things come from dreaming, don't they? All the best anyway, I need it too. (Holding EVN and NST again, against my better judgement)

New warehouses with offices attached appear to be the in thing these days....I wont go too deep, you may not like it...going off thread

Probably because gold is valued in usd

 

[Telamelo]

Inflation running rampant in the US at +8%! triggered Dow to fall -800 pts

Gold shining at US $1,876 equating to AUD $2,657 +2.02%

 

[ducati916]

Gold unable to lift, every sector is in the red.

Going off thread......I wonder what sector of ComProp are those people in, gg? Like the market these days, sectors in Commercial properties need to chosen wisely....and length of tenancy, grade of tenants, rent turnover, depreciation etc...and as you mentioned, location

The issue at hand world-wide is the survival of fiat currencies.

As such, commercial property in a fiat collapse is almost worthless. Agrarian property is what you would ideally want to look at. It is productive in commodities that will retain value.

Food for thought.

jog on
duc

 

[rederob]

Updating my previous chart:
Average POG in 2022 to date is $1880.
Trend from March peak remains downward:

The "purple patch" is where POG has to remain if its to reach new highs.
Last night's US inflation data - over 8% - sent a signal to big money that they need a store of wealth that won't continue to burn value.
As @ducati suggests, get physical.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re. Gold. Its wobbling around $US1945 quite a bit atm., up a bit, down a bit and the $AUD recovered a bit after falling yesterday.

If the POG goes up tonight and the Aussie falls tonight after the US inflation figures come out, I reckon it will be much higher on Monday at the open in AUD. Gold doesn't trade over the w/e.

gg

@rederob

As I said just 12 hours ago the scene is set. I'd pull your "purple" patch bottom border down to support.

It bears an amazing resemblance to a Wyckoff pattern of accumulation and may presage the breaking of resistance lines at $US2000.

And soon.



gg

 

[rederob]

@rederob

As I said just 12 hours ago the scene is set. I'd pull your "purple" patch bottom border down to support.

It bears an amazing resemblance to a Wyckoff pattern of accumulation and may presage the breaking of resistance lines at $US2000.

And soon.

View attachment 142756

gg

If that's the case, we are at the gates of Phase D.
When I saw the gold bull signal emerge again in late 2019 I said from the outset we would be in for a bumpy ride.
That's the nature of POG as it has no single price driver at any particular point, and sheer sentiment creates some dramatic swings.
Cryptos undoubtedly took away a lot of gold's earlier gloss, and I suspect the "players" have powder dry to foster another fake run north.
One thing markets have proven time and again is that there is zero substitute for "value" and, in that regard, cryptos hold none - just an empty promise.

 

[eskys]

The issue at hand world-wide is the survival of fiat currencies.

As such, commercial property in a fiat collapse is almost worthless. Agrarian property is what you would ideally want to look at. It is productive in commodities that will retain value.

Food for thought.

jog on
duc

Hello ducati, food for thought indeed. I was thinking more in line about food related stocks, eg, Graincorp, Costa, Elders in this regard. Certainly hadn't thought about investing in farmland; certainly something worth thinking about, thank you

 

[signalFollower]

this is a great interview, it does go near Gold and the failing of the fiat currencies, pretty much predicting a significant break out in gold as more and more central banks look to sure up their balance sheets

certainly worth watching the whole thing

highlights:

• Comex is breaking as a paper only market to "manage" the price of precious metals (refer below chart on increased physical deeliveries)
• the USD is nearing the end of its Global Preferred Currency status
• Central Banks to continue to sure up balance sheets
• due to the coming commodities re-price, exposure via Junior mining sector is very attractive
• Can the US hold onto World Super Power status ?

 

[bk1]

DXY returning to highs.

 

[divs4ever]

How does that work? If gold goes up and Aussie falls, gold shares will go up on Monday?

Yes, a bit wobbly, but it's early night, anything can happen. We can hope and dream. After all, good things come from dreaming, don't they? All the best anyway, I need it too. (Holding EVN and NST again, against my better judgement)

New warehouses with offices attached appear to be the in thing these days....I wont go too deep, you may not like it...going off thread

the ASX isn't trading on Monday

 

[ducati916]

Hello ducati, food for thought indeed. I was thinking more in line about food related stocks, eg, Graincorp, Costa, Elders in this regard. Certainly hadn't thought about investing in farmland; certainly something worth thinking about, thank you

Taking it one step further, financial assets (stocks, bonds, derivatives, commodities) priced in fiat, also fall to zero. Clearly they retain value, but that value would need to be repriced in gold, silver, bitcoin, whatever. That is a risk that is assumed when buying/trading financial instruments.

Second, in a fiat crisis, it is a risk that bourses world-wide could be closed. Think WWI, Twin Towers.

I have recently, probably about a month ago, removed 90% of cash from various brokerages and put it into physical gold. I have been buying physical silver for about 18mths. on a weekly basis.

Trading is now simply with leverage (Options/Futures) so that the % returns are goosed on a far smaller capital base.

Today it is really all about: if you don't hold it, you don't own it.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

the ASX isn't trading on Monday

Well it should.

There is no holiday in Queensland nor Western Australia which contribute most to the wealth of of Australia, of all States and Territories.

What a shocker.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Was the spike in POG overnight a direct response to inflation numbers, or USD moves, or did they move at the same time?