Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[CanOz]

That is one bizarre chart!

If it weren't a range chart you would even notice the fact that all that volume was done in seconds between the two levels...

 

[Ann]

Might take it out this morning....into a measured move to 77 at the moment,,,

As it did CanOz but it may only turn out to be a skinny little tail on my chart. It is the fat candles that hold my interest. I start watching the POG from the Victorian time 10pm when the New York Spot Gold chart opens up on Kitco. On the open it fell into the chart at around the $1477 level and within 10 mins was fighting to get above $1474 again but then fell steeply to just above $1458. Now it rises strongly again as I watch, no, it's down again!.....Geez it is more fun than a WWF wrestling match!corn:

 

[CanOz]

As it did CanOz but it may only turn out to be a skinny little tail on my chart. It is the fat candles that hold my interest. I start watching the POG from the Victorian time 10pm when the New York Spot Gold chart opens up on Kitco. On the open it fell into the chart at around the $1477 level and within 10 mins was fighting to get above $1474 again but then fell steeply to just above $1458. Now it rises strongly again as I watch, no, it's down again!.....Geez it is more fun than a WWF wrestling match!corn:

I trade it during the european session, it's a little tamer but plenty of opportunities...it's a different animal once the pit opens...

 

[Mr Z]

Re: Oh yeah!

Why go and spoil a great headline.....

"to be margined at 100% of initial for intraday trading" just means that you have to post initial margin rather than maintenance (secondary) margin. i.e. an extra $640 (post $7040 instead of $6400) to buy 100 oz. of gold with value ~$147,500. it doesn't mean there's no leverage allowed, or that you have to post the full $147,500."

??

(ZH must have been seriously burned in the past for such vehement animosity to "the game" & the players.....)

Basically they changed the margin on their day trading activity. These positions have to be flat at the end of the day but in return you normally get leverage on the CME margin requirement. Leverage on leverage if you like! By going to 100% all they are requiring is that you post the full CME margin as apposed to a lessor % of it, this is still only ~5% of the notional contract value. It is no where near 100% contract margin as the headline suggests!

Basically all this is saying is that this particular broker is expecting bigger volatility going forward and they want to make sure that its day traders have plenty of padding.

That is interesting, but it is a whole world away from a 100% contract margin as the headline implied!

Gotta love gold, it is spin all round, 24/7

 

[Ves]

That is one bizarre chart!

Is it Captain Hook coming to get the gold bugs?

 

[tinhat]

Is it Captain Hook coming to get the gold bugs?

irate:

 

[Ann]

Ann,

I have found that gold increasingly responds a particular driving currency that is not always the USD. This seems to make horizontal support/resistance secondary to sloping support/resistance lines (speed lines as I call them). The latter seems to better allow for the relative nature of the currency market. IMO you really need to look at Gold in Euro, Yen and the USD before sticking a peg in the ground.



Maybe so much BS but it works for the way I tend to draw lines these days

Z the way I figure it, if it works for you, do it! However when I look at the chart Gringotts Bank was kind enough to post it just looked like his cat had been sitting on his chart! Very Furry! (Sorry Gringotts Bank, I mean no offence to you and appreciate you taking the time to post the chart).

I am not into busy, busy charts with **** all over the place, I find it a total distraction. That's what my charts looked like when I first started playing with computer charts. I found it took me nowhere and told me nothing. I prefer to be as zen as possible when I am charting and stick with the KISS principle. If I looked at gold in the Euro, Yen as well as the USD I would simply muddy my charting waters and move further from zen. Works for me!

 

[Mr Z]

I am not into busy, busy charts with **** all over the place, I find it a total distraction. That's what my charts looked like when I first started playing with computer charts. I found it took me nowhere and told me nothing. I prefer to be as zen as possible when I am charting and stick with the KISS principle. If I looked at gold in the Euro, Yen as well as the USD I would simply muddy my charting waters and move further from zen. Works for me!

It is not as confusing as you make it sound!

They are often very coincident

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Oh yeah!

That is interesting, but it is a whole world away from a 100% contract margin as the headline implied!

Gotta love gold, it is spin all round, 24/7

Yep. You can pipe it straight into your brain 24/7.... :scratch:

 

[Trembling Hand]

What about the fact that for every ounce of gold there are now more than 100 paper contracts.

What about the fact that that is total and utter BS? :1zhelp:

 

[Mr Z]

What about the fact that that is total and utter BS? :1zhelp:

That was Jeff Christian's words regards the LBMA participants being 100:1 on their unallocated metal. It is a fractional reserve system and I think all participants realize that. They want exposure to gold and a willing to take the credit risk on the likes of JPM, simple really, not so nefarious.

Bron (Perth Mint) seemed to suggest that it was actually closer to 10:1, he'd probably know as much as most anyone on that front.

The goldbug world has it that this also applies to allocated metal, I dunno how they'd manage that, you have bar numbers that are your bars and you have a clear legal agreement. It would clearly be fraud and I would imagine someone at some point would have sued if it where not above board.

We did have the case of JPM charging storage on silver in unallocated accounts when there was no silver at all, so they are not above pulling a stroke or two. They got nailed for it....mind you paying storage on unallocated marks you out as a patsy anyway!

This is one of those "facts" that has slipped its moorings and been applied to the whole gold world, erroneously, obviously.

The gold forum world, including many of the writers that support it, is just a big game of Chinese whispers. Some grain of a fact goes in one end and pretty reliably "Comex default" or one of another few standard outputs comes out the other!

Guys, you really do need to dig and think! The bulls and the bears on gold are typically full of BS! It must be the most polluted investment space there is!

.... but as a dealer friend of my says ---> "This is the business we have chosen!", occasionally I wonder WHY!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Guys, you really do need to dig and think! The bulls and the bears on gold are typically full of BS! It must be the most polluted investment space there is!

.... but as a dealer friend of my says ---> "This is the business we have chosen!", occasionally I wonder WHY!

It's something that at times is an amusing watch. The bugs always call for $10,000 gold next year because of the default of the shorts because "100:1" ratio etc. Problem is, I guess, with an uninformed view a few get sucked into an easy trade, put too much on and end up in a mess. Got a mate that put half his super into physical because after going to a seminar "more gold bonds trade in a day than there is gold" (his words, I'm assuming he meant futs!). He has been waiting for a default for 3 years.

Hardly the smartest hypotheses to base an all in trade on.

 

[explod]

In my view T/H it is about Guvt/bank money printing to stimulate business activity.

That act alone is devaluating/diluting the value of paper money; which equals a large inflation number not counted by mainstream.

I invested a third of my super in physical in 2004 and it was one of the best investments I ever made.

Except the one out of Perth, all other ETF's and the gold paper trade are not backed by any real substance. I care nought for it all, or how, will, or does it work in fine detail. As you know it is my strong view that the very act of shorting is unethical and contradicts the principles of a free market. Of course these principles were introduced to give the so called powers a way of creating order in markets but it did not take them too long to work out ways to use them to rob ordinary sheeple. The bundled housing loans in the US a great example of where banks shorted a product that had been sold to innocents worldwide. Some aussie insitutional (Councils) super funds were caught in this too.

So I am on a different planet and believe that you will one day be pleased to get a few spuds off me for just a handshake.

 

[Mr Z]

Except the one out of Perth, all other ETF's and the gold paper trade are not backed by any real substance.

Do you really think that the published SLV bar list is fake?

 

[explod]

Do you really think that the published SLV bar list is fake?

Catigorically I do not know.

However there have been warnings on ETF's for some years now and to be frank, apart from a short term trade in AU/GOLD, 2007, would never touch them now.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I invested a third of my super in physical in 2004 and it was one of the best investments I ever made.

As you know it is my strong view that the very act of shorting is unethical and contradicts the principles of a free market.

But did you not short currency, your very own country's, in that very trade? Does that not contradict you strong ethical principles?

Except the one out of Perth, all other ETF's and the gold paper trade are not backed by any real substance. I care nought for it all, or how, will, or does it work in fine detail.

I think we can all agree that in spite of your decades following the very subject that its true. You don't know much about it.

So I am on a different planet and believe that you will one day be pleased to get a few spuds off me for just a handshake.

Or maybe we can swap a part of your small PM fortune for the last of my Autumn tommarts one day.

 

[nulla nulla]

But did you not short currency, your very own country's, in that very trade? Does that not contradict you strong ethical principles?



I think we can all agree that in spite of your decades following the very subject that its true. You don't know much about it.



Or maybe we can swap a part of your small PM fortune for the last of my Autumn tommarts one day.

View attachment 52027

you could make a nice tomato relish or chutney with that lot.

 

[explod]

Or maybe we can swap a part of your small PM fortune for the last of my Autumn tommarts one day.

Love it, just pure edible gold

 

[explod]

But did you not short currency, your very own country's, in that very trade? Does that not contradict you strong ethical principles?

Very different to leasing someone elses shares (mostly without their knowledge) and selling them to buy back at a lower level. And the very methods of selling often done to help drop the price also.

Where is the level playing field?

or ethics?

 

[Mr Z]

Very different to leasing someone elses shares (mostly without their knowledge) and selling them to buy back at a lower level. And the very methods of selling often done to help drop the price also.

Where is the level playing field?

or ethics?

That is a standard short sale, if you use a margin account it is in the agreement that "your" shares may be lent out for short selling. Otherwise they cannot touch your stock without your consent!

There are some questionable practices in the US involving naked short sales but they generally target weak companies, not ETF's. That is all very murky and hard to get a handle on.