Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[gartley]

I am a gold bug, but I have to trade what I see and at the moment I don't like the price action that is unfolding here. There is a so much bullish sentiment around at the traps at the moment which also makes me wary. Short term the following 8hr closes are bearish(at least for the next week) and as such I took out short positions today as this is also accompanied what appears to be a completed 5 wave structure from the March 17 low and a daily engulfing red candle.
Longer term I think we are in the process of forming a top here that will stall the market until early next year as shown in the delta chart attached but this needs to be confirmed in the dynamic cycles chart which it has not done yet. Assuming it is however, next cycle point low red 8 is next year.

 

[Rosscoe62]

Metals Settle Mixed With Silver At A 2-1/2 Month High On Optimism About Industrial Metals Demand
cmdtyNewswires - Mon May 18, 2:16PM CDT
Jun Comex gold (GCM20) on Monday closed -21.9 (-1.25%), and July silver (SIN20) closed +0.398 (+2.33%).

Metals prices on Monday settled mixed with silver at a 2-1/2 month high. Gold prices on Monday fell back from a 7-1/2 year nearest-futures high and turned lower after stocks surged on optimism about a vaccine for the coronavirus. Silver prices rallied on a weak dollar along with plans by China to revive infrastructure projects.

Stocks rallied sharply on Monday and curbed safe-haven demand for gold after Moderna said its initial vaccine tests showed that it successfully creates an immune-system response that protects against the coronavirus and is safe.

Gold prices initially rallied in overnight trade and matched its 7-1/2 year nearest-futures high after comments on Sunday night from Fed Chair Powell signaled Fed policy will remain ultra-accommodative. Mr. Powell said the Fed can increase its emergency lending programs, and "there's a lot more we can do, we're not out of ammunition by a long shot."

Silver prices garnered support Monday from a weak dollar and hopes for increased Chinese industrial metals demand after China's State Council announced guidelines to revive large infrastructure projects.

Monday's global economic data was mostly bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The U.S. May NAHB housing market index rose +7 to 37, stronger than expectations of +5 to 35. Also, China Apr new home prices rose +0.42% m/m, the biggest increase in 6 months, and home prices rose in 50 cities in April compared with 38 cities in March. Conversely, Japan Q1 GDP fell -3.4% (q/q annualized), which is negative for industrial metals demand although slightly stronger than expectations of -4.5%.

Precious metal prices continue to see underlying safe-haven demand from the global coronavirus pandemic. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 4.859 million globally, with deaths exceeding 318,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Friday rose to a new record high of 3,067.99 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 687.146 million ounces last Thursday.

 

[gartley]

Just adding to my last post #12281. The following long term geometric chart adds weight to the long term delta chart and the importance of the level gold currently sits at. This appears to be a level of huge resistance to overcome, even though we have had a slight throwever on the upper trendline of this monthly chart. As can be seen drawing as straight line from 2011 top to the Dec 2015 low and cloning this line to the 2008 top and cloning again to an equal distance above the 2011/2015 line, price action sitting at this resistance point. Doing likewise with the orange line and cloning upward to the 2018 top and then again equally upward we have an intercection at current level.

 

[rederob]

As I don't trade gold, @gartley's technicals are not in my kit.
My focus has always been on the probable long term outcome, while showing intra-week action. So here's where we are again this morning:

I don't yet see the ingredients in place for a powerful move towards $1800, which I see as key resistance. And as always am happy to see pullbacks take the heat out out of price rises, as I'm not keen on bubbles forming any time soon!
Near term price action remains on track for a plus $1750 close soon.

 

[aus_trader]

As I don't trade gold, @gartley's technicals are not in my kit.
My focus has always been on the probable long term outcome, while showing intra-week action. So here's where we are again this morning:

I don't yet see the ingredients in place for a powerful move towards $1800, which I see as key resistance. And as always am happy to see pullbacks take the heat out out of price rises, as I'm not keen on bubbles forming any time soon!
Near term price action remains on track for a plus $1750 close soon.

Yes I also like a slow rise with pull backs. A rapid rise would increase the chance of a crash (at least back down to a long term moving average) in my opinion.

 

[Rosscoe62]

I’m a holder of 7 gold players at present, through triggers of mine using TA.

I bought in after the dust had settled from the March 23rd selloff and began buying the gold stocks from mid April - once the charts demonstrated upward momentum was well & truly back on track again.

Gold was trending beautifully prior to the March hit & now has taken off once again.

I think the comments of a slower traction gearing up towards 1800 is correct. I think a sideways pattern will be established for some time.

However, I’m still bullish regarding the sector.

Safe haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months.

Low global bond yields which boost demand for gold as a store of value as well as current low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies have boosted prices in this asset class. The pandemic being the catalyst for the safer haven option as well.

I see this trend continuing short-mid term.

In place are trailing stops should a sharp trend reversal occur ....

 

[aus_trader]

The March selloff was brutal and I also got out of Gold stocks for some time and then the recovery was even more violent that it took me a while to get back into Gold stocks. Interesting times...

 

[tinhat]

The March selloff was brutal and I also got out of Gold stocks for some time and then the recovery was even more violent that it took me a while to get back into Gold stocks. Interesting times...

The worms will eat your flesh once you are dead.

 

[aus_trader]

The worms will eat your flesh once you are dead.

I think those worms and Hedgies that dumped the market in March already ate some flesh, while I was alive

 

[gartley]

I keep hearing amongst Ellioticians about a wave 5 blow of move in gold currently unfolding. Wave 5's are usually the longest and most dramatic waves in commodities. There is a problem here, wave 1 is the longest wave in this structure from the 16th March low. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest as per the rules and thus an extended wave 5 will not unfold if this count is correct. This lust thrust has come from a contracting triangle wave 4 and the measured move target was 1765 which has been reached.

 

[rederob]

@gartley - Here's how I see the wave count work better (my count is golden):

My view is that the count window in your chart is time constrained and the impulse waves are therefore not properly accounted for.
Underlying my count is the preferred trend channel I use to preempt future prices. I place wave 3 terminating in the plus$1800 window which I have shaded, above.

 

[aus_trader]

Thanks gartley and rederob. I respect both views.

But I have been also listening to a few Gold / Gold mining guys from Kitco and other sites and general consensus is a further advance to test all time high in Gold chart. No one makes a claim it'll be a straight line to the re-test but they reckon the fundamentals are in place for a re-test in the near future...

Let's hope so.

 

[rederob]

Although it was uneventful for gold since last Friday, it was comforting to see POG close above $1730 and remain poised to break higher next week.
A quick recap of my wave count going forward:

We also need to bear in mind that during the week POG had its highest close for 7.5 years, so bullish momentum, while seemingly equivocating, is wholly intact.

 

[gartley]

Although it was uneventful for gold since last Friday, it was comforting to see POG close above $1730 and remain poised to break higher next week.
A quick recap of my wave count going forward:

We also need to bear in mind that during the week POG had its highest close for 7.5 years, so bullish momentum, while seemingly equivocating, is wholly intact.

Rederob,
I am no expert in wave counting, I prefer using cycles, but your wave 1 has three subwaves within it ( there are 5 waves in an impulse waveawave) as such this wave count does not meet EW rules. A better count if you are bullishly inclined and one that meets the rules,would be a subwave 1 where your wave 1 is.

Although it was uneventful for gold since last Friday, it was comforting to see POG close above $1730 and remain poised to break higher next week.
A quick recap of my wave count going forward:

We also need to bear in mind that during the week POG had its highest close for 7.5 years, so bullish momentum, while seemingly equivocating, is wholly intact.

Rederob,

I am no expert in wave counting, I prefer using cycles, but your wave 1 has three subwaves within it ( there are 5 waves in an impulse wave) as such this wave count does not meet EW rules. A better count if you are bullishly inclined, (one that meets the rules) would be a subwave 1 where your wave 1 is.
Having said that, my shorts taken out earlier in the week in the US gold miners are well ahead and the downtrend looks to resume on Tuesday.
Gold may have the fundementals on its side here, but fundementals are crap for market timing and timing is everything. I have a respect what what the long term charts suggest taking them at face value because they suggested likewise for the stock indices before the crash.
I had an exceptional run trading gold long since the middle of last year and although I am longer term bullish I trade what I see, bullish or bearish. For now a pullback after this strong move up,would be welcomed to give another opportunity later for trades on the long side.

Cheers

 

[gartley]

Gold in australian dollars looks to have done it's dash IMO. Looking for a historic top and longer term decline to take hold if this wave count is correct, this aligns with the earlier longer term analysis on Gold priced in USD.

 

[rederob]

Rederob,
I am no expert in wave counting, I prefer using cycles, but your wave 1 has three subwaves within it ( there are 5 waves in an impulse waveawave) as such this wave count does not meet EW rules. A better count if you are bullishly inclined and one that meets the rules,would be a subwave 1 where your wave 1 is.


Rederob,

I am no expert in wave counting, I prefer using cycles, but your wave 1 has three subwaves within it ( there are 5 waves in an impulse wave) as such this wave count does not meet EW rules. A better count if you are bullishly inclined, (one that meets the rules) would be a subwave 1 where your wave 1 is.
Having said that, my shorts taken out earlier in the week in the US gold miners are well ahead and the downtrend looks to resume on Tuesday.
Gold may have the fundementals on its side here, but fundementals are crap for market timing and timing is everything. I have a respect what what the long term charts suggest taking them at face value because they suggested likewise for the stock indices before the crash.
I had an exceptional run trading gold long since the middle of last year and although I am longer term bullish I trade what I see, bullish or bearish. For now a pullback after this strong move up,would be welcomed to give another opportunity later for trades on the long side.

Cheers

Thanks - I took the termination of "1" for granted, so In the chart below I have used the closing prices to show more clearly how I arrived at my alternative count:
As I don't "trade" it's neither here nor there what happens next week as I am in for a longer haul.
In terms of cycles, I won't mind the current sideways movement running into July, as POG has increased about $300/oz since dipping, along with all markets, to $1450 some 8 weeks ago.
And exactly a year ago POG closed at $1273.

 

[aus_trader]

Gold in Aud ($) has been good for our asx listed miners. Hope the pull back will be shallow that gartley is suggesting based on waves. Otherwise I may have to liquidate my Goldie positions. Anyway it's good to have the predictions, hence the graphs posted, in preparation for a pull back.

However like rederob, I will be holding onto the longer term Gold ETFs. I think the macro picture is bullish if we are talking in years rather than short term. Also they sometimes trade with wider spreads as well, so will not be suitable to buy and sell on the shorter term I think.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Title of Thread : Gold Price - Where is it heading?

The answer is Up.

Ask a bookie. What odds on it going down. What odds on it going up. Follow the odds is my advice.

gg

 

[wayneL]

Gold in australian dollars looks to have done it's dash IMO. Looking for a historic top and longer term decline to take hold if this wave count is correct, this aligns with the earlier longer term analysis on Gold priced in USD.
View attachment 103716 View attachment 103717

This is my view also.

I've got some cash to buy more physical (I want some silver too) will buy if we get a nice pull back. Medium/long term the odds are we go a lot higher, my opinion in tune with most you of guys.

Meanwhile I've got physical I bought last year close to what I thought was minimum value. If gold goes off to the races without me buying more now, I'll still be a happy camper.

Considering some option strategies on fits too.

 

[gartley]

I have held a portfolio of companies and ETFs listed on the NYSE, namely
GDX
GDXJ
SBGL
Gold(Barrick)
NUGT
Have liquidated all for now.
Liked to hold securities in USD because our dollar got pummeled in the last 10 months !