Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Mr Z]

There was a 6.6 % drop in Feb. Flat March. April monthly report isn't out yet but we can be pretty safe to assume that OI greatly reduced from the daily data.

Look at the OI in Silver expanding into the lower price. What do you make of that? Someone is getting this very wrong by the looks of it! Which side?!

 

[Ageo]

The interesting thing is that while the price of gold is falling the world is having gold shortages which hasnt been seen in a very long time..... Contradicting eh??

The day gold price reflects the physical movement and not the paper style we are seeing is when things will become more interesting.

 

[Mr Z]

The interesting thing is that while the price of gold is falling the world is having gold shortages which hasnt been seen in a very long time..... Contradicting eh??

The day gold price reflects the physical movement and not the paper style we are seeing is when things will become more interesting.

Product shortages.... not gold shortages, the supply chain for these products is not huge so when demand swings up wildly they run dry for a while till they catchup again. It has happened before and will happen again.

 

[Ann]

I have been expecting this flag on the inverted flagpole to break downward. So far gold is looking a bit fragile tonight, perhaps tonight is the night?

 

[CanOz]

I have been expecting this flag on the inverted flagpole to break downward. So far gold is looking a bit fragile tonight, perhaps tonight is the night?

I "one-time framed" it down for the last three hours, not a buyer in site....wouldn't be surprised to see it crack tonight at all!

CanOz

 

[Ann]

I have been expecting this flag on the inverted flagpole to break downward. So far gold is looking a bit fragile tonight, perhaps tonight is the night?

Gold held on strongly and lifted back up onto the lower support line of the flag formation. If this continues, what is a bearish flag may well turn into a bullish rising channel. Now back to watching the bearish megaphone on Silver's chart!

 

[Ann]

Now taking a closer look at the long term chart I can see a very strong resistance line coming from May 2011 of $1474. This may be a very hard resistance to break through as it held from May to July 2011 with a number of attempts to get over the resistance of $1474.


Sell in May, go away! Looks like it!

 

[Ann]

Now taking a closer look at the long term chart I can see a very strong resistance line coming from May 2011 of $1474. This may be a very hard resistance to break through as it held from May to July 2011 with a number of attempts to get over the resistance of $1474.


Sell in May, go away! Looks like it!

Well that was all a load of crap! Up too late at night....it is a bloody support line and it held firm over May to July 2011 and remained solid in support after being tested twice. So I am still handing out $1474 as a potential overhead resistance line. Geez!

 

[Mr Z]

Keep it simple, the Dow is at highs, we are into May, profits will be taken as they go into summer in the US & the DOW should correct ~ 10%. The USDX still looks OK here, IMO it will make ~85. This all looks risk off into summer, I can't see gold or gold stocks rallying into the face of that.

 

[Mr Z]

Well that was all a load of crap! Up too late at night....it is a bloody support line and it held firm over May to July 2011 and remained solid in support after being tested twice. So I am still handing out $1474 as a potential overhead resistance line. Geez!

Ann,

I have found that gold increasingly responds a particular driving currency that is not always the USD. This seems to make horizontal support/resistance secondary to sloping support/resistance lines (speed lines as I call them). The latter seems to better allow for the relative nature of the currency market. IMO you really need to look at Gold in Euro, Yen and the USD before sticking a peg in the ground.



Maybe so much BS but it works for the way I tend to draw lines these days

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Ann,

I have found that gold increasingly responds a particular driving currency that is not always the USD. This seems to make horizontal support/resistance secondary to sloping support/resistance lines (speed lines as I call them). The latter seems to better allow for the relative nature of the currency market. IMO you really need to look at Gold in Euro, Yen and the USD before sticking a peg in the ground.



Maybe so much BS but it works for the way I tend to draw lines these days

I also. Angled trendlines > support/resistance. NCM looks ready to begin a move up when the trendline breaks.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Look at the OI in Silver expanding into the lower price. What do you make of that? Someone is getting this very wrong by the looks of it! Which side?!

Yeah its 30% higher than this time last year but from my read its the producers who have increased their short positions (don't tell explod though, facts and all!) against raising longs of hot money.

Seen this? Just found it I like it.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/cftc-tff/main.html

 

[explod]

Oh! and as the old ratbag of ignorance there is another source I like "Goldtrends.com" and the newsletter today talks of thier take on support and resistance for the paper gold circus.

Going to the gold chart, we’re right at weekly support in the 1439-1445 area. This is strong support for this week. The other place to watch is that horizontal line at 1425. This is the area that gold broke out above last week and would be another support point to watch. The FED notes come out at 2:15 pm time today and while there’s a high chance that the FED will be accommodative in their remarks, the control boyz can always do what they want on the short term and could certainly spike the price under 1439 to clear out the stops. The economic data was again weak this morning and ADP numbers leave the potential for the Non Farm Payroll numbers on Friday to be weak. That is another report that is a favorite for the control boyz to wreck havoc in the gold market. In summary, gold is at the weekly support point at around 1440. The green 200 hour moving average is there and the lower dotted white channel line at around 1436-1439 is also a point to watch for support. The closing price is the key as a spike by the control boyz on the FOMC news could very well take place. Of NOTE also is they just happened to choose this date (MAY 1st) when 10 important world markets are closed for Holiday, including China and India. Coincidence you ask? I doubt it very much.

 

[prawn_86]

I'm slightly confised. I have a few ounces of gold, if i go to a store to sell them, are members here suggesting that the price i will be offered will not be a margin off the current spot (paper) price?? Or can i still get 1700 an ounce for my physical gold?

 

[Ann]

Well that was all a load of crap! Up too late at night....it is a bloody support line and it held firm over May to July 2011 and remained solid in support after being tested twice. So I am still handing out $1474 as a potential overhead resistance line. Geez!

$1474 held strong even though POG pushed hard a number of times to break through, eventually appeared to give up and just flat lined it to the close. Included is a chart of last night's price action from Kitco.

 

[FlyingFox]

I'm slightly confised. I have a few ounces of gold, if i go to a store to sell them, are members here suggesting that the price i will be offered will not be a margin off the current spot (paper) price?? Or can i still get 1700 an ounce for my physical gold?

If there is such a place I would like to know ...

 

[explod]

If there is such a place I would like to know ...

Price ranges between AU$1550 and 1800 on ebay.

 

[FlyingFox]

Price ranges between AU$1550 and 1800 on ebay.

For what exactly? Are we talking 1 oz coins? bars? or 100oz bars?

 

[prawn_86]

I'm slightly confised. I have a few ounces of gold, if i go to a store to sell them, are members here suggesting that the price i will be offered will not be a margin off the current spot (paper) price?? Or can i still get 1700 an ounce for my physical gold?

If i go to a store, not Ebay, will i be able to get a price that is not related to the current spot rate? I dont feel comfortable selling my gold on Ebay

 

[CanOz]

$1474 held strong even though POG pushed hard a number of times to break through, eventually appeared to give up and just flat lined it to the close. Included is a chart of last night's price action from Kitco.

Might take it out this morning....into a measured move to 77 at the moment,,,