Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[rederob]

Below is the linear regression trend from 2020, which is nicely positive:

Prior to last Friday, POG was stuck in a holding pattern for a month, and today - Easter Monday - shows an initial breakout.
As all we armchair quarterbacks (to borrow that American phrase) have prognosticated, a push into new record highs in coming months is decidedly likely.
More interesting is the long term regression, below, from December 2015's low:

 

[Telamelo]

Yes stackers have a saying if its not in your hands its not yours.

As I mentioned before physical gold is an insurance policy, and you can always augment that holding safely with big gold miners that have strong balance sheets. In the medium to long term, the miners will provide the cash flow/income and should SHTF in the short term u sleep easy as everyone else panics and rushes to gold pushing the price up 4x -5x , maybe even 10x this round given how anything that is hyped just goes to the moon nowadays.

Yes I am waiting for Elon buy a few billion worth of gold and metals secretly like he did the crypto, then start tweeting about how he wants a fair society with financials based on gold, or maybe he might talk about silver and how its the future of solar power and clean energy, Now that would be a nice 5x at least for silver, especially with all the bullion banks getting squeezed.

Way I see it, with inflation already upwards of 10%+++ in the "real world" / " main street" , cash is now almost trash, you can either go heavy cash short term and wait for the imminent stock crash once higher rates kick in, or you can park it in precious metals/commodities related assets and just watch the show

I wouldn't mind if Elon Musk got into/considered high grade Manganese as well lol (perhaps a stake in JMS would be ideal) towards enhancing Tesla & EV's when it comes to improved battery technology/capabilities etc.

AUD Gold price now $2,702

Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.com

Gold price in AUD (Australian Dollar). Historical chart and real-time quote (live price per gram, ounce, kilo) on the LBMA, yearly performance in Australian Dollar.

goldbroker.com

 

[bluekelah]

I wouldn't mind if Elon Musk got into/considered high grade Manganese as well lol (perhaps a stake in JMS would be ideal) towards enhancing Tesla & EV's when it comes to improved battery technology/capabilities etc.

AUD Gold price now $2,702

Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.com

Gold price in AUD (Australian Dollar). Historical chart and real-time quote (live price per gram, ounce, kilo) on the LBMA, yearly performance in Australian Dollar.

goldbroker.com

I dont think that would happen as Tesla doesnt really do their own batteries, its just an agreement of supply from panasonic. Other EV manufacturers have access to Panasonic batteries as well was what I read.

However Tesla does have the previously loss making insolvent Solar City on its books, which probably does use silver in solar panel production, (especially in those fancy solar panel roof tiles) , so its something they will need and be able to buy in large quantities and help their balance sheet with a twitter pump...

 

[rederob]

I dont think that would happen as Tesla doesnt really do their own batteries, its just an agreement of supply from panasonic. Other EV manufacturers have access to Panasonic batteries as well was what I read.

However Tesla does have the previously loss making insolvent Solar City on its books, which probably does use silver in solar panel production, (especially in those fancy solar panel roof tiles) , so its something they will need and be able to buy in large quantities and help their balance sheet with a twitter pump...

Tesla has been making batteries for four years, eg. their Powerwalls, but uses LG Chem, CATL and Panasonic batteries for their EVs.
But on topic, tho still with Elon, I get the impression he thinks of gold as "old fashioned" unless he can mine the asteroid Psyche 16 via SpaceX.
Anyway, the Hunt Bros stuffed-up cornering the silver market, so I don't think Musk has much chance with gold, seeing most is still locked away in Central Banks.
I haven't done the sums on silver and solar panels, but demand keeps increasing, so unless a lot is recovered in panel recycling then I image a fair amount of supply is presently disappearing in this product akin to how previously it was the case in film.

 

[Trader X]

Gold is a 'bond' that has infinite duration, infinite face value and 0% yield.
A 10s Treasury has a 10yr duration, fixed face value and currently a real (-5.67%) yield

A real yield calculation based on the current U.S. government CPI metric, a measurement deliberately skewed to underquote inflation, is of course going to understate reality. The real inflation rate in the U.S., calculated using 1990 methodology is now about 17%. So the real negative yield is closer to -16.5% against the current fed funds rate. Assuming the gold price is a hedge against a real inflation metric, the effective yield is much higher than 0%.

 

[DaveTrade]

Gold’s focus remains on oil, not yields


Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary: Gold, currently up around 7% so far this year, continues to perform strongly despite persistent headwinds from rising real yields and a stronger dollar. Instead the yellow metal has increasingly been focusing on multiple uncertainties, some of which were already present before Russia invaded Ukraine. Inflation and growth concerns have both been turbocharged by war and sanctions, and together with elevated volatility in stocks and not least bonds, these developments have seen investors increasingly look for safe havens in tangible assets such as investment metals.

Impressive, is the word best describing gold’s performance so far this year. Currently up around 7% during a time where normal drivers such as US real yields and the dollar have risen, normally a development that would see gold struggle. The prospect of aggressive tightening by the US Federal Reserve has driven ten-year real yields higher by more than 1% while supporting a near 4% rise in the dollar against a broad index of currencies.

Last year’s relatively weak performance, especially against the dollar, despite emerging inflationary concerns was driven by portfolio managers cutting back on the holdings they accumulated during 2020 as stock markets rallied and bond yields held relatively steady, thereby reducing the need for diversification. Fast forward to 2022 and we are now dealing with multiple uncertainties, some of which were already present before Russia invaded Ukraine. Inflation and growth concerns have both been turbocharged by war and sanctions, and together with elevated volatility in bonds and not least stocks, investors have sought safe havens in tangible assets such as investment metals.

During the past year, gold and ten-year real yields have struggled to follow their usual inverse paths, and the dislocation accelerated further during Q1 when gold increasingly managed to ignore rising yields. At current levels gold is theoretically overvalued by around 300 dollars, and highlights a major shift in focus.



The net reduction in bullion-backed ETFs that was seen throughout last year came to halt in late December, and since then total holdings have risen by 282 tons to 3325 tons. During the same time leveraged funds, primarily operating in the futures market, given the ability to trade lots valued at $195,000 for a margin of less than $8,000, have been much more dependent on the directional movements in the market. Following the March 8 failed attempt to reach a fresh record high they spent the following weeks scaling back exposure. An exercise that was not completed until the week of April 12 when they returned as net buyers, thereby aligning them with the mentioned ongoing demand for ETFs.



While inflation was something we talked about last year, the actual impact of sharply higher prices of everything is now increasingly being felt across the world. In response to this investors are increasingly waking up to the fact that the good years which delivered strong equity returns and stable yields are over. Instead the need to become more defensive has set in and these changes together with the risk of what Russia, a pariah nation to much of the world now, may do next if the war fails to yield the desired result.

Instead of real yields, we have increasingly seen gold take some its directional input from crude oil, a development that makes perfect sense. The ebb and flow of the oil price impacts inflation through refined products such as diesel and gasoline while its strength or weakness also tell us something about the level of geopolitical risks in the system.



In our recently published Quarterly Outlook we highlight the reasons why we see gold move higher and reach a fresh record high later this year.

 

[qldfrog]

really like the Gold vs oil graph.Quite telling

 

[DaveTrade]

really like the Gold vs oil graph.Quite telling

I'll put up daily, weekly and monthly charts of this to get a more comprehensive look at it;

 

[bluekelah]

I'll put up daily, weekly and monthly charts of this to get a more comprehensive look at it;

View attachment 140655
View attachment 140656
View attachment 140657

both are trading in tandem as possibly the new safe haven , inflation hedging assets Smart money is now most short all other sectors but going into gold, oil and commodities. Look at how Bill Ackman cut his twitter losses , 400million, gosh

 

[ducati916]

I'll put up daily, weekly and monthly charts of this to get a more comprehensive look at it;

View attachment 140655
View attachment 140656
View attachment 140657

Even longer term:



jog on
duc

 

[Telamelo]

US market's nose dived overnight finishing deep in the red.. however AUD Gold price finished @ $2,668 +0.74%

 

[wayneL]

US market's nose dived overnight finishing deep in the red.. however AUD Gold price finished @ $2,668 +0.74%

Yeah, because AUD is reminiscing about the forest scenes in Deliverance.

 

[finicky]

After 20 years of upset expectations I don't usually see the point of discussing short term moves in the gold price but BtL's mention of down to US$1900 as a level of interest is reached the night of the day he posted his vid! Maybe I should pull a couple of bids (STN, OZM)
And Palladium, wow, CHN and DEV tomorrow presumably?

 

[divs4ever]

the gold price is used to give me hints of a low gold stock price ( on something i would like to accumulate )

 

[divs4ever]

Palladium sheds nearly 13% on worries over China demand hit

Palladium sheds nearly 13% on worries over China demand hit By Reuters

Palladium sheds nearly 13% on worries over China demand hit

www.investing.com

i suppose this raises the question , is China reducing ICE vehicle manufacture ( or maybe just abandoning emission control systems on local vehicles ) or buying more Palladium direct from Russia , avoiding Western market systems

 

[Cam019]

XAU/USD

 

[DaveTrade]

 

[Telamelo]

Gold monthly chart since 1975 till now (watch from 25:25 onwards)

 

[divs4ever]

well the 'gold price' is totally manipulated ( unless you are buying those shiny ingots/coins and putting them in your pocket and taking them home ) and the BIG players are likely to have leveraged their ( gold ) stock holdings , so could possibly be squeezed

remember the US dollar is losing influence they are going have to manipulate like there is no tomorrow , to make the dollar look relevant

good luck

( i am CAREFULLY accumulating gold stocks as the opportunities arrive , but NOT using leverage )

 

[Ann]

View attachment 140890

That is a very interesting chart Dave, I had a look at it for fun on Stockcharts using gold colour for gold and black for oil. In the few days since you posted this, there appears to be a divergence, oil going up gold going down. Very interesting comparison



Having looked at what the ETFs were doing then I decided to see what the POO and POG looked like together. There is still this current divergence but here the POG looks as though it may be chasing the POO. Very, very interesting, thanks Dave!