Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wayneL]

I was having a chat with a Perth Mint guy a few weeks back. They have the mint running 247 to supply the demand.

I will have to place an order and wait, it seems. I thought the demand would fall, but this has been since ~Feb now.

I still hold a view that there will be some sort of a substantive retracement and both gold and silver at which I will go in with my ears pinned back.

I bought some gold last year at around 1250 because I thought it was at around about minimum value at that time... But not enough.

Adding a few shekels worth o gold and silver here and there, just because.

Anyway that's my view I hope it plays out.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I still hold a view that there will be some sort of a substantive retracement and both gold and silver at which I will go in with my ears pinned back.

I bought some gold last year at around 1250 because I thought it was at around about minimum value at that time... But not enough.

Adding a few shekels worth o gold and silver here and there, just because.

Anyway that's my view I hope it plays out.

Well, it is the safest bet within all the markets. Gold and Silver will always be valuable; now and forever in time. It has been the case since recorded history.

 

[rederob]

Nothing is foolproof, but the below 4-hourly spot gold chart, using the true strength indicator's crossings as the buy/sell signal, gives a reasonable trading return:

Wherever the TSI margin exceeds 10 points and there is a "V" shaped inflection of the TSI, then it's possible to pre-empt the crossing.
Next action will be a "buy."

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Nothing is foolproof, but the below 4-hourly spot gold chart, using the true strength indicator's crossings as the buy/sell signal, gives a reasonable trading return:

Wherever the TSI margin exceeds 10 points and there is a "V" shaped inflection of the TSI, then it's possible to pre-empt the crossing.
Next action will be a "buy."

Is that based on Golden Cross and Death Cross trading?

 

[rederob]

Is that based on Golden Cross and Death Cross trading?

No, it's just a simple trading strategy based on "TSI crossings."
There are no tricks to it.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

No, it's just a simple trading strategy based on "TSI crossings."
There are no tricks to it.

TSI is clearly pre-emptive of Golden/Death Crosses. You might have something here.

 

[rederob]

TSI is clearly pre-emptive of Golden/Death Crosses. You might have something here.

Are you ready?

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Are you ready?

How are you reading this? Flag pennant has formed and breakout could go either way?

 

[rederob]

How are you reading this? Flag pennant has formed and breakout could go either way?

It went exactly to plan:

Note my comments on Wednesday's post, above.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

It went exactly to plan:

Note my comments on Wednesday's post, above.

Haha; I hadn't even checked.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Nothing is foolproof, but the below 4-hourly spot gold chart, using the true strength indicator's crossings as the buy/sell signal, gives a reasonable trading return:

Wherever the TSI margin exceeds 10 points and there is a "V" shaped inflection of the TSI, then it's possible to pre-empt the crossing.
Next action will be a "buy."

It would be interesting to backtest this over a few years. Buy on the TSI buy signal, double-down on the crossover; then unwind full position on the TSI sell signal.

 

[rederob]

It would be interesting to backtest this over a few years. Buy on the TSI buy signal, double-down on the crossover; then unwind full position on the TSI sell signal.

In a meandering market there might be some mismatches, but in a bull market the warning signals prior to a crossing are very easy to spot.

 

[explod]

The highest daily close since 2012.

Media picking it up too

 

[rederob]

POG has done well over the past fortnight, to close again at a new high (post 2013):

 

[rederob]

Another record close overnight for the present gold bull:

 

[ducati916]

Commercials still leaning against.



When you consider what a perfect storm there has been for gold recently, yet, still below all time highs, you would think that the Commercials leaning against it may well have had something to do with it. I note that the miners (both in gold and silver) have outperformed the metal.

jog on
duc

 

[rederob]

Gold has meandered so far this week and, despite being near 8-year record highs, is only $6 above its May 18th peak. So that's about 6 weeks of going nowhere fast!
Were I trading gold, I would be a buyer and, based on the 4-hourly chart trend which I described in earlier posts, we are nearing a crossing point. The thing is, buying signals using this pattern usually occur "below the line" as noted here:

If @gartley is right, then we should see a big move down in coming days. That's certainly consistent with TSI expectations.
The thing is, every now and again in a bull trend the buy signal occurs above the line. The last time a similar period of consolidation was met by a buy trigger at about the same level was last December. POG pushed over $100/oz higher in that run.
All I know from past records is that gold will not continue to trade for much longer in such a narrow range. My coin toss was a heads up.

 

[ducati916]

A bit of gold news:

Caixin reports today that 83 tons of gold bars used as loan collateral by Nasdaq-listed Wuhan Kingold Jewelry, Inc. (ticker: KGJI) “turned out to be nothing but gilded copper.” That’s bad news for upwards of a dozen Chinese financial institutions, which issued more than RMB 20 billion ($2.8 billion) in loans backed by the fool’s gold to the company over the last five years.

Asked by Caixin if the pledged gold was fake, Kingold chairman Jia Zhihong replied: “How could it be fake if insurance companies agreed to cover it?”

Disbelief is understandable, considering the size of the potential fraud. That 83 ton cache would be equivalent to 22% of the Middle Kingdom’s annual output and nearly 5% of its gold reserve as of last year.

jog on
duc

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Gold futures are pumping: https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-06-...5-year-high-as-bulls-hit-the-accelerator.html


https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold.html

 

[rederob]

As @Chronos-Plutus has noted, "futures" are now pushing POG into +$1800 territory.
In keeping with that sentiment, the question mark I posed yesterday has now been resolved:

We just need spot prices to jump the $1800 hurdle so this bull market can advance more strongly. I say that because in the above chart the "purple" zone is the upper band of the bull trend channel from its low point in 2015, and prices have not yet moved into it.
On the cautious side, last night's move was hardly "decisive:" it was less than a percentage point rise. We need some decent follow through on strong volumes to clear the next hurdle. Right now that's not happening.