Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[ducati916]

In my mind the question is 'when will this really start to happen?' Next year would be a time to watch closely, being the second year of an election cycle.

AI is moving much faster than people realise.

Different subject, liquidity.

Ignore the moron on the top left.




jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

And on it goes.



The Chinese cousins will push it up to $3333.33

gg

 

[Sean K]

And on it goes.

View attachment 196519

The Chinese cousins will push it up to $3333.33

gg

One thing to smile about today.

 

[qldfrog]

One thing to smile about today.

View attachment 196523

Probably the only smile opportunity today in my shares portfolio indeed

 

[wayneL]

On my 21st birthday which was nearly 42 years ago my parents gave me a 1oz gold Krugerrand.

They advised me to never sell it, but if I ever was in deep trouble I needed a bus fare home, this would buy it.

I never understood the power of gold at the time, but in respect for them I never sold it, and I still have the original Krugerrand.

I can't remember what it was worth it the time in USD, maybe 250 or 350, but here we are in 2025 and that thing is worth ~$5,000 AUD.

Yes there have been investments that have appreciated many times more than that, but so many investments that have gone to zero.

 

[divs4ever]

On my 21st birthday which was nearly 42 years ago my parents gave me a 1oz gold Krugerrand.

They advised me to never sell it, but if I ever was in deep trouble I needed a bus fare home, this would buy it.

I never understood the power of gold at the time, but in respect for them I never sold it, and I still have the original Krugerrand.

I can't remember what it was worth it the time in USD, maybe 250 or 350, but here we are in 2025 and that thing is worth ~$5,000 AUD.

Yes there have been investments that have appreciated many times more than that, but so many investments that have gone to zero.

wowee that would have been a long bus ride home , might even still pay for a taxi fare home , these days ( say Perth to Sydney )

nice parents , though

 

[wayneL]

nice parents , though

That was the best financial advice they ever gave me, but it was worth far more that the value of the coin.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I just looked at the POG in $AUD and it's high today was $7.

$7 shy of $AUD 5000. at $AUD 4993.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

That was the best financial advice they ever gave me, but it was worth far more that the value of the coin.

i was down to one parent by the time is was 21 , and mum taught me to look after myself ( whether it was finding my way home from school at 4 , or making new friends like the three large dogs i befriended and walked to primary school with , making money on the side )

but dad taught me one gem

'if you have to buy your friends .. you probably don't have any ' ( that should be in bold letters on any application form to join a political party )

 

[finicky]

 

[qldfrog]

that is fair, 3% below spot..plus risk of change between getting the bar and selling it again...

 

[ducati916]

	​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ The Financial Services Act of 1986 directed that the Bank of England (BoE) assume oversight of the London Gold Market and the London Silver Market. In December 1987, the London Bullion Market Association was incorporated with its Code of Conduct written over the prior 12 months by London Market members under the oversight of the BoE. Trading of gold and silver in the following BoE gold price control era allowed traders to create and trade cash/spot gold and silver claims - without limit - using promissory notes for immediate gold and silver ownership in London as opposed to trading claims on allocated bars in this, the world’s largest gold and silver cash market. In addition, independent work by fund manager Richard Pomboy in 1996 and a couple of years later central bank consultant Frank Veneroso and analysts James Turk and Reg Howe, gave compelling evidence of off-balance-sheet gold leasing by central in the order of 1,000 to 1,500 tonnes (32 million (M) oz. to 49M oz. per year) coordinated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). This silent supply of leased gold in conjunction with the promissory note pricing system in the London market furthered downward pressure on gold’s price throughout the 1990s. The Price Of Gold Matters​ Starting at 4:20 of the following link is a video of discussion between Steve Forbes and Larry Kudlow on March 25, 2025 where it is again confirmed that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan KBE utilized the price of gold as a market primary indicator of anticipated future monetary and price inflation: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/steve-forbes-the-best-barometer-of-inflation-is-the-price-of-gold/vi-AA1BE9Tb The 1970s had seen the price of gold increase by 21x and the price of silver increase by 24x through to 1980 and that run to gold and silver forced the Fed Rate to 19% by 1980, so Greenspan utilizing the price of gold as the market signal of inflation expectations when he took over the Fed is no surprise. The price of gold (and silver) had served as an important inflation warning system and a limit on Fed monetary policy in the 1970s and could not be ignored. The graph in Figure 1 below shows the price of gold inflation-adjusted to constant 2007 dollars from 1977 to 2007 using the consumer price index (CPI) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The gold price is inverted (right scale) and is shown as the orange line. The blue line below shows real interest rates represented as the 30 year Treasury Rate minus the published CPI rate of price inflation during this same period. What can be seen in Figure 1 is that, starting in 1987 and for a large part of the Greenspan era, secularly lower real real interest rates could be effected - all the while subversion of the market gold price using the London selling and trading of promissory notes in the cash/spot market ensured that the gold warning signal would not sound. In fact, gold’s price declined. Greenspan was a ‘maestro’ able to run looser monetary policy and blowing asset bubbles while claiming Fed policy was not inflationary (other than the ‘beneficial’ asset inflation that was occurring). Greenspan was also able to effect the “Greenspan Put’ where Fed policy responded to the collapse of asset bubbles that it had created by blowing larger asset bubbles with even looser monetary policy. And yet there was muted bond market reaction.​ ​ Figure 1 - Constant 2007 Dollar Gold Price (inverted, right scale - orange line) vs Real Interest Rates (left scale - blue line) From 1977 To 2007 Calculated Using BLS CPI Data; source: Reg Howe / goldensextant.com, GoldChartRUs.com In comparison to its prior inflation models, monthly inflation figures published by the BLS have been continually reduced over time using substitution effect, geometric vs. arithmetic component weighting, Boskin Commission reductions, hedonic adjustment, etc. At the time that the above graph was published in 2007, I asked Reg Howe if the graph could be republished utilizing a constant 1980 CPI model to add further insight. Shadowstats.com publishes a constant CPI measure based-upon the 1980 BLS model and it shows the consumer CPI rate having run at least 2x as hot since 1980 as the officially published CPI inflation rates. Keep in mind that in 2024 former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers co-authored a paper showing that in recent years actual cost-of-living price inflation ran at twice the BLS published inflation rate (up to 18% p.a. in 2023) Using a CPI inflation model based-upon the 1980 BLS model to determine a constant-dollar gold price and real interest rates, the results in Figure 2 were obtained. ​ Figure 2 - Constant 2007 Dollar Gold Price (inverted, right scale - orange line) vs Real Interest Rates (left scale - blue line) From 1977 To 2007 Calculated Using 1980 BLS CPI Model As Estimated By ShadowStats.com; source: Reg Howe / goldensextant.com, GoldChartRUs.com, ShadowStats.com (SS) Untethered from the gold price warning system, Greenspan Fed policy saw the M2 Money Stock increase by 140% between 1987 and 2006. Predictably, asset prices ran. ​ Figure 3 - US M2 Money Stock ($ billions) 1986-2008; source: St. Louis Federal Reserve ​ The power of the market economy in solving shortage and generating societal well-being is through the market pricing mechanism.​ When the central planning regulators at central banks short-circuit important market price signals such as the price of gold and interest rates, very bad things happen. And when central bank monetary policies such as driving a series of escalating asset bubbles in succession are put into effect over decades after shutting-off the gold and silver monetary warning system, chaos will result in the currency and bond markets - this was well known beforehand. Market price interventions always result in shortage. Gold and silver are no different and it should then surprise no-one that malpricing of gold and silver through the gold and silver promissory note cash markets in London now result in shortages of these safe haven metals. Artificially low prices result in artificially low production and over consumption. What we will see is that those self-same regulators who have been the authors of global chaos are next going to prescribe even more of their central planning to solve your problems that they have created. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), social credit scoring, universal basic income (UBI) will become the rage among central planners for us. They have miscalculated. jog on duc​

 

[rederob]

POG in AUD terms closed over $5000 for the first time ever yesterday.
But the better news is the outlook for producers priced in AUD given the average price is up almost $1000 between the first and third quarters, and heads into the last quarter a further 10% higher again.



Ramelius was marked down sharply last month on news of its longer term production outlook. While not good news for its stock holders, anyone looking at how the company has continued to add to its resource base over the past decade will realise that what was presented was its worst case scenario. It will be near on impossible for RMS to not find a good deal more gold given the prospectivity of its mining tenements.

 

[Sean K]

The last 250 bucks on AUD POG has taken about 4 business days.

Logic says this is not sustainable, but it's fun to watch for now. Almost draws a laugh.

Silver still lagging. It will catch up.

Gold price breaks records above $3,100 as parabolic rally defies gravity, silver price eyes breakout

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.

www.kitco.com

Silver plays catch-up but faces resistance

Silver is also climbing, though not with the same breakout conviction. Spot silver is up nearly 20% year-to-date and briefly tested $35 last week, a level not seen since 2011. However, it remains well below its all-time highs.

“Silver is facing clear resistance around $35,” said Wagner. “If it breaks out, $41 to $42 is the next logical level – but it’s still lagging gold.”

Despite outperforming gold in percentage terms this quarter, silver ETF inflows have lagged. Since January, silver ETFs have added just 2.2 million ounces, a 0.32% increase, compared to gold ETFs’ 5.9% rise. Analysts cite silver’s dual role as a monetary and industrial metal for the divergence.

“It’s tied to the broader economy,” Wagner noted. “If tech and manufacturing slow, silver demand slows too. That’s part of what’s holding it back.”

Still, Wagner believes silver could eventually follow gold higher if a supply squeeze materializes. “There’s plenty of room to run—but it hasn’t broken out yet,” he said.

 

[qldfrog]

Whild happy obviously with pog, silver is reallllly slow to catch up
When i had to sell some PZm to reduce overexposure, silver was the one to go

 

[qldfrog]

Whild happy obviously with pog, silver is reallllly slow to catch up
When i had to sell some PZm to reduce overexposure, silver was the one to go

Apologies cf typos, each was supposedly corrected on the fly but were not when i pressed enter...
I am nevertheless responsible as i could have read my text after posting..too late now..i need to quieten down or get a bigger phone screen /smaller fingers

 

[wayneL]

Apologies cf typos, each was supposedly corrected on the fly but were not when i pressed enter...
I am nevertheless responsible as i could have read my text after posting..too late now..i need to quieten down or get a bigger phone screen /smaller finger

I feel your pain.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@qldfrog @wayneL . This used happen to me. I now just use my big toe rather than all my toes.

gg

 

[rcw1]

Good evening gold believers ...

AFR article: Gold soars to $5000 in ‘once in 40-year gift’ for investors, fundies
Alex Gluyas and Mark Wembridge
Apr 1, 2025 – 6.00pm

The price of gold is about $5000 an ounce for the first time – and it’s not just investors in the commodity with a glint in their eyes. Money managers see fertile ground to do good business, reopening or launching gold funds as a wall of cash heads toward the safe haven asset amid worries the Trump administration’s economic plans spell trouble for sharemarkets.

Gold quoted in the local currency, a measure widely used by Australian miners, hit $5028 an ounce on Tuesday while the more widely quoted US dollar price also reached an all-time high above $US3133 an ounce.

The relentless rally over the past three months has pushed the gold price almost 20 per cent higher this year, its best quarter since 1986. It was only 18 months ago that the commodity was trading at below $US2000 an ounce, and fund managers see a decade-long gold rush that is not yet reflected in the share prices of Australian miners and explorers.

“I don’t think the general market has cottoned on to this, but we’re hopeful this is just the start of a genuine gold bull run that we haven’t seen for nearly 15 years,” said Collins St Asset Management’s Michael Goldberg.
“The past couple of gold bull markets lasted about 10 years and I reckon we’re only three to four years into this one.”

Collins St is among a growing number of money managers reopening or launching gold funds to capitalise on the strong demand from investors. The firm launched its gold fund in April 2023 and has reopened it this year following solid demand from clients who want to access the portfolio’s 77 per cent increase over the 12 months to February 28.

The rising gold price has come at a time of steep stockmarket sell-offs as investors grow increasingly concerned that US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs will cause a recession in the world’s largest economy. Central banks around the world are also shifting their reserves away from the US dollar and toward gold, contributing to the sharp price rise.
L1 Capital, a firm that specialises in investing for super funds and family offices, has also launched a dedicated gold strategy as it seeks to capitalise on the same disconnect between the commodity’s price and the valuation of miners and explorers in the sector that Collins St forecasts.

“We’ve found it bizarre that the share price of these mid-cap gold stocks has barely rallied over the past year despite the huge earnings leverage that these stocks have to higher gold prices,” L1’s co-chief investment officer Mark Landau said. “We think the earnings for these stocks that we’ve bought are likely to increase 200 to 300 per cent as a result of [the rally].”
Citi estimates that ASX-listed miners are priced at valuations that reflect a gold price of between $US2250 an ounce and $US2500 an ounce, well below spot prices. The Wall Street investment bank attributed the disparity partly to the sector’s poor track record of delivering on guidance.

The commodity’s soaring price this year has left miners with their highest margins since the 1980s, Citi’s global head of commodities Maximilian Layton said, creating “a once in 40-year gift for gold producers”.
There are varying estimates among the brokers about how high gold will climb. RBC Capital Markets became the latest bank to upgrade its forecasts, tipping average prices of $US3039 an ounce this year and $US3195 in 2026.

Citi sees gold at $US3200 an ounce in the next three months.

Others are even more bullish. Goldman Sachs recently lifted its year-end forecast to $US3300 an ounce, Morgan Stanley said prices could hit $US3400, while Macquarie predicted they could reach $US3500.

While lithium remains in the doldrums and iron ore is stagnating, the higher gold price is also spurring on more dealmaking.
South Africa’s Gold Fields has gone hostile in its $3.3 billion takeover proposal of Australian joint venture partner Gold Road Resources; Northern Star, the country’s biggest gold miner, wants to buy De Grey Mining for $5 billion, while Spartan Resources and Ramelius Resources have agreed to tie the knot in a deal that values the combined group at $4.2 billion.
The shift has also prompted the re-emergence of long-dormant mines around the country, as higher prices turn previously uneconomical mines into viable propositions. Historical gold mining areas around Coolgardie in Western Australia and St Arnaud in Victoria are experiencing such revivals.

RBC’s Alex Barkley suggested several miners were undervalued, especially mid-tier operators Westgold Resources, Bellevue Gold and Vault Minerals.
“Given improving earnings and balance sheets, we generally favour perceived ‘lower quality’ mid-tiers, ideally with relatively unhedged production,” he wrote in a note to clients.