Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold remains rangebound.

It would not surprise me to see a whiplash either way, down towards $USD 1800 or up to $USD 2100.

These are nice spots to be contrarian and take small profits or buy long from the convicted. I say that not in relation to Eddie, Moses and Ian at Cooma who I am told by the Prison Visitors Committee here at the hotel are ASF members but people with fixed ideas on the direction of Gold.

Long term, which these days is 2 weeks + , Gold is on the up.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I must admit that I like price channels.

Enclosed is a chart of PMGOLD, an easy avenue for those in Australia without a shovel nor a large run to buy and bury gold.

The RSI also often

often precedes a change in price movement as is demonstrated in October 2021, January and February 2022.



gg

 

[Ann]

Yes I look for developing patterns as well but I don't like to let myself give them too much weight in my mind at first, as they develop they become more significant for me. I've found that when I call them too early I'm too often wrong. From your writing above it would seem that you feel the same but don't care too much about calling them early anyway. Maybe some time in the future I'll be able to say to you 'good call'.

I am not looking for recognition for a good call, it is about being forewarned of a potential outcome. If I see something early I can be looking out for a potential outcome earlier or delay investment until the coast is clear. I am currently avoiding buying any gold or silver stocks or ETFs until the rising wedge has resolved, either by a failed pattern or by resolving downwards out of the rising wedge. It comes down to capital protection, not kudos or otherwise for a chart call.

 

[wayneL]

I am not looking for recognition for a good call, it is about being forewarned of a potential outcome. If I see something early I can be looking out for a potential outcome earlier or delay investment until the coast is clear. I am currently avoiding buying any gold or silver stocks or ETFs until the rising wedge has resolved, either by a failed pattern or by resolving downwards out of the rising wedge. It comes down to capital protection, not kudos or otherwise for a chart call.

I'm looking for a gold/silver wipeout from extraneous events.

In fact I'm looking for an everything wipeout from blow-up of the bond market.

Just dunno when.

 

[DaveTrade]

I am currently avoiding buying any gold or silver stocks or ETFs until the rising wedge has resolved

I think that your logic is sound, I'm just a bit different in that I like to run a bit closer to the market and trade in and out of shorter moves. So I'm watching to see when gold breaks out from the current sideways movement and I'll trade that move and still be watching as the bigger picture forms. The comment about 'good call' was just a bit of tongue and cheek, I know from your postings that you take your trading seriously.

 

[Ann]

I think that your logic is sound, I'm just a bit different in that I like to run a bit closer to the market and trade in and out of shorter moves. So I'm watching to see when gold breaks out from the current sideways movement and I'll trade that move and still be watching as the bigger picture forms. The comment about 'good call' was just a bit of tongue and cheek, I know from your postings that you take your trading seriously.

Yes, short term trading relies very little on longer-term views, it can be a hint but not a reason to avoid trading, unlike my time scale, I prefer to be in something for as long a time as possible, preferably in the green.

I'm looking for a gold/silver wipeout from extraneous events.

In fact I'm looking for an everything wipeout from blow-up of the bond market.

Just dunno when.

I am absolutely no good at guessing the future, I just let the charts tell me what I should be doing and where I should be buying.
Talking about bonds, I watch the ETF PLUS on a daily basis and am really surprised at the long and consistent fall in the price. I am waiting for a reversal, if not then I think bonds may be really a lost cause for the time being. Not that I buy them these days, they were something I bought as a teenager. However, if they look tempting enough I might hop into PLUS or some such.

 

[DaveTrade]

GLD is still trading sideways but so far holding above the 50 day SMA and that important support zone, all my directional indicators are mixed. All I can do is encapsulate the recent price action between trend lines to highlight the contracting sideways price action. Maybe tonight's session will help to point to the next direction.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Well it looks as if Gold will be going on a tear next week.

Deja vu, all over again, as we say at the hotel.

Onwards and upwards.



gg

 

[rederob]

Well it looks as if Gold will be going on a tear next week.

Deja vu, all over again, as we say at the hotel.

Onwards and upwards.

What a crazy market we are in!
Despite the fact that POG is trading above its post GFC peak of 2011, gold producers are still languishing. Based on POG's previous history Newcrest, as an example, should be trading above $45/share and rising strongly in a bull market.
Equally the case for POO, albeit POO is just trading at a comparatively high price but lower than its 2008 peak. Woodside as an example would have hit $50/share a while back and still be trading around $45/share despite recent weakness.
Neither NCM nor WPL are anywhere near the previous highs, and would need to add another 30% minimum to their present prices to be comparably placed.

Then I looked at base metals. Same story to a degree in that near record high prices are only marginally affecting share prices. S32 seems to be the exception but that's probably because it also has coking coal in its mix.

I get the impression that punters are exceptionally cautious with anything that has to come out of the ground, and prefer to risk more money on banks and typically less volatile market segments. What's silly, if that is the case, is that most segments are prone to cyclical trends. And its the minerals sector that typically goes through the roof when it takes off.

Gold can be a bit weirder though because, as @ducati916's 12 million charts show, there is often no rhyme nor reason to its sharp movements up or down when in a bull market trend. It's a case of knowing there is a trend, and "holding on." Active traders will have been in and out many times, but that's never been me as that way I don't worry about regrets in missing buying or selling opportunities during the journey.

 

[Tyre Kicker]

I have to agree Rob. One would feel that the miners so still have a long way to run. Gold shares have been a little underwhelming tbh. Wondering if WPL has a cap on its sp due to the deal with BHP. But with oil at $100 I am surprised WPL is not sitting at $36+ by now.

 

[rederob]

Just to clarify where we are now:

 

[ducati916]

What a crazy market we are in!
Despite the fact that POG is trading above its post GFC peak of 2011, gold producers are still languishing. Based on POG's previous history Newcrest, as an example, should be trading above $45/share and rising strongly in a bull market.
Equally the case for POO, albeit POO is just trading at a comparatively high price but lower than its 2008 peak. Woodside as an example would have hit $50/share a while back and still be trading around $45/share despite recent weakness.
Neither NCM nor WPL are anywhere near the previous highs, and would need to add another 30% minimum to their present prices to be comparably placed.

Then I looked at base metals. Same story to a degree in that near record high prices are only marginally affecting share prices. S32 seems to be the exception but that's probably because it also has coking coal in its mix.

I get the impression that punters are exceptionally cautious with anything that has to come out of the ground, and prefer to risk more money on banks and typically less volatile market segments. What's silly, if that is the case, is that most segments are prone to cyclical trends. And its the minerals sector that typically goes through the roof when it takes off.

Gold can be a bit weirder though because, as @ducati916's 12 million charts show, there is often no rhyme nor reason to its sharp movements up or down when in a bull market trend. It's a case of knowing there is a trend, and "holding on." Active traders will have been in and out many times, but that's never been me as that way I don't worry about regrets in missing buying or selling opportunities during the journey.

The 'reason' for golds rather haphazard progress is that gold is front and centre in the 'financial war' that is raging (primarily) between China, Russia, India, Iran, Turkey and (primarily) the US.

At stake is DXY hegemony and (ultimate) control of the world reserve currency.

The US financial system is using every art it possesses to suppress the monetary metals. Once it fails, and it will with a high probability fail, the move higher will be explosive.

Trading in and out, if you are out at the time, will mean that you miss the move.

jog on
duc

 

[mullokintyre]

I think that is fair comment. The market still hasn't come to a consensus on whether there is to be a secular inflation or a deflationary recession (depression).

The historical record demonstrates the flippe-floppe nature of gold vis-a-vis investors. Interest rates, nominal and real. Fed tightening cycles and effects thereof and war.

View attachment 140029View attachment 140025View attachment 140034View attachment 140030View attachment 140031View attachment 140032

In addition we have the Ruble backed by gold, which will play havoc with DXY valuations in gold

View attachment 140028

Plenty for gold to digest.

Ultimately, gold wins in either scenario, inflation/deflation, it matters not.

jog on
duc

Thanks for the detail you have been putting in duc, but can I make a request that you label what the charts are showing.
Some are obvious, others are not.
Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It would appear that it is not just ASF Gold mavens who are bullish on Gold.

From Ole S Hansen, Head of commodity trading at Saxo Bank, via Twitter today.



Monday should be interesting as Sydney is first off the mark.

gg

 

[Sean K]

I wonder how much inflation price is factored into gold. Might be the difference between a break up or down. There's still a war premium loaded on I think, but not much.

Gold price to focus on new decades-high inflation numbers next week - analysts

www.kitco.com

 

[Telamelo]

Gold looks bullish now at US $1,960 equivalent to AUD Gold $2,633 as we speak.

Cheers tela

 

[Sean K]

US POG tracking sideways for a bit, needs to break one way or the other. Will a surprise on interest rates one way or the other do it?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold looks bullish now at US $1,960 equivalent to AUD Gold $2,633 as we speak.

Cheers tela

I would hope to see $USD1940 as the new floor for POG, as that is what Putin's Ruble/Oil play has fixed it at according to the Gold experts.

Onwards and upwards.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

An update from kitco.com.

Goldman Sachs is tipping POG to hit $USD 2500 this year.



gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Quite and interesting 3 days on Gold and some stats on it's progress since 200o.

From Kitco.com



gg