Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

Food?
Especially pet food:

Touché

gg

 

[rederob]

Gold is currently over-extended and due for a pullback after a strong run over the month:

 

[rederob]

A month ago I played with Elliott Wave counts.
Here's my take on what has happened since then:

Irrespective of any technical mistakes above, POG has remained true to its bullishness.
My hope is that in the next month I can add to some gold equities using the "Buy" signal pattern described over recent weeks. However, unless the TSI is "below the line" then I will let what I hold continue to ride the bull.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

A month ago I played with Elliott Wave counts.
Here's my take on what has happened since then:

Irrespective of any technical mistakes above, POG has remained true to its bullishness.
My hope is that in the next month I can add to some gold equities using the "Buy" signal pattern described over recent weeks. However, unless the TSI is "below the line" then I will let what I hold continue to ride the bull.

Thanks @rederob .

You are on the button with this chart. Excellent analysis and plan.

gg

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

 

[IFocus]

A month ago I played with Elliott Wave counts.
Here's my take on what has happened since then:

Irrespective of any technical mistakes above, POG has remained true to its bullishness.
My hope is that in the next month I can add to some gold equities using the "Buy" signal pattern described over recent weeks. However, unless the TSI is "below the line" then I will let what I hold continue to ride the bull.

A quick look at the wave count on your chart wave 5 is wave 3 and at the bottom of wave 3 is wave 2 that fits with the law of alternation, waves 3 and 4 cannot be lower than wave 1......having said that others here will know better.

Either way solid uptrend.

 

[explod]

In my view over the years gold (and silver) has been very manipulated. However with the uncertainties of the market and the imposition of massive debts to hold things together the cat is now getting out of the bag and the commercial shorts burning.

There are moves to back the Euro with gold and the huge recent acquisition of gold by China would indicate they will too.

We are hitting an all time high (In fact we are over it on the MONTHY chart US) And the Aussie has been well above it for some months now.

Charts are one thing but I look harder at the fundamentals. Sentiment is next and that is only just hitting general news. In my view gold will soon take peoples breath away and really shoot up.

Just my 12 pence so DYOR

Oh, and twelve pence was an old shilling (now 10 cents), now worth upwards of $5 today

 

[rederob]

A quick look at the wave count on your chart wave 5 is wave 3 and at the bottom of wave 3 is wave 2 that fits with the law of alternation, waves 3 and 4 cannot be lower than wave 1......having said that others here will know better.

Either way solid uptrend.

The basics only require that from 1 to 2 is lower, 2 to 3 higher, 3 to 4 lower, and 4 to 5 higher, all within a continuing trend.
Other people with expertise are most welcome to comment.
I found the exercise tricky given that there were 12 subwaves before the high at wave 1 was topped; in other words, a long period of consolidation.
I countered that issue by the fact that although there were not higher highs, there were higher lows.

My chart reference source has been Goldcharts and I know different companies have different closing prices. That said, according to my reference source yesterday's closing price of $1900.60 was the highest ever, beating the 5 September 2011 price by exactly one dollar.
The next record to beat is 6 September's intraday high of $1920.94.
So now we are off to the races!

 

[tinhat]

Gold is touching upon all time highs. It might want to retrace from here. It might want to move sideways with a few false starts at breaking over US$1900. It might keep rocketing up. Regardless it will keep movin up over the medium term IMHO. It's not so much that gold is going up but that the $USD is going down. I can't see what is going to stop the $USD from depreciating over the medium term. If anyone has contrary views about the $USD then I would be interested to hear.

 

[Telamelo]

Only a matter of time Gold will hit US$2000 imo and along with that Silver rocketing higher (perhaps next silver short-term price target US$26 imo) as currently around US$23.

Cheers tela

 

[NoFOMO]

I produce my own data sheets using the CBOE options gamma data, same data that feeds all of the indicators you find on publice/paid platforms.
Instead of looking at individual stocks, ETFs or futures I collate heavily option traded ones from a sector, weight them on volume and come up with much clearer(for the experienced) entry signal for myself. Exit is a personal decision driven by my trade size, account health and specific instrument.

Red GLD, this is a US ETF of bullion
Purple buying, long v short, or strength. Above the trend is very position buying.
Green is gamma, or oversold undersold
Yellow is buying/gamma which eccentuates opportunity


Red GDX, this is a US ETF of miners
Purple buying, long v short, or strength. Above the trend is very position buying.
Green is gamma, or oversold undersold
Yellow is buying/gamma which eccentuates opportunity


I also produce a pretty accurate stock market crash or hedging data set. It's correct 90%, historically, and the 10% error just means hedging drag rather than split potfolio.

If anyone wants more on gold historically using my data, no advice given, let me know and I will clean up a spread sheet to share

 

[rederob]

No sign of a retrace so far this morning:

Here's the history.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold stocks just snuck up to be over 10% of my Super (Assets + Cash), having been less than 5% in February 2020, and I haven't really bought since April apart from a few speccies.

Gold certainly has legs.

gg

 

[NoFOMO]

The market thinks higher
The best gold guys/gals think there's too many in the trade. COT says the same
I never listen, I just follow my data. Soon as you listen to someone you suffer from confirmation bais.
It is at a Fib and resistance, previous high
I just hedge for a bit of bounce retracement risk
The MM(market makers) have to delta hedge which will cause at least a small distribution I would think, when that starts and finishes nobody knows.
Data talks
Gold data says its sailing up
Silver says retrace

Copper says go

 

[wayneL]

Anyway you look at this, retracements notwithstanding, PMs are going to go a LOT higher IMVHO.

It's not just the proflicacy of Treasuries and Central banks, and the stated intention to create higher inflation (temporarily they reckon), there is the geopolitical situation and the potential use of gold in the coming currency wars.

I think upside over the medium term to ~$5,000 is a no-brainer, but then again there is Rickard's hypothesis of $10,000 gold.

 

[NoFOMO]

We can only hope for us long the commodities that you guys are right ! You have to love being on a ride rather than watching

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The market thinks higher
The best gold guys/gals think there's too many in the trade. COT says the same
I never listen, I just follow my data. Soon as you listen to someone you suffer from confirmation bais.

...Data talks
Gold data says its sailing up
Silver says retrace

“One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible.”
Paul Tudor-Jones.

 

[NoFOMO]

Sorry this is copper

 

[NoFOMO]

c the yellow buying/gamma, it's ready to go for my eyes

 

[rederob]

A rather crazy 6 trading days for gold, with another $30 added today:

The rule for gold is taking the stairs up and the elevator down.
I have no idea when these stairs reach the top floor, but am reasonably sure a new level will be added next year.