Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

I would say that once the 30 day passes the 6 mo. gain , Gold will get a further run up. We are not yet 36 hours in to this weeks trading and many bugs watch the Kitco chart.



gg

 

[Telamelo]

Our AUD Gold price is now $2,799
( Yep seems $3K Gold here we come !!! )

 

[DannyB0000]

Gold up 2.45 % in North America trade. Should be an excellent day for gold shares today. GO GOLD!!! ???

 

[explod]

Yep gold futures in all time high territory and silver up over 5% tonight

 

[Sean K]

Stopped and retreated from ATH, as you'd expect. Will be interesting to see what happens if the war suddenly stops. Not sure how much of a premium is factored in. $100??

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Stopped and retreated from ATH, as you'd expect. Will be interesting to see what happens if the war suddenly stops. Not sure how much of a premium is factored in. $100??

View attachment 138817

Short term $USD2020 will provide support.

Gold will not gallop to $USD3000 but gradually saunter there, unless Bitcoin drops below $36000 convincingly when it will go ballistic.

I say that because in the old days a significant support for Gold was from those whom I call "Madmen" ( no disrespect to the ladies and etc etc .. ) who provided momentum during wars to push Gold higher. They now trade BTC.

It is time for the Madmen to return to the Gold fold.

gg

 

[rederob]

Is POG overstretched?
No, it's overbought.
As seen below, the regression trend from 20 August 2018's low has a lot more headroom for POG. Also, strong bull runs like the one now typically far exceed the trend high bar. In fact, if we repeated the August 2020 breach in coming weeks then we arrive above $2300:

 

[CityIndex]

Despite pulling back slight, the longer-term trend indicates that there is still significant upside potential for gold. With geopolitical tensions, and now stagflation/recession concerns, likely to continue weighing on risky-assets, there is scope for demand to hold at the current levels with gold acting as a hedge against inflation, volatility, as well as the war in Ukraine. If price can break the August 2020 high, it could put 2200 in sight.

Of course, it's important to remember that all trading carries risk, and any news to support risk-appetite in the market over the coming days could see gold prices retreat rapidly on profit taking and rotation out of safe-havens.

 

[ducati916]

Physical demand out of the COMEX is breaking the paper stranglehold that the BB have used to suppress the price of silver more than gold. Both are moving despite daily tamps of paper.



jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

POG had to have a break at some point. Going parabolic was unhealthy. Needs some consolidation around here to set up for the next move higher. Should be some support at 1950 now but still has plenty of room to stabilise above the 1850 breakout area.

 

[rederob]

US Dollar's tumble overnight drags down POG to the tune of $95 in 36 hours:

Nothing like a bit of volatility to keep the price action alive.
Anyone thinking that this frenzy won't continue?
While the war in Ukraine rages expect the unexpected.

 

[ducati916]

Nothing really unexpected, ran pretty hard to the upside:



Should find some support tomorrow after another decline. Won't be as brutal as today's, but will shake latecomers and weak hands or over-leveraged trades out of the developing trend.

* I should add, the US CPI print is due tomorrow. Needless to say it will be ugly. Possibly double digits.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

BTD?

 

[Sean K]

Rick Rule rules PMs and uranium.

Rick Rule: How likely is WW3? Here's why Gold price will triple over the next 5 years

www.kitco.com

 

[ducati916]

Further evidence of the tightness in the physical markets:



The EFP positions are growing. JPM had to ship I think 500 tonnes to meet EFP requirements. This is going to badly break down at some point.

For those not familiar with EFP:

An exchange of futures for physical (EFP) is a private agreement between two parties to trade a futures position for the basket of underlying actuals. An exchange of futures for physicals can be used to open a futures position, close a futures position, or switch a futures position for the underlying asset. EFP is calculated as a function of: The number of days between spot and futures delivery, taking into account interest and transport costs.

Due to the (still) enormous disconnect between physical and paper, those buying the available paper contracts that then undertaking an EFP, blows the market up when physical is in short supply, as it is currently.

You can see that the last time that it happened, which was far smaller, what happened to price.

China is most likely behind the move. Ft Knox had better hope they have a legit 8000 tonnes, they will need every Kg very soon.

jog on
duc

 

[Telamelo]

Decent correction in US Gold overnight nudging $1,960 before recovering to $1,990 as we speak.. our AUD Gold trading higher at $2,723 so bullish trend still in tact imo

Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.com

Gold price in AUD (Australian Dollar). Historical chart and real-time quote (live price per gram, ounce, kilo) on the LBMA, yearly performance in Australian Dollar.

goldbroker.com

 

[Sean K]

One of the outliers with gold is what Russia is going to do to prop up their economy when the reality of sanctions really kick in. One of their options was selling gold, which they've been heavily buying over the past couple of years, just for this event. If they can't sell their gold - even to China, they are double toasted.

Not exactly sure what effect this will have on POG.

Exactly where is Russia's physical gold held?

If China takes it at a discount, I assume that could lower the price?

Not sure.

Putin has a pot of gold. Republicans and Democrats want to take it away​

By Matt Egan, CNN Business

March 11, 2022

The West is already crushing Russia's economy. Now a bipartisan group of lawmakers want to limit Vladimir Putin's access to Russia's mountain of gold.

A bipartisan bill introduced this week aims to ramp up the financial pressure another notch by making it harder for Moscow to use gold to prop up the crashing ruble. Existing sanctions have not directly targeted the Central Bank of Russia's roughly $130 billion in gold reserves.
"This would tighten the financial noose," Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, told CNN in a phone interview.

The bill, introduced by King, Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn, Tennessee Republican Bill Hagerty and New Hampshire Democrat Maggie Hassan, would impose secondary sanctions on any American entities that knowingly transact with or transport gold from Russia's central bank holdings. It would similarly penalize American entities that sell gold physically or electronically in Russia.

"We are proposing to cut off one more avenue and increase the financial pressure to get them to stop this brutal campaign in Ukraine," said King, who praised the varying political backgrounds of the bill's sponsors. "You've never seen such a bipartisan bill."

Cornyn, in a statement this week, said the sanctions would target parties that "help Russia finance their war by buying or selling this blood gold."

 

[mullokintyre]

One of the outliers with gold is what Russia is going to do to prop up their economy when the reality of sanctions really kick in. One of their options was selling gold, which they've been heavily buying over the past couple of years, just for this event. If they can't sell their gold - even to China, they are double toasted.

Not exactly sure what effect this will have on POG.

Exactly where is Russia's physical gold held?

If China takes it at a discount, I assume that could lower the price?

Not sure.

Putin has a pot of gold. Republicans and Democrats want to take it away​

View attachment 138994
By Matt Egan, CNN Business

March 11, 2022

The West is already crushing Russia's economy. Now a bipartisan group of lawmakers want to limit Vladimir Putin's access to Russia's mountain of gold.

A bipartisan bill introduced this week aims to ramp up the financial pressure another notch by making it harder for Moscow to use gold to prop up the crashing ruble. Existing sanctions have not directly targeted the Central Bank of Russia's roughly $130 billion in gold reserves.
"This would tighten the financial noose," Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, told CNN in a phone interview.

The bill, introduced by King, Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn, Tennessee Republican Bill Hagerty and New Hampshire Democrat Maggie Hassan, would impose secondary sanctions on any American entities that knowingly transact with or transport gold from Russia's central bank holdings. It would similarly penalize American entities that sell gold physically or electronically in Russia.

"We are proposing to cut off one more avenue and increase the financial pressure to get them to stop this brutal campaign in Ukraine," said King, who praised the varying political backgrounds of the bill's sponsors. "You've never seen such a bipartisan bill."

Cornyn, in a statement this week, said the sanctions would target parties that "help Russia finance their war by buying or selling this blood gold."

There would be some buyers for the gold, Middle Eastern states like Saudi Arabia, China, but not many others would have the readies to pay for bulk anounts of gold.
Assuming Russia decides to sell its gold, and it finds a buyer, what will that buyer pay for the gold with?
If they sell it to China, what would they do with the Renmimbi?
It basically restricts them to trading with China.
And if they did sell the gold, how would they transport it? Would it be FOB or FOB Destination?
They are more likely to sell oil to China, China would not be at all worried about sanctions from Western Countries, and no one, not even the stupid hawks in America would be foolish to try to blockade or intercept Chinese oil tankers.
They will still get the Renmimbi, but can keep the gold as a last resort.
Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

One of the outliers with gold is what Russia is going to do to prop up their economy when the reality of sanctions really kick in. One of their options was selling gold, which they've been heavily buying over the past couple of years, just for this event. If they can't sell their gold - even to China, they are double toasted.

Not exactly sure what effect this will have on POG.

Exactly where is Russia's physical gold held?

If China takes it at a discount, I assume that could lower the price?

Not sure.

Putin has a pot of gold. Republicans and Democrats want to take it away​

View attachment 138994
By Matt Egan, CNN Business

March 11, 2022

The West is already crushing Russia's economy. Now a bipartisan group of lawmakers want to limit Vladimir Putin's access to Russia's mountain of gold.

A bipartisan bill introduced this week aims to ramp up the financial pressure another notch by making it harder for Moscow to use gold to prop up the crashing ruble. Existing sanctions have not directly targeted the Central Bank of Russia's roughly $130 billion in gold reserves.
"This would tighten the financial noose," Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, told CNN in a phone interview.

The bill, introduced by King, Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn, Tennessee Republican Bill Hagerty and New Hampshire Democrat Maggie Hassan, would impose secondary sanctions on any American entities that knowingly transact with or transport gold from Russia's central bank holdings. It would similarly penalize American entities that sell gold physically or electronically in Russia.

"We are proposing to cut off one more avenue and increase the financial pressure to get them to stop this brutal campaign in Ukraine," said King, who praised the varying political backgrounds of the bill's sponsors. "You've never seen such a bipartisan bill."

Cornyn, in a statement this week, said the sanctions would target parties that "help Russia finance their war by buying or selling this blood gold."

A very good scenario exercise.

Putin’s gold is in Russia and is not going to move out imo. Why? Because it is worth more as a reserve and to show that Putin is a “man of respect” in the global Mafia.

Crypto will be his currency.

Already the American authorities are refusing to cut off the Crypto houses access to Moscow. Why? The elite donors to both the Democrats and Republicans got in to Crypto too late to get out even.

Money flows and dirty money flows seamlessly.

I’ll buy Gold at AUD $2669 oz. any old day of the week if I can. It will rise and fall greatly though.

gg

 

[ducati916]

A very good scenario exercise.

Putin’s gold is in Russia and is not going to move out imo. Why? Because it is worth more as a reserve and to show that Putin is a “man of respect” in the global Mafia.

Crypto will be his currency.

Already the American authorities are refusing to cut off the Crypto houses access to Moscow. Why? The elite donors to both the Democrats and Republicans got in to Crypto too late to get out even.

Money flows and dirty money flows seamlessly.

I’ll buy Gold at AUD $2669 oz. any old day of the week if I can. It will rise and fall greatly though.

gg

There is a fundamental shift taking place from 'inside money' or Central Bank money, which has been a Treasury Bill standard to 'outside money' which is always necessarily underpinned by collateral, which (are) commodities.

Mr Putin has been cut off from inside money.
Mr Putin has plenty of commodities.

He will not sell gold.
He will sell his commodities for gold.

Hence, gold reprices.
Look at the supporters of Mr Putin: the Arabs are part of that bloc. They are and will continue to refuse to pump more oil. I see Sen. Rubino is talking about sanctioning China. LOL. Cretin.

The gold market for physical delivery is starting to break down. Blocking Russian miners for good delivery has just accelerated that problem. At this rate BAC is going to collapse. They are getting eaten alive on their silver short also.

jog on
duc