Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

For what exactly? Are we talking 1 oz coins? bars? or 100oz bars?

Ounce bars.

Why the need to be so specific, gold is gold. Just giving

Anyway someone told me here a week or so back that they are all a heap of cranks (like me) that buy and sell on ebay.

 

[explod]

Just rang my pet dealer who over the counter would give you AU$1,380

He also added that gold and silver is going south.

 

[FlyingFox]

Ounce bars.

Why the need to be so specific, gold is gold. Just giving

Yes gold is gold but the spot price is for very large cast bars. There is a cost involved in production of smaller bars and even more for smaller minted coins plus packaging and transport.

Also there is a delay in any extra production for coins and small bars if there is a sudden high demand. So if you can't get your favourite eagle, it may not be the end of the world; not yet anyway.

To give you an idea of this, at my favourite gold dealer:

100g gold bars = 4,743.00 / 3.21507466 ( troy ounces in 100g) = 1475.24 / oz
10z gold bar = 14,847.00/ 10 = 1484.70 /oz

When I asked him about this, he just said oz denominations are more popular so we have a slightly higher margin. Personally he would buy metric because gold is gold and it is all coming out of perth mint.

Just my

 

[prawn_86]

Just rang my pet dealer who over the counter would give you AU$1,380

He also added that gold and silver is going south.

That seems to be a spread based off the paper price. Where is the disconnect for actual physical?

 

[FlyingFox]

That seems to be a spread based off the paper price. Where is the disconnect for actual physical?

On ebay

 

[CanOz]

Might take it out this morning....into a measured move to 77 at the moment,,,

76.5 is the GAP btw....

 

[explod]

On ebay

Laugh if you wish but I have (some years ago) purchased bars with no worries on ebay using paypal which has proven to be quite secure.

 

[FlyingFox]

Laugh if you wish but I have (some years ago) purchased bars with no worries on ebay using paypal which has proven to be quite secure.

I am not disputing the fact you can buy safely off of ebay. We are only questioning why would you pay 1550-1800 dollars / oz to buy off of ebay when you can get the bars much closer to spot price from gold dealers. And more importantly for the other members, equating that to a disconnect between physical and spot prices.

Do you realise that the seller needs ~ a 7-10% margin just to cover ebay and paypal costs?

http://pages.ebay.com.au/help/sell/fees.html
https://www.paypal.com/au/webapps/mpp/paypal-fees

 

[CanOz]

Short term bullish, if i were a betting man i would be betting on the gap fill today....

For intra-day we'll be looking for longs...

 

[Mr Z]

Yeah its 30% higher than this time last year but from my read its the producers who have increased their short positions (don't tell explod though, facts and all!) against raising longs of hot money.

Seen this? Just found it I like it.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/cftc-tff/main.html

I don't think so, many of the producers are closing out hedges as the price is now below their production costs so it is now cheaper to mine the LBMA than to supply mined metal into the hedges. They are effectively getting long here.

Keep in mind that the commercials includes bullion banks etc that are not producers.

OI is rising into a price slump, that is not normal, also net positions are not extreme so this leads me to believe that big spread trades are being placed. It doesn't look to me like business as usual for silver, leaves me wondering which leg of the spread will be lifted?!

It looks to me like the commercials are headed long, at least as long as they have been for a long while, so I figure they are busy selling there short positions to the funds... It looks a little like a move is being put over on the hedgies here.

Do I have this messed up? Am I thinking straight?

COT Oscillator, Net and OI in sequence.

 

[Mr Z]

He also added that gold and silver is going south.

Near term I would agree!

 

[Mr Z]

Oh yeah!

TH will love this for a classic bit of goldbuggery!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-02/next-escalation-gold-goes-100-initial-margin

Spot the problem?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Oh yeah!

TH will love this for a classic bit of goldbuggery!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-02/next-escalation-gold-goes-100-initial-margin

Spot the problem?

Would love one of the bugs/experts to reply. See how much they know about their field of expertise!

Explod?

 

[young-gun]

Regardless of the seemingly pointless debates on here, irrespective of whether there is a current disconnect between paper and physical, no matter how terrible the charts look, disregarding if you're a trader or a hoarder, does anyone in here honestly believe that over the next 5-10 years that gold(and silver) does not have huge potential?

The global economy is f*#$ed, alright things are still pretty good here, and we will likely come out the other side in a much better position than most nations, but things are simply not ok.

 

[Mr Z]

Regardless of the seemingly pointless debates on here, irrespective of whether there is a current disconnect between paper and physical, no matter how terrible the charts look, disregarding if you're a trader or a hoarder, does anyone in here honestly believe that over the next 5-10 years that gold(and silver) does not have huge potential?

The global economy is f*#$ed, alright things are still pretty good here, and we will likely come out the other side in a much better position than most nations, but things are simply not ok.

Yes... but things ebb and flow, it is never going to be straight forward and as this global currency war develops it will actually get harder to pick the relative strength in the markets. This can easily play against gold as it has for the last two years, if you bought at the wrong time or are forced to sell for some reason at the wrong time then "being right" has not helped you much.

The sad fact is that the global environment that is developing will suit disciplined traders that don't ask questions, use tight money management and operate a well defined system over those that hold. The volatility is going to increase here as things move on and fundamental investors will need religious conviction to see it out to the end!

My advice to anyone would be to learn to do a little of both, in the end you will need trading skills to know when to exit long term positions.... essentially we are all traders, we are just arguing time frame. A tighter time frame gives you more practice at getting right, guys that never trade out and in worry me, they are highly likely to muff the exit.... badly.

2c

JMO


and all that

 

[explod]

The so called regulators/banksters have been playing around with margin percentages for awhile now at particular chart support/resistance lines for some years. Just part of the misical chair paper game which on principal I have refused to mess my head with.

What about the fact that for every ounce of gold there are now more than 100 paper contracts. Rules for the banksters and another for the honest traders. In fact current reports suggest the London Bullion Exchange have virtually sold off all physical.

Stuff trading. It is not about making money it is about having something left when it hits the fan. It is all about saving real money in my view. Gold/silver is the only real money.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: Oh yeah!

Would love one of the bugs/experts to reply. See how much they know about their field of expertise!

Explod?

Why go and spoil a great headline.....

"to be margined at 100% of initial for intraday trading" just means that you have to post initial margin rather than maintenance (secondary) margin. i.e. an extra $640 (post $7040 instead of $6400) to buy 100 oz. of gold with value ~$147,500. it doesn't mean there's no leverage allowed, or that you have to post the full $147,500."

??

(ZH must have been seriously burned in the past for such vehement animosity to "the game" & the players.....)

 

[ROE]

Regardless of the seemingly pointless debates on here, irrespective of whether there is a current disconnect between paper and physical, no matter how terrible the charts look, disregarding if you're a trader or a hoarder, does anyone in here honestly believe that over the next 5-10 years that gold(and silver) does not have huge potential?

The global economy is f*#$ed, alright things are still pretty good here, and we will likely come out the other side in a much better position than most nations, but things are simply not ok.

Depend what sort of an investor you are...gold has zero relevant to me, it can go up or down 50% I have no place in it...

What you saying is just betting things turn out the way you think it turn out but history tell you, market is unpredictable..

The way I see it if i got 50k to put it some where I have an option put it into gold which produce no income, cost you oppotunity cost and expose to commodity price or I can buy some shares in decent business that pay dividend and if the world

goes up and down it may pay me a little more or a little less dividend and if it happen do well year after year I get more and more dividend and maybe I can buy twice as many shares as I have before....

I hold an ounce of gold it still and ounce of gold 15 years from now....no income....cant turn it into 2 ounce of gold...

 

[CanOz]

Love those bots....


You reckon a human can do this???

 

[chops_a_must]

That is one bizarre chart!