Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Dona Ferentes]

Borderline.... Mate, it's CDO, gotta have the letters in alphabetical order

 

[qldfrog]

Gold wise, in a stable world, chart based, we are on a peak and i see pog in usd going down short term.i kept physical and miners but completed sell off pmgold yesterday.
BUT there is a lot happening with china flexing muscles in HK, India and if it worsens we might see AUD fall AND POG jump, so imagine POG in AUD....
I will keep a very keen eye on the geopolitical story and press the pmgold buy button very quickly

 

[explod]

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-...ipulations-on-a-scale-rarely-seen-before.html

It has been manipulated for some time. However a good recovery overnight. Anything can happen. The US importing huge amounts of late.

 

[gartley]

Gold hit the bottom of the channel almost the price projection as shown in the last post. I took profits on my shorts at this point and be looking to re enter after the bounce. On a side note Barrick Gold has generated a downside projection of 19.43-20.42 in the 10W Nominal Cycle. All projections are either met or invalidated. This one is still on, and if not invalidated will either reverse in this range ( albeit temporarily) or continue through it if there are higher timefame cycle projections that are outstanding.

XAUAUD is also on the verge of generating substantially lower projections (2311-2374) in the 20W Nominal cycle. The only way the projection will not invalidate is with a strong rally starting today. So looking to getting more opportunities on the bounces unless they invalidate.

 

[rederob]

Here's an update of the chart I posted a week ago:

If it plays out we get to $1800 in June.
But as I also said, a lot more consolidation around present price levels makes for a bolder impulse later on, irrespective of Elliott's wave counts.

 

[rederob]

I have realigned the shaded box to include all days of the latest downleg, so the pattern survives another day!

Judging from the mayhem in the USA over recent days it's fair to say that "safe haven" investing will be all the go over the coming week. Maybe gold won't get to $1800, but I have a strong feeling we are in for a new 2020 high.

 

[ducati916]

Commercials still leaning against Gold:



jog on
duc

 

[rederob]

For the gold bugs:

That's a lot of headroom to be filled, and will take a number of years.
Be patient!

 

[rederob]

The disconnect between AUD and USD gold prices continues as the Australian dollar strengthens.
On the positive side the key driver of gold's direction, being US dollar-denominated gold, is not far off its 20 May 2020 record high, and this chart shows how it can leapfrog it:

 

[ducati916]

Gold just can't get through that 1750 level. This is the 4'th failure.



This range will break one way or t'other. If I was long, I would be nervous. Gold (recently) has had every possible reason (money printing/QE/low to 0% yields/etc) to advance. It has failed. That must be a concern?

Should I mention Silver?

jog on
duc

 

[explod]

It will continue to rise in my view but a consolidation off $1600 would not surprise me.

 

[rederob]

I like to present information in a clear context. So below is where POG sits from the perspective of a post-GFC recovery:

The trend channel encompasses a $250 range, and is consistent with the volatility that occurred in March 2020 as a result of COV19's impact on markets. Extending the above channel to end-2020 has a lower band of $1595, and an upper limit $250 higher, ie, well over $1800/oz. I point this out as I see this as the sustainable range well into the future, rather than it being indicative of the current bull market.

 

[gartley]

I sold my gold stocks as stated in my earlier posts and went short because the technical evidence was overwhelming that this thing is going to correct. At least for the next some months anyway although the bigger picture says a lot longer ( but for now I am only looking at the next few months) until more price action gets painted to suggest what might happen with the longer term.
In my last post I made mention that XAUAUD in particular looked vulnerable and perhaps even made a very important long term top as price action had crossed below both cycle offset lines and given substantially lower projection.
So I think at this stage the wave 3 projection you are making should be either put on hold or discarded.

 

[ducati916]

Gold up today:



Finding support at the 50SMA. Problem is the 20SMA is (starting) to roll over. Gold needs to get back above the 20SMA. Either way something is going to happen pretty soon. I've had a look at some other technical indicators. The issue (as always) is what time frame to look at. In the end I went for the 1 month time frame:



Marginal: but I think the Bulls might shade it and get their B/O through resistance.

jog on
duc

 

[rederob]

It was an interesting week for gold in that "safe haven" status was never apparent while US communities were in disarray. Moreover, US jobs data befuddled market commentators who predicted large losses, and were greeted instead by large gains at the end of the week. Top that off with a declining rig count for US LTO which pushed WTI crude prices a further 5% higher for the day and it's not hard to see that gold ran out of friends.
So here we are:

I intend to add to one of my gold equity holdings next week, but am not in a hurry. I'll see how the mood shapes up over the coming week.
@gartley might wait a bit longer than me because his charts show a lot more downside is ahead. Perhaps he might share his thoughts?

 

[gartley]

@gartley might wait a bit longer than me because his charts show a lot more downside is ahead. Perhaps he might share his thoughts?

Hello Rederob,
I am still looking for lower prices here and still hold my short on the gold stocks. At the moment there no long term cycle projections in the Hurst models I use. The only cycle projection outstanding is this one, the 10 week cycle with a projection of approximately 1633 so for now that's an initial short term target. IF price breaks through 1620 however it sets
a new projection of 1469 in the 20 week cycle.

I should note that these can be invalidated by price crossing back up the 2 offset lines. But how can we throw the odds in our favour and know from before that they won't do that?
I think I have the answer with this, and will show what has worked for me in the past as well as cover this in more detail in a new thread I will create regarding the status of the current trend in the stock indices.
Aside from the Hurst cycles above, I use my own dynamic cycles. The follwoing charts are the weekly and monthly price cycle detrends. The weekly detrends have rolled over as can be seen. I have created a range for the expected trough of the current move down for each detrend based on the previous 2 troughs, ( I can go furher and average all the earlier ones but for now will stick with these two giving me a maximum and minimun target range )
So for the weekly target I am looking at 1479 to 1512, which is just above the Hurst 20Week cycle of 1469 if it gets activated.
Moving on to the monthly dynamic cycles I should add that the detrends have not rolled over yet but I suspect they will. If they do we are looking at a range of 1306 to 1479. but will worry about and update that later.
This gels with the long term EW chart I posted and also the long term Delta fixed cycle chart that I posted earlier for this trend to persist till late this year or early next. But I don't want to think about that just yet as things may change and would rather focus on the market at hand.

 

[ducati916]

Commercials:



Still selling that Gold.

On a comparative basis:



Silver massively underperforming Gold. However, Silver Miners massively outperforming Gold Miners. Interesting.

jog on
duc

 

[investtrader]

Commercials:

View attachment 104422

Still selling that Gold.

On a comparative basis:

View attachment 104423

Silver massively underperforming Gold. However, Silver Miners massively outperforming Gold Miners. Interesting.

jog on
duc

So the Commercials have been wrong for along time?

 

[ducati916]

So the Commercials have been wrong for along time?

That is one way to look at it.

The other way to look at is that they through their selling are capping the advance of gold significantly. Eventually, unless they reverse their positions, Gold will simply decline (until they buy).

Now I wouldn't presume to tell you which possibility you should embrace: however, I know which one I embrace.

jog on
duc

 

[investtrader]

Duc,
I don't trade Gold, so I couldn't care less where it went. But when that red line is below zero the price goes up.