Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[DaveTrade]

Update of the weekly GLD chart;

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've unrolled some of my Gold.

It may fall to $USD1900, I'll be looking closely if it stabilises at $AUD2640 but it may descend further than that.

To $USD1800.

The quick war spike has frittered out and unless markets worldwide tank, Gold will stabilise a little lower than present prices imo.

gg

 

[DaveTrade]

Looking at the GLD daily chart, it can be seen that gold has found some support at the 177-179 zone. You can see volume pick up over the last two days from buyers coming in at this level. The retracement down to this level corresponds to a 0.618 pullback. If we get follow-through to the upside tonight then this would be a good re-entry point, I'll see what happens tonight;

 

[rederob]

Looking at the GLD daily chart, it can be seen that gold has found some support at the 177-179 zone. You can see volume pick up over the last two days from buyers coming in at this level. The retracement down to this level corresponds to a 0.618 pullback. If we get follow-through to the upside tonight then this would be a good re-entry point, I'll see what happens tonight;

You got your re-entry point!

Having just posted a chart on WTI it was interesting to note the strong positive correlation in movements of POG to POO in calendar 2022, although in percentage terms POO is the bigger winner.
The chart above highlights pivot prices, which were somewhat rangebound until mid-February. Additionally from the above it's crystal clear that prices ran ahead too rapidly in the first week of March, and the necessary correction occurred. The trend's lower boundary was not breached and we again look set for POG's bull trend to carry through.

 

[CityIndex]

Now that the central bank meetings are out of the way, the market's focus will likely go back to the war in Ukraine, with peace talks showing little sign of progress, tensions between the US and Russia on the rise.

All trading carries risk, but with the US house now also voting to end regular trading relation with Russia, gold and oil could look to resume their intense rally. Either way, should be very interesting to watch how markets react now.

 

[DaveTrade]

GLD gapped up to open but sold off to close near the low of the day, SLV did the same. Both markets with low volume for the day. GLD couldn't close above the 50% time and price FIB (dotted blue line) and SLV closed below old resistance from the 12/11/21 top.
I'm seeing continued short-term strength in equities and continued strength in the Australian dollar, these things make me pause at entering here. Even if GLD does go straight up from here so will the Aus$, the dollar conversion will be working against me so I'll wait.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

An ouchie recent few days for Gold.

London selling it down again.

It may fall further.



gg

 

[Sean K]

An ouchie recent few days for Gold.

London selling it down again.

It may fall further.

View attachment 139348

gg

I think it’s the war premium coming off. Was at least $100 baked in. Hoping it holds above $1900-1850 to consolidate after the break up. Conditions making things pretty volatile atm. Hopefully it doesn’t get worse.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I think it’s the war premium coming off. Was at least $100 baked in. Hoping it holds above $1900-1850 to consolidate after the break up. Conditions making things pretty volatile atm. Hopefully it doesn’t get worse.

My guess would be that Gold will drift back down to $USD1800 when with our appreciating AUD it will be quite tasty again.

POO and POI will go up, I suspect, and Gold won't be a goer gain until they stabilise at new highs for the last 12mo.

And to paraphrase those on The Spectrum who say on other forums, and it is creeping in here DDYOR, "Don't Do Your Own Research"

gg

 

[rederob]

My guess would be that Gold will drift back down to $USD1800 when with our appreciating AUD it will be quite tasty again.

POO and POI will go up, I suspect, and Gold won't be a goer gain until they stabilise at new highs for the last 12mo.

And to paraphrase those on The Spectrum who say on other forums, and it is creeping in here DDYOR, "Don't Do Your Own Research"

gg

The 4 month trend is still positive and TSI is heading north again.
TSI seldom stays under "0" for long when the short term trend is positive:

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The 4 month trend is still positive and TSI is heading north again.
TSI seldom stays under "0" for long when the short term trend is positive:
View attachment 139353

Thanks @rederob .

I don't use the TSI and had to look it up. So it's used similar to an RSI , is that correct, diverging from consolidating price ?

Can you throw a 6 mo chart of gold up with a TSI when you get a chance please.

DDYOR. in fact DEDYOR and EYG.

gg

 

[rederob]

Thanks @rederob .

I don't use the TSI and had to look it up. So it's used similar to an RSI , is that correct, diverging from consolidating price ?

Can you throw a 6 mo chart of gold up with a TSI when you get a chance please.

DDYOR. in fact DEDYOR and EYG.

gg

Here's the 6 month trend on a 4 hourly chart:

I prefer to use a TSI "signal" length of a 50 period EMA (red line) as I find it a better/cleaner indicator of confirmation (ie where lines cross) of a changing trend.
Currently POG is oversold with a favourable, albeit weak, uptrend.
Pricewise it its close to its median, with immediate downward to sideways more probable.
My tea leaf reading of the chart suggests a resumption of uptrend by week's end.

 

[DaveTrade]

GLD is still holding between the 50% time&price FIB and the 177-179 support zone, rejecting each when the price gets near. To me it looks to be in a holding pattern, I'm waiting for a break either way with a some volume coming in;



Sometimes in order to see a market more clearly I will step back a bit and take a fresh look at the bigger picture. If we look at a three day chart of GLD it's easy to see the market has come down and paused at the support zone;

 

[Sean K]

GLD is still holding between the 50% time&price FIB and the 177-179 support zone, rejecting each when the price gets near. To me it looks to be in a holding pattern, I'm waiting for a break either way with a some volume coming in;

View attachment 139373

Sometimes in order to see a market more clearly I will step back a bit and take a fresh look at the bigger picture. If we look at a three day chart of GLD it's easy to see the market has come down and paused at the support zone;

View attachment 139374

Looks like a C&H could possibly be going to form on this chart on the long term C&H which is interesting.

 

[Ann]

Looks like a C&H could possibly be going to form on this chart on the long term C&H which is interesting.

Many years ago, a very wise trader named Mazda6 told me to be cautious of cups with handles, they often break off! I never forget good advice, or who gave it to me.

I would be a bit cautious this may fall a tad below a handle percentage with such a massive volume spike at the high point. I would expect far more downside before we see a rise, perhaps even below the 200dmas? I don't know but I am waiting for gold to retest the 200mas before entering. May just be me and I am often wrong.

 

[Sean K]

Many years ago, a very wise trader named Mazda6 told me to be cautious of cups with handles, they often break off! I never forget good advice, or who gave it to me.

I would be a bit cautious this may fall a tad below a handle percentage with such a massive volume spike at the high point. I would expect far more downside before we see a rise, perhaps even below the 200dmas? I don't know but I am waiting for gold to retest the 200mas before entering. May just be me and I am often wrong.

View attachment 139391

I‘m extremely cautious about any TA. It’s only good till it fails which could be the majority of the time. It’s recognising failure and managing exits that’s probably more important. I’m **** at both.

(I‘m not sure why schit gets buffed out Joe. That’s not a swear word these days is it?)

 

[Ann]

I‘m extremely cautious about any TA. It’s only good till it fails which could be the majority of the time. It’s recognising failure and managing exits that’s probably more important. I’m **** at both.

(I‘m not sure why schit gets buffed out Joe. That’s not a swear word these days is it?)

Yeah, TA is great until it isn't, much like fundamentals which are fabulous until TA is better!

 

[rederob]

My tea leaf reading of the chart suggests a resumption of uptrend by week's end.

Must have been green tea!

Immediate trend suggests a bit of weakening over coming hours, but overall bullish going forward.

 

[ducati916]

Gold and Silver are THE most manipulated markets in the world. TA is almost worthless as a way to really understand these markets.

So this is JPM moving from SLV to their vault 38M ounces in preparation for settlement of delivery:



This is the OI at 158,000 contracts:




Each contract is 5000oz.

Now many will close, net out, roll forward. However, those that stand for delivery cannot exceed that 38M oz without (a) defaulting or (b) JPM shifting more physical.

The March contract in gold had all manner of shenanigans going on. There was a 'technical' default that JPM managed to hide with the aid of BAC.

JPM have been fined billions of dollars for 'painting the tape' and outright manipulations.

The game blows up when they can no longer meet the demand for physical, which is growing daily.

Very bullish gold/silver.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold and Silver are THE most manipulated markets in the world. TA is almost worthless as a way to really understand these markets.

So this is JPM moving from SLV to their vault 38M ounces in preparation for settlement of delivery:

View attachment 139428

This is the OI at 158,000 contracts:

View attachment 139429


Each contract is 5000oz.

Now many will close, net out, roll forward. However, those that stand for delivery cannot exceed that 38M oz without (a) defaulting or (b) JPM shifting more physical.

The March contract in gold had all manner of shenanigans going on. There was a 'technical' default that JPM managed to hide with the aid of BAC.

JPM have been fined billions of dollars for 'painting the tape' and outright manipulations.

The game blows up when they can no longer meet the demand for physical, which is growing daily.

Very bullish gold/silver.

jog on
duc

Thanks duc.

A welcome wake up call.

I’m greedy and waiting for POG to get closer to $AUD2500 but may grab above that.

I still am amazed at near daily sell off in Londongrad whether POG rising or falling.



Any reason and/or way of profit from this living in Australia?

gg