Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[noirua]

GOLD
https://www.advfn.com/gold

 

[rederob]

Here's spot gold for the past month in US and Australian dollar terms, indexed:

Clearly we can some influence of an increasingly strong Australian dollar, today sitting over $0.66 to one Australian dollar.

 

[gartley]

And that should continue. AUDUSD should continue bullishly to 0.68

 

[ducati916]

Mr Rederob:

The market simply isn't buying into the 'inflation' argument. If it were, Silver would be moving. Silver is doing nothing. Its underperformance against Gold is stunning. If it were simply lagging behind but moving, that would be one thing. This massive underperformance should raise concerns in Gold-bugs.



Which throws doubt on whether Gold will actually enter into a new bull market.



Still struggling at that 1800 level. This is 2 months that it has failed to break through. That is not really the hallmark of a bull market with plenty of hype and excitement. If it cannot break through relatively soon, the bears will become bolder and start to launch attacks.

jog on
duc

 

[rederob]

Mr Rederob:
Still struggling at that 1800 level. This is 2 months that it has failed to break through. That is not really the hallmark of a bull market with plenty of hype and excitement. If it cannot break through relatively soon, the bears will become bolder and start to launch attacks.

As recently as 10 October 2018 POG closed below $1200/oz. It has risen strongly since then to close at a recent record high (not seen since 2012) last week some $550 (over 45%) higher.
I do not share your interpretation of gold's market position.
Furthermore, over the past month silver has outperformed gold by over 20 percentage points, so for the umteenth time I don't agree with your assessment of the nexus:
I personally would prefer that gold did not breach $1800 this year - it has done as much as it needs to already. However, as we have seen, gold can push through $100 very quickly so hitting $1800 in June would not be difficult.

 

[gartley]

Moves quickly but I doubt this will breach 1800 by June or even end of this year. Will use any reasonable rally to add to shorts until current downtrend shows signs of a bottom in place but I doubt that will be this year.....

 

[gartley]

My current long term EW 2c worth on POG. Looks to be unfolding in a textbook impulsive structure....

 

[Miner]

Just geopolitical - gold could likely to go up far more than charts are saying.
Reference India and China - two largest populations, arch rival enemies on the sub continent, together largest buyers of gold and having largest no of Corona cases.
Politically disturbed. Biologically disturbed not being able to manage virus attack. Flood, cyclone, locus - terrible situation in India. So divert attention. China and India are ramping for border tension. Insecurity. people start to buy more gold. Hence the equation for gold to go up. DYOR
Love to see gold price increase but totally unhappy on the political reasons and public sufferings in China and India.

 

[rederob]

My current long term EW 2c worth on POG. Looks to be unfolding in a textbook impulsive structure....

Your chart has wave "c" under $1400/oz.
I have levels of support at $1675, then $1550, then $1450.
I cannot see POG going lower than at the bottom of the COVID selloff, and you have "c" $50 below my "bottom" rung of $1450.
I would like to see POG consolidate above immediate support well into June, to shake out all the weak hands.
I don't discount any possibilities, but I cannot see fiat currencies doing well against gold for several years. So the "impulse" pattern you charted does not fit my thinking.
As always, time will tell.

 

[gartley]

-I didn't see the world stock markets selling off and losing 36% in less than 1 month and now NASDAQ pushing ATH's again and to be honest neither did 99% of market pundits...
Most likely the chart I posted won't work out that way ( they seldom do), but anything is possible at any time in these markets. Whilst you are probably right about the price level of gold, one thing that is clear to me is that the downtrend will persist until next year if take my cycles analysis at face value and that's a lot of time.....

 

[gartley]

Just following up from the projection made last week for rationale behind taking short positions in spot gold. Back then looked at the 8hr dynamic cycles which suggested a correction was about to commence and downtrend has continued since. There is no evidence on either the daily or 8Hr bars which I use that a rally or revrsal is yet imminent.
The current 20 day cycle ( 7/8 day offsets) suggests 1675-1688 range for this leg down and I am looking to take some profits there as it also has confluence with the lower channel trend line.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Here's spot gold for the past month in US and Australian dollar terms,

we can some influence of an increasingly strong Australian dollar, today sitting over $0.66 to one Australian dollar.

I know what you mean, but i'd really like to cash my 66 aussie dollars and receive 100.

(maybe that's why banks are doing well today, other side of the trade?)

 

[rederob]

I know what you mean, but i'd really like to cash my 66 aussie dollars and receive 100.

(maybe that's why banks are doing well today, other side of the trade?)

I discovered there is only 20 minutes to edit out the really dumb mistakes I make, and this was a doozie .
I have a bad habit of not using spellcheck or grammar checkers and write directly into ASF. then press "post reply" without reviewing what I wrote.
Luckily the charts I post don't rely on me for their data!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

we all make them.

let the charts do the talking

 

[Rosscoe62]

3/4 of my gold positions were sold off today. The trend has been broken temporarily & I concur with gartley that further movement to the downside is imminent. Heading back to the lower end of the range in the short term.
It’s a sector to watch very closely however as when the upward trend re establishes itself again, solid gains are likely to be captured and quickly ...

 

[rederob]

Here's my take on the bull trend:

As very little price action is outside the narrower band above, I can see a possible near term low at about $1660.

 

[explod]

Here's my take on the bull trend:

As very little price action is outside the narrower band above, I can see a possible near term low at about $1660.

The volume suggests that this is a last smash for shorter to get out. In my view gold will hit all time highs soon. Providers can no longer keep up to the demand, who'd have thought Perth Mint would be struggling to fill orders. In my view gold is hot. Miners knocked back a bit today but many were overrunning. Interesting times.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

The coming precious metal price rise will be unprecedented throughout recorded history, over the next decade.

I am just going to accumulate Newcrest Mining (NCM) as I believe they have the best portfolio of gold producing assets on the planet, better than Barrick and Newmont.

This is a long-term play, multi-decade play; and so I will be accumulating NCM for the next decade, then holding for a few decades at least.

 

[Miner]

I discovered there is only 20 minutes to edit out the really dumb mistakes I make, and this was a doozie .
I have a bad habit of not using spellcheck or grammar checkers and write directly into ASF. then press "post reply" without reviewing what I wrote.
Luckily the charts I post don't rely on me for their data!

Mate
Just speak Australian and not English leaving charts do the talking

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I discovered there is only 20 minutes to edit out the really dumb mistakes I make, and this was a doozie .
I have a bad habit of not using spellcheck or grammar checkers and write directly into ASF. then press "post reply" without reviewing what I wrote.
Luckily the charts I post don't rely on me for their data!

20 minutes is actually quite long, compared to other platforms; not that I am complaining.

We aren't writing a thesis here, so I wouldn't be worried about a few typos.

I have a habit of re-reading what I post, many times, because I am borderline obsessive compulsive ; on most occasions, however sometimes I will be busy and distracted and won't be able to re-read my posts.