Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

Quite and interesting 3 days on Gold and some stats on it's progress since 200o.

From Kitco.com

View attachment 140392

gg

Breaking through the 1960 level makes me think the bias is short term up, but with so much volatility due to the geopolitics it's anyone's guess.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Breaking through the 1960 level makes me think the bias is short term up, but with so much volatility due to the geopolitics it's anyone's guess.

I'd agree @Sean K .

$1940-$1980 is the range these past few days.

Some are talking of $2500 this year.

Who knows. I'm in and riding it.

gg

 

[explod]

Looking good to break the US$2000 soon IMHO

 

[bluekelah]

Inflation reading was 8.5% last night, Fed is starting to s**t their pants. Its a repeat of 1970s again, here we go to 10% rates and 5K
POG.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

If anyone has a better plan than this let me know.




gg

 

[Telamelo]

Aussie Gold price crept a little higher overnight to AUD $2,661 .. as we await another overnight US market session on Monday night before our ASX market opens up on Tuesday morning.

I think Monday night we could see Gold breach US $2,000+ is my gut feeling.

Cheers tela

 

[bluekelah]

Aussie Gold price crept a little higher overnight to AUD $2,661 .. as we await another overnight US market session on Monday night before our ASX market opens up on Tuesday morning.

I think Monday night we could see Gold breach US $2,000+ is my gut feeling.

Cheers tela

possible as theres increase in global tensions with the Russian ship destroyed and finland wanting to join nato, Russia is saying for them to be prepared for nukes to be nearer to them if they do. Oil price may go back to $120+ again as well.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just some thoughts.

I'm swimming in various forms of the yellow metal.

For those new to Gold, just work out if you are a long term or a short term holder.

Gold can be volatile and like other trading assets, if you are a short termer, what is your aim, 5%,10%,20% gain?

For Gold to go up 20% you are looking atm at POG of just under $USD 2400.

If it does get there do you have the discipline to sell and take a profit, and not be afraid to buy back in at $2450 if it looks like going higher.

What is your stop loss?

If you are a long termer, do you have a stop loss e.g $1600 and the discipline to take a loss, and buy back in above $1700 ?

Or are you a set and forget investor? ( Do you have enough years left on this mortal coil to see it run through another cycle ?? )

gg

 

[DaveTrade]

Just some thoughts.

Some wise words for traders still trying to find their way.

 

[Telamelo]

Gold chart update/analysis from 22:45 onwards.. looks bullish!

 

[bluekelah]

Just some thoughts.

I'm swimming in various forms of the yellow metal.

For those new to Gold, just work out if you are a long term or a short term holder.

Gold can be volatile and like other trading assets, if you are a short termer, what is your aim, 5%,10%,20% gain?

For Gold to go up 20% you are looking atm at POG of just under $USD 2400.

If it does get there do you have the discipline to sell and take a profit, and not be afraid to buy back in at $2450 if it looks like going higher.

What is your stop loss?

If you are a long termer, do you have a stop loss e.g $1600 and the discipline to take a loss, and buy back in above $1700 ?

Or are you a set and forget investor? ( Do you have enough years left on this mortal coil to see it run through another cycle ?? )

gg

For me gold is an insurance policy against inflation and fiat monetary policy. Used to have 5% allocated but have up exposure to physical and mining stocks to 10%plus now with some silver in the mix. Mining stocks pay a dividend so it allows me to hold the physical which doesnt generate any income. Recently I have added some oil/energy/food related commodity stocks as well as I believe these are a good inflation hedge in the short term, and over long term they provide good dividend income anyways.

POG has done a run late 2019/2020 to reflect precovid monetary inflation. I Believe the current run up to reflect the trillions fed printed in 2021 might not be completely priced in yet, as there is no "Panic" in the general retail investor space to load up on gold yet.

pretty sure we are gonna see a supercycle for gold similar to the early 70s and late 70s where gold went up 4x-5x each time and there was stagflation. This time round may not be exactly the same but history tends to repeat and we do have the ingredients already with a massive rise in M2 money supply past couple years causing the ever increasing inflation today and likely for another year, plus a FED that HAS to really at some point, raise rates quickly to match the current 8.5% inflation which will crash markets causing stagflation similar to 1970s.

Worse case world moves on to a new reserve currency and USA defaults causing financial chaos and a big reset that some are talking about.

 

[rederob]

Way too early to suggest a post-Easter trend is in place, but the Easter Bunny has delivered:

 

[Sean K]

Gold breaking through and holding above the $1960 mark looks positive. Could attack the ATHs again during this push. Downside support zone across $1900/10 ish looks pretty good. Still a war premium cooked into the price perhaps? If it turns good, which looks unlikely, will probably drop quite a bit. But, if the war gets nastier and spreads could be a significant spike. Not sure what will happen if Russia start selling their gold to fund the war effort. Will probably be at a discount.

 

[Tyre Kicker]

Inflation has to be providing a decent push to acquire gold.

Surely.

 

[bluekelah]

It's all about the big picture for me guys. Over Easter Russia has taken Mariupol, Zelensky is still defiant, Russia has warned US against sending weapons, Russia has warned finland about nuclear proliferation should they join NATO, etc.. etc.. Massive 8.5% inflation which was "transitory" but has now become "supply chain" and "war" and "yield curve not moving up yet", still trying to find excuses. LOL.. Its 1970s all over again I reckon, for australia possibly 1980s recession again. We also have new petrodollar with the BRICS/SAUDIs hashing it out.

Nowhere safer/better than Gold at the moment. FED cannot do more than 2% rates anyway as US debt is 30trillion. Thats 600billion interest vs a 2.8trillion budget deficit ROFL.. doesnt take a math genius to see how that works out.

Russia has no issue escalating the war now as they have lotsa gold to back the rouble. Gold funds wars, always has and Russia has plenty.

look at the 1970s POG chart, 40 to 180 then back to 120 then back to 600+ late 70s. Stagflations here to stay for a while..

 

[ducati916]

Gold is breaking an important correlation:



Gold is a 'bond' that has infinite duration, infinite face value and 0% yield.
A 10s Treasury has a 10yr duration, fixed face value and currently a real (-5.67%) yield

Which has broken the normal 'inverse' correlation.

When gold rises with yields, that is a very strong signal to be long gold.

jog on
duc

 

[wayneL]

Gold is breaking an important correlation:

View attachment 140522

Gold is a 'bond' that has infinite duration, infinite face value and 0% yield.
A 10s Treasury has a 10yr duration, fixed face value and currently a real (-5.67%) yield

Which has broken the normal 'inverse' correlation.

When gold rises with yields, that is a very strong signal to be long gold.

jog on
duc

Once I heard that gold is like a zero-coupon bond with zero maturity, a few light bulbs starting going on for me.

Additionally there is the cost of production and minimum value analysis for all commodities that that I usually use.

Upside vs downside analysis to me says that there is a ton more upside than downside

 

[divs4ever]

Once I heard that gold is like a zero-coupon bond with zero maturity, a few light bulbs starting going on for me.

Additionally there is the cost of production and minimum value analysis for all commodities that that I usually use.

Upside vs downside analysis to me says that there is a ton more upside than downside

yes but physical gold held at home ( by yourself ) has negligible risk of default , , is less likely to become completely worthless , i would guess you could always exchange it for something physical ( even if possession was made illegal )

bonds rely on TRUST ( especially sovereign bonds ) given some some sovereign bonds are trading at negative nominal rates ( and many more at negative real rates ) currently , even physically held base metals ( like zinc, aluminum , copper , etc ) offer a better deal than bonds ( assuming you have storage space for them )

 

[ducati916]

yes but physical gold held at home ( by yourself ) has negligible risk of default , , is less likely to become completely worthless , i would guess you could always exchange it for something physical ( even if possession was made illegal )

bonds rely on TRUST ( especially sovereign bonds ) given some some sovereign bonds are trading at negative nominal rates ( and many more at negative real rates ) currently , even physically held base metals ( like zinc, aluminum , copper , etc ) offer a better deal than bonds ( assuming you have storage space for them )

Correct: gold is nobodies liability, unlike a bond which is the issuer's liability (your asset). So there is zero counter-party risk with gold. A bond will always have counter-party risk.

With the advent of 'blockchain' gold also does now have a yield. Of course, by hypothecating your gold, for a yield, you assume counter-party risk vis-a-vis return of the gold + interest.

jog on
duc

 

[bluekelah]

Correct: gold is nobodies liability, unlike a bond which is the issuer's liability (your asset). So there is zero counter-party risk with gold. A bond will always have counter-party risk.

With the advent of 'blockchain' gold also does now have a yield. Of course, by hypothecating your gold, for a yield, you assume counter-party risk vis-a-vis return of the gold + interest.

jog on
duc

Yes stackers have a saying if its not in your hands its not yours.

As I mentioned before physical gold is an insurance policy, and you can always augment that holding safely with big gold miners that have strong balance sheets. In the medium to long term, the miners will provide the cash flow/income and should SHTF in the short term u sleep easy as everyone else panics and rushes to gold pushing the price up 4x -5x , maybe even 10x this round given how anything that is hyped just goes to the moon nowadays.

Yes I am waiting for Elon buy a few billion worth of gold and metals secretly like he did the crypto, then start tweeting about how he wants a fair society with financials based on gold, or maybe he might talk about silver and how its the future of solar power and clean energy. Hey guys you can now buy your new CYBERTRUCK with GOLD/SILVER! Now that would be a nice 5x at least for silver, especially with all the bullion banks getting squeezed.

Way I see it, with inflation already upwards of 10%+++ in the "real world" / " main street" , cash is now almost trash, you can either go heavy cash short term and wait for the imminent stock crash once higher rates kick in then buy in, or you can park it in precious metals/commodities related assets and just watch the show