Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Lone Wolf]

All amounts. Try to buy some for immediate delivery into your own hand Monday.

Thanks for the reply.

I'd still say that the price of gold is the price you pay to acquire physical gold. It may not be delivered Monday, but so long as I do get it for that price, then that's the price.

Coins are worth more than the metal they're made from because people are willing to pay a premium above the price of real gold to acquire coin. So I'd argue that the coin market is not the price of real gold.

Anyway, the above is only my opinion and as I said, I'm out of the loop with gold and don't really know what I'm talking about. I'll read your links, thanks.

 

[sinner]

I have no issues purchasing physical gold for immediate delivery, in size, right now, from my regular bullion dealer. I could walk in there today. In fact, from what I have seen, premiums over spot for physical are much tighter than they were before the decline, in most cases we are talking a 50-60% reduction in premiums over spot. So, explod, I have no idea what you are basing your claims on.

 

[sinner]

It has proved to me that JPM are watching what I say at all times as all my calls (all of them) go the other way.

Right, of the two possibilities:

1. Your gold calls are consistently wrong because your entire investment hypothesis is wrong
2. JPM is watching your gold calls here on ASF and moving markets against you,

The second one is eminently more feasible.

 

[Ann]

Chillout Dudes!!!!

Darn interesting read Z! It is a real breath of fresh air reading someting that lacks BS and hype!





I have just dropped a silver chart in the silver thread which is showing a very bearish pattern for silver, the same Ascending Broadening Wedge (upward tilting megaphone) which I put up on this thread just before gold fell spectacularly just recently.

Silver is gold's shadow and sometimes a shadow can be seen ahead of the subject. Here is a link to the silver chart i just put up. #879 https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&page=44&p=768921#post768921

 

[explod]

Right, of the two possibilities:

1. Your gold calls are consistently wrong because your entire investment hypothesis is wrong
2. JPM is watching your gold calls here on ASF and moving markets against you,

The second one is eminently more feasible.

Rubbish, have a careful read of my call last Friday night.

It is all just a bit of fun because most here still believe in the Keyensian System of economics. I began buying physical in 2004 and have continued since. So far ahead on that score I could care less about the shorter term trading.

 

[Joules MM1]

Why is it a "short term" uptrend
Its been going up for the last decade.
We really need to be looking at the $1,560 range right now.
Sure some sell stops will be pressed, as in Fridays trade, but no one is asleep at the wheel here.
Unlike three weeks ago when it crashed, that was just so stupid.
And to hear all the idiots come out of the little door in the Cookoo Clock bleating "end of bull run for gold"
Really stupid.
Why?
Because its not the end of any "bull run" for gold.
I don't know if anyone noticed by what it is is the end of the Bull run for the US $ over the last 40 years.

ok,

(once upon a time I would have taken time to waffle in reply......why waffle, a yes-youre-right-youre-dead-right suffices)

 

[Mr Z]

Darn interesting read Z! It is a real breath of fresh air reading someting that lacks BS and hype!

Bron is the guy who helped hooked me up at depositary services, he was very helpful answered my many queries about the market way back then. He is probably one of the least skewed commentators I read and he has a direct professional interest without having to sell you anything.

Yes, refreshing.... there is so much denial and crap on BOTH sides of this market, it always seems to polarize and in the process the truth gets very lost and much harder to find. Someone here keeps saying people see what they want to see, but they don't seem to allow for that fact that it applies to all of us!

I don't think I can name another market with so much emotional baggage all round! It gets wearing , it is a bling thing, love it, hate it.... the slogan should be ----> Gold, the bipolar metal!

JMO.... you know. :

CYA

 

[Mr Z]

I'm a bit out of the loop when it comes to the gold situation so excuse me if this is a stupid question...

Perth mint is selling 1oz gold bars for $1465. 10oz bars for $14376. The spot price is currently $1430. All in AUD.

So when you say the spot price is no longer the price of real gold. What do you mean?

Are you saying that the advertised bars from perth mint aren't in stock? And therefore if you want physical today you'll need to pay above perth mint rates to acquire it from someone else?

Is this just for small amounts though? Or for all quantities of gold? If the shortage is only on small quantities, then is that really a gold shortage, or just a temporary shortage in a specific form of gold? What form of gold do you consider "real gold" ie. coins, 1oz bars, 400oz bars?

Bars cost money to make! Perth Mint charges spot + fabrication cost + profit and in the wider secondary market the premium over spot will float based on demand and availability but on average it has to cover the mint cost etc and the dealers margin. Generally the bigger the bar the lower the premium per oz you are paying and typically a dealer will buy to replace inventory at that point in time so todays cost is what is passed on to you. Think of a dealers gold stock as a till float, it is always about the same amount and they only care that they profit on the turn over on any given day.

Yes, we are talking product shortage, not gold.

 

[Mr Z]

So I'd argue that the coin market is not the price of real gold.

ABSOLUTELY! It is a market unto itself that while it is derivative of the gold market it very much needs to be understood on its own merits. Some coins have a value so far in excess of the gold content that POG matters little, most bullion coins are far more connected, but some like ASE's are a cut above others.... based purely on supply v sentiment!

If you want gold buy ugly blocks of it, it the end, when this market peaks the premium will disappear on most product and so much suspect stuff will be around that everything sold to a mint will be on a "melt and assay basis", spot - X, X depending on supply. History has taught us that much

 

[explod]

ABSOLUTELY! It is a market unto itself that while it is derivative of the gold market it very much needs to be understood on its own merits. Some coins have a value so far in excess of the gold content that POG matters little, most bullion coins are far more connected, but some like ASE's are a cut above others.... based purely on supply v sentiment!

If you want gold buy ugly blocks of it, it the end, when this market peaks the premium will disappear on most product and so much suspect stuff will be around that everything sold to a mint will be on a "melt and assay basis", spot - X, X depending on supply. History has taught us that much

I do not disagree.

My interest is not in coins but the metal, merely mentioned them as I thought a good option.

The larger more established dealers in Melb City by interest of the public have increasingly since around 2007 become involved in metal bars. I used to deal specifically with Johnson Matthey who closed their doors here in Melbourne around 2008 so rather than the cumbersome excercised of going to Perth opted for the shop fronts.

Not sure how large Wrights would go but have dealt with them and Divis at the 5 kilo level, my nearest coin dealer in the outer burb too.

Anyhow just

 

[explod]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/04/28/china-goes-gold-crazy-why-now/

This confirms the tid-bits I was picking up myself around the traps the last few weeks.

I am of the view that the genral public do not have a clue at this stage and the gold rush has still not begun.

We shall see.

 

[Trembling Hand]

perth-mint-feels-gold-buying-frenzy

 

[explod]

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/04/29/another-big-selloff-coming-for-gold/

The big company techos say gold to go down near to UA$1100

They are selective in the chart time frame. The picture since 1999 shows a whole different story if one wants to rely on the technical side. This one presents a good picture of that:-

http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/gold98-l.html

We have good support at $1400 (going back to 2005) and yes it could collapse to $1100 and the bull remain intact.

Fundamentally (which is not discussed) by those calling for or thinking gold will collapse, in my view puts them in dreamland. The way in which gold went down, most often after market closes and around weekends, did not go unnoticed by regulators or the investment community. I do not think it will be achieved again in that way for a long time. However articles like that above will continue to have some effect. Certainly not happening to those chasing physical.

On the Privateer 14 year chart (per above link) the uptrend range is now between the US$1400 and $2300 area. I can see no evidence that this will change or that the bull run in gold is anywhere over. When the printing presses stop debasing paper money then maybe.

 

[Mr Z]

I still suspect that there is more to come in May. Probably a new low, possibly just a test of the old one, we are close one way or the other.

JMO.



http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...lly-as-goldman-closes-short-wager-commodities

 

[Mr Z]

Here is a little blood pressure tonic for those that let it get to them

http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeDailyBlog?mode=PostView&bmi=1267250

 

[explod]

Though he has always been bullish gold overall because the unbacked paper currency system, James Turk I have felt makes his case sensibly and backed by facts. The following is part of a discussion he had yesterday with King World News:

The short position in both gold and silver is now so huge, it won't take much to push the shorts into a buying panic. I have been looking for possible triggers that could panic the shorts, and we got a hint last week of one possible event which may do this. Because of various problems, there have been news reports that Barrick is considering what to do with its huge Pascua-Lama deposit after a Chilean court ordered it to stop development work.
The project is already well behind schedule, with big cost overruns from its initial plan, but here's the important point: The market has been expecting that when production begins, the mine would produce 800,000 ounces of gold and 35 million ounces of silver annually. Those ounces will of course never materialize if development work remains suspended.
But also consider that according to its 31 March 2013 financial report, Barrick has hedged 65 million ounces of silver, which is 8% of the world's annual silver production. What is the bullion bank, who sold that hedge to Barrick, going to do if those 65 million ounces don't get mined and delivered to it?
What is Barrick going to do if the bullion bank forces it to deliver physical silver to close the hedge? What are the shorts in silver going to do when they realize that there is a potential time bomb here that could substantially reduce the near-term forecast of silver supply?
In other words, it is pure insanity to be short silver here, and for that matter, gold as well. Round two of the buying panic may be just around the corner when the paper shorts rush to the exits. They will learn the age-old and time-proven adage about the precious metals, namely, that it is easy to sell gold and silver in large quantities, but very, very difficult to buy in size."

Applies to the silver thread too but do not want to drive you all as nuts as l am.

 

[Mr Z]

The short position in both gold and silver is now so huge,.....

I don't think that we are really at an extreme, not at least in the data I am looking at! The commercials are as close to net long as they have been in a while and while the total OI is high in Silver its not really record breaking in Gold. At least that is what I am looking at, anyone got better data? Got a chart explod? What exactly is he referring too? COT looks bullish, but it is not a good market timing tool!

 

[Trembling Hand]

, James Turk I have felt makes his case sensibly and backed by facts.

Ha! I think what you consider as facts is not what the rest of the sane world does. But carry on.....

I don't think that we are really at an extreme, not at least in the data I am looking at! The commercials are as close to net long as they have been in a while and while the total OI is high in Silver its not really record breaking in Gold. At least that is what I am looking at, anyone got better data? Got a chart explod? What exactly is he referring too? COT looks bullish, but it is not a good market timing tool!

There was a 6.6 % drop in Feb. Flat March. April monthly report isn't out yet but we can be pretty safe to assume that OI greatly reduced from the daily data.

But lets just let Explod carry on with his reporting of "facts".



From http://www.cftc.gov/ but what would they know?!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Gold equities are not expecting anything big to happen any time soon, or at least they are not pre-empting
another surge in the POG?

 

[Mr Z]

Gold equities are not expecting anything big to happen any time soon, or at least they are not pre-empting another surge in the POG?

Nothing strong yet and yes I would expect some relative strength.

We are not there yet IMO.

COT suggests that the commercials will add about another 10% to their net long side before they settle down.

JMO.

Close but I'm not giving out cigars just yet