@gartley might wait a bit longer than me because his charts show a lot more downside is ahead. Perhaps he might share his thoughts?
Hello Rederob,
I am still looking for lower prices here and still hold my short on the gold stocks. At the moment there no long term cycle projections in the Hurst models I use. The only cycle projection outstanding is this one, the 10 week cycle with a projection of approximately 1633 so for now that's an initial short term target. IF price breaks through 1620 however it sets
a new projection of 1469 in the 20 week cycle.
I should note that these can be invalidated by price crossing back up the 2 offset lines. But how can we throw the odds in our favour and know from before that they won't do that?
I think I have the answer with this, and will show what has worked for me in the past as well as cover this in more detail in a new thread I will create regarding the status of the current trend in the stock indices.
Aside from the Hurst cycles above, I use my own dynamic cycles. The follwoing charts are the weekly and monthly price cycle detrends. The weekly detrends have rolled over as can be seen. I have created a range for the expected trough of the current move down for each detrend based on the previous 2 troughs, ( I can go furher and average all the earlier ones but for now will stick with these two giving me a maximum and minimun target range )
So for the weekly target I am looking at 1479 to 1512, which is just above the Hurst 20Week cycle of 1469 if it gets activated.
Moving on to the monthly dynamic cycles I should add that the detrends have not rolled over yet but I suspect they will. If they do we are looking at a range of 1306 to 1479. but will worry about and update that later.
This gels with the long term EW chart I posted and also the long term Delta fixed cycle chart that I posted earlier for this trend to persist till late this year or early next. But I don't want to think about that just yet as things may change and would rather focus on the market at hand.