Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[rederob]

Gold and Silver are THE most manipulated markets in the world. TA is almost worthless as a way to really understand these markets.

All their manipulation does is is lead to chart outliers.
Between these outlying prices are many other actors who are driving an overall trend.
JPM for example has no influence on bond rates, and can only react in anticipation of or after a change. Other actors are in the same boat.
Central banks are are also big players in POG's manipulation.

While TA doesn't explain ANY market, it's still a handy tool for us mug punters. All the fundamentals tell us is who, where and how much gold is being produced, and who is buying it; and that's not a great deal of help... unless there is an unambiguous picture of supply and demand. Wherein lies the problem. Unlike every other metal mined, most gold is kept as is and locked away. It has to maintain its role as a store of value, otherwise mining it serves just a few practical purposes.

 

[wayneL]

For what it's worth my opinion on technical analysis as someone who has used for nearly 20 years.

As a tool for actually predicting price movements, nearly useless.

As a tool for creating trading boundaries, risk/reward and eexpectany scenarios; useful.

I'll be honest and admit that I pretty much suck at fundamental analysis and that has a lot to do with my individual psychology with regards to how things are valued. A lot of valuations just don't damn well make sense to me. (Apart from what I call minimum valuations in the commodity markets which has served me very well)

But.... It is this which makes me both a successful punter on the horses and a successful technical analysis. I don't have to understand anything except expectancy...

As far as the precious metals markets are concerned though, it's like buying real estate. Forget technical analysis and just keep buying at value.

IMVHO

 

[DaveTrade]

As far as the precious metals markets are concerned though, it's like buying real estate. Forget technical analysis and just keep buying at value.

I think that this is a good place to buy GLD;

 

[wayneL]

I think that this is a good place to buy GLD;
View attachment 139449

I don't disagree and am continuing to add small parcels from time to time.

My core position was at a little bit over $1,200, but haven't really figured out what the new base value is for gold.

Maybe somewhere around $1,500 and if it gets turned around there I'm checking all my dry powder in and buying with my ears back.

 

[rederob]

Immediate trend suggests a bit of weakening over coming hours, but overall bullish going forward.

And today the immediate action suggests a slight reversal of the short-term downtrend, after a rise of 1% overnight:

We have lost a bit of the recent price volatility, and again reverted to the "stairs up" pattern that has characterised POG's bull run in recent years - a bit like Snakes and Ladders.

 

[Cam019]

Each to their own GG. But, have a look at the USD/JPY vs XAU/USD. I don't know about you, but I see a strong negative correlation.

Plus, I'm bullish on the USD/JPY. So either the USD/JPY and XAU/USD are going to move out of their inverse correlation into lockstep for the first time in well.. forever, or in my opinion their correlation will hold and we will see weakness in the XAU/USD.

Also take a look at the Yen Futures vs. the USD/JPY. Almost a -1.0 correlation here and nothing looks bullish in regards to the Yen Futs.

Bullish USD/JPY. Bearish Yen Futs and XAU/USD.

I have been reading this thread and there is so much confusion (at least for me) regarding everything that is going on regarding economic and geopolitical uncertainty, market manipulation, etc, etc.

When really, all your answers are in the charts.

In a previous post which I have quoted above I said I was:

Bullish USD/JPY. Bearish Yen Futs and XAU/USD.

USD/JPY

Yen Futures

XAU/USD

Now why say all this?

Is it because I'm Harry Potter and I can predict every market move. No.
Is it because I think I'm better than anyone else. No.
Is it because it's a public holiday where I am and I don't have to go to work this morning. No.

I have simply learnt so much from this website over the last 7-8 years from so many wonderful people willing to share their experiences and their trading - and now I'm sharing mine.

I used to think I had to be across a markets fundamentals, indicators, global macro expectations, what day of the week it was, what treats my dogs wanted for the day - basically all this stuff that doesn't even matter for the purpose of profiting from financial markets.

All that information, all the fear and greed, all the emotions of market participants, all the expectations of the composite man are already built into one thing - price.

In the words of @Modest - It's in the chart.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I reckon the poms in Londongrad will sell it off this evening.

I finally realised why G gets sold off there most days.

The Russian Oligarchs own the markets there and they are selling in to any strength.

gg

 

[DaveTrade]

GLD hit the 183-183.5 resistance zone and backed off but it's holding above 50% FIB line so I'm still bullish. It will need some volume coming in to push through the resistance zone. The next level of interest above that is the gap around 187.5 (unmarked on the chart).

 

[Sean K]

Looks like some pretty good support formed here.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I reckon Gold will be at $AUD2500 early this week, if not this evening when the Pomigarchs sell it off in Londongrad.



gg

 

[rederob]

Volatility remains high, and that was the correction we had to have:

Support is around $1870, so lots of toe space to fill before a bullish trend resumption.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Volatility remains high, and that was the correction we had to have:
View attachment 139623
Support is around $1870, so lots of toe space to fill before a bullish trend resumption.

I would like to think that you are correct.

Unfortunately my gut tells me it will be a 1-2-3 correction with 1=3.

Which brings us down to $USD1800 and an excellent entry point.

gg

 

[wayneL]

I reckon the heathens at JP Morgan push it down further.

They play their game, we play our game.

 

[qldfrog]

I reckon the heathens at JP Morgan push it down further.

They play their game, we play our game.

But i see that as an opportunity to get a bit more at each deadline they manipulate.
Think about it: they push billions to lower the prices artificially: just say thanks for the subsidy ?

 

[ducati916]

I reckon the heathens at JP Morgan push it down further.

They play their game, we play our game.

They just can't keep it down for any length of time.



The amount of paper gold they use is exposing them to serious losses if they lose control of it.

jog on
duc

 

[rederob]

They just can't keep it down for any length of time.

Because as Sir Garpal says, there are really good buying opportunities on the dips. Imagine anyone a few years back saying that $1800/oz was a good buying opportunity. Men with white coats would help you into one that was armless and drug you out of such delusions!

I am looking forward to the day where alchemists reign supreme, and we all express delight as paper turns into gold. It will surely be magic.

 

[ducati916]

Taking a big picture viewpoint:

The environment that we are in currently is a structural and secular inflation. The last period that mimics this is the 1970's.



The powers that be tried to fight it, causing fluctuating rates of inflation.

Gold followed those fluctuations:



Compare that with our more recent travels to a highly inflationary environment:



jog on
duc

 

[DaveTrade]

They just can't keep it down for any length of time.

Agree that the big picture looks good but right at this moment GLD is going down, but the question is, how far? Last night GLD has reacted to the 177-179 support zone, closing up for the session but I don't think it's going straight up from here. I'll looking for confirmation of a turn back up.



In this next chart I'm doing a measured move type of analysis because I like to do this type of thing and then compare what the market is actually doing which gives another indication of the strength of the market.

 

[Iron Triangle]

The AU debt roughy 1.5 trillion & US debt is 32 trillion , interest rates cannot go up much despite all the talk as the debt will be impossible to repay, this means inflation will keep rising and rising so how is it that gold is dropping in price ? i bought in @ $2663 an ounce thinking it would go to $3500 this year.

 

[Sean K]

The AU debt roughy 1.5 trillion & US debt is 32 trillion , interest rates cannot go up much despite all the talk as the debt will be impossible to repay, this means inflation will keep rising and rising so how is it that gold is dropping in price ? i bought in @ $2663 an ounce thinking it would go to $3500 this year.

Yes, seems like it's just a matter of when not if.

JP Morgan spoofing hard.