Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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At this point I'm still not convinced that Gold will go straight up from here, I'm looking to see if more general sideways movement or a final leg down may come into play. I've just received another Gann video that talks about two paths forward from here, see below;

CLICK TO WATCH
 
well that depends if you suspect a major correction (crash )

currently there is a LOT of liquidity to hold the global economy together but there is reduced underlying productivity to support the expenditure , SOMETHING has to move , eventually . ( the US dollar could just implode , pushing all major commodities into orbit , but i don't think that will happen , like that)

if a major correction , gold should drop as leveraged positions are closed , followed by gold buying ( but i am betting access to the physical metal will be impeded )

so the question is how much of the gold positions are unleveraged ( and the holders are not heavily leveraged elsewhere )
 
divs4ever said:
well that depends if you suspect a major correction (crash )

currently there is a LOT of liquidity to hold the global economy together but there is reduced underlying productivity to support the expenditure , SOMETHING has to move , eventually . ( the US dollar could just implode , pushing all major commodities into orbit , but i don't think that will happen , like that)

if a major correction , gold should drop as leveraged positions are closed , followed by gold buying ( but i am betting access to the physical metal will be impeded )

so the question is how much of the gold positions are unleveraged ( and the holders are not heavily leveraged elsewhere )
Click to expand...
I used to think the same.
When the crunch came in Feb courtesy of the Covid scare, I fully expected gold shares to up as a defensive measure.
As we all saw, gold shares got crunched along with everything else. People just wanted to get back into cash. Especially those who were leveraged to get those shares in the first place.
So I expect it to happen again.
If and when the "the Big Correction" comes, gold stocks will also get crunched along with everything else as "investors" gather up their cash.
I look forward to this correction with great enthusiasm, as I am sitting on a pile of cash waiting to buy when blood is flowing in the streets. (methaphorically speaking of course).
Mick
 
i worked that out by studying the GFC in literature , because i was WAY too busy elsewhere to take much notice of the GFC ( or news ) and then went back to earlier events , and worked out MOST times everything went to cash ( preferably US dollars ) and then started joining the dots .

HOWEVER , IF you are under no selling pressure , and have SOME cash reserves ( i am NOT going to 100% cash if i can help it ) you can cherry-pick the opportunities

in 2020 i did OK , but really there were just too many places to look for the buying spree .. but i did get SOME even had a little cash afterwards , but maybe i could have done better

PS a shopping list , is much better than enthusiasm maybe on a white board , because several that were on my 2020 list , are rated 'probably avoid ' now after mediocre attempts to recover from 2020 ( and it isn't all about the profits for me , some just did nutty things , haven't tried to make smart changes etc etc )

so that list could change weekly

i would NEVER had thought i would buy KSL or ZIM last year but have in the last 3 months

ALSO in a REAL crash , watch out some banks don't try to limit withdrawals , to prevent a run on deposits ( and TDs )

cheers

remember ( quality ) gold stocks cheap can be a good thing , inflation is natural , but GOLD is lifeless and inert , nature moves around gold

BTW i see the price of gold as the inverse of the US dollar ( it is the real spending power of the US dollar going down )
 
mullokintyre said:
I used to think the same.
When the crunch came in Feb courtesy of the Covid scare, I fully expected gold shares to up as a defensive measure.
As we all saw, gold shares got crunched along with everything else. People just wanted to get back into cash. Especially those who were leveraged to get those shares in the first place.
So I expect it to happen again.
If and when the "the Big Correction" comes, gold stocks will also get crunched along with everything else as "investors" gather up their cash.
I look forward to this correction with great enthusiasm, as I am sitting on a pile of cash waiting to buy when blood is flowing in the streets. (methaphorically speaking of course).
Mick
Click to expand...
I’m also waiting for the opportunity.
I do monthly/quarterly reviews of my portfolio, and historically in my birthday, just because, and last year on 19 Feb I went from 95% shares to 60% as I was feeling ‘uncomfortable’. I added all back in May/June/July.
On 1st August this year I again went to 60% shares and 40% cash because I didn’t want to lose my nice gains. I also need cash for other projects. My YTD is 20% and I am very happy with that, and if I am at this level on 1/1/22, then that’s fine. I certainly don’t want to be at a lower level than I am today by the end of the year.
If there is a drop, I’ll only start dripping in if the drop reaches 25%. I don’t think little 5%, 10%, 15% drops would constitute a real correction. Remember the market came back pretty quickly last year.
IMO we need a good drop to clear things out, and then the resulting rise I hope would be nice and slow and steady.
Gunnerguy
 
Here is an update from James Flanagan, I like the way he talks about what the market participants sometimes do and how to see this in the price action. He is always interesting to watch, hope you enjoy;

CLICK TO WATCH
 
On price momentum alone POG is equivocating, although hit an inflection point last week suggesting a continuation to the upside:
1630479413591.png
BTW, the starting point for the above trend window was May 1972, and captures all price action since 2013.
Marrying the above with a time-based perspective, POG has risen through a $150 range since 9 August, so that's a big plus:
1630479775736.png
With inflation the only alternative for central banks to rein in debt over coming years, precious metals are likely to be strong outperformers given previous experience.
 
PM's crunched overnight (again!).
Just when you think there is a bit of momentum on the upside, the nasties come in and down she goes.

Wonder how long they can keep this up?
Probably until the USD is overtaken by China's Renmimbi. the Euro, Bitcoin, a basket mix of real and digital currencies, or something else unheard of replaces it.
Mick
 
  • Gold Roadmap out till November :
    There are two Dates where Low could come in which are indicated on the two Curves . The first scenario is price could drop into the 24th September then Main trend is indicated up till the 9th November which could turn out to be Top so the duration of upside on this model is around 45 days with past Cycles pointing towards an increase of around 6 1/2% into this Date .Curve No 2 drawn in red indicates that the second scenario could be Low into either Friday 1st or Monday 4th October and then main trend up till around the 9th November the same period on both Curves so I will be watching very closely to see if price moves down and forms Low into either one of those dates and if there is any price Geometry to confirm this pattern . So to confirm the Cycle we require A Low into those Dates and once the position of the market has been confirmed we could be looking at a significant move to the upside of around 6 1/2% in magnitude .
    The second set of Curves outline the possible Minor swing points between point A – B . There are a few points that I was unable to calculate but my strategy in regards to these Minor Swing points would be to position yourself in the direction of the prevailing trend which is pointing up towards the 9th November so those Minor swing points could either come in as Minor Top or Minor Low so it would be prudent if some of those minor swing points aligned with a counter trend Low and the next price bar opened higher you could position yourself in the prevailing direction of the trend but be very careful if they set up as Tops as our main plan is to ride the trend up and we are looking for signals to enter long so I would be very selective and wait and see if any of those dates turn out to be counter trend low and then you could enter on the next bar higher with stop management in place .
    The projected Low of September 23rd could be a significant point as it is 45 Deg out from the 9th August Low marking 1/2 of the important 90 Deg Cycle and is also about 6 days past the 90 Deg Cycle so with these two points aligning it could turn out to be a significant zone to watch.
 

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www.investing.com

Fed Watch: Scrambling To Cope With Not-So-Transitory Inflation | Investing.com

Market Overview Analysis by Investing.com (Darrell Delamaide) covering: . Read Investing.com (Darrell Delamaide)'s latest article on Investing.com
www.investing.com

excerpt:
Even more telling, the forecast rate for core PCE inflation in 2022 was 2.3%, compared to 2.1% projected in June and 1.8% in September 2020, when the FOMC members blithely ignored the longer-term impact of supply-chain disruptions. It is a fair bet that December projections will be even a notch higher.

The projected median Fed funds rate for next year was raised to 0.3% from 0.1%, and 1.0% in 2023, compared with forecasts a year ago of the benchmark rate remaining at 0.1% through 2023.
 
Looking at the big picture on Gold, if it holds above the 0.382 retracement level then it's showing strength in the context of the monthly time frame.
1634092259855.png

Zooming in to a weekly chart it can be seen that at the moment it's moving sideways showing no directional bias but key support is just below at the 158 level.
1634092555063.png
 
question
on an anecdotal basis, you know how we look for news that fits a top, does this fit a bottom :

www.reuters.com

EXCLUSIVE Banks prepare to scrap LME gold and silver contracts, sources say

A group of banks that partnered with the London Metal Exchange (LME) to launch gold and silver futures in 2017 is preparing to abandon the project after hoped-for volumes did not materialise, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

xbU9vTKw_bigger.jpg
Reuters Business
@ReutersBiz
Exclusive: A group of banks that partnered with the London Metal Exchange to launch gold and silver futures in 2017 is preparing to abandon the project after hoped-for volumes did not materialize, sources say
 

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